In today's Times, Juliet Samuel writes as follows:
The question was originally asked in 1908 but one could pose it today. Incredulously, the Daily Express had asked: “Is Britain going to surrender her maritime supremacy to provide old-age pensions?” We did not, in the event, prioritise pensions: a few years later, war readiness moved to the fore in response to German expansionism. But in the long term the answer was a firm “yes”. Pensions and old age benefits now soak up three times as much as defence.
Our situation is becoming increasingly perverse. Over the past week, much of Europe was transfixed by a fresh set of warnings about the threats facing Nato. Last Thursday, the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, gave an unscheduled statement to his parliament warning of intelligence suggesting Russia plans to test Nato with a new level of “hybrid drone and missile strikes” on Ukraine’s allies over coming months. The next day, Emmanuel Macron summoned leaders of all parties to a three-hour briefing in the Elysée, where intelligence chiefs scared the bejesus out of everyone. One participant described a sense of “vertigo” at the gravity of the situation and even the usually pro-Moscow leaders of National Rally (Le Pen’s party) warned afterwards that France would not be “intimidated” by Russia.
Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that Germany is deeply engaged in scenario planning for its hospitals to handle 1,000 war wounded a day. The Guardian quoted the Czech intelligence chief warning of Russian “false-flag provocations”. Germany and Sweden carried out a training exercise to reinforce Gotland, a strategically important island in the Baltic sea. Russia imposed a curfew near its border with Estonia and sent drones over one of Nato’s most vulnerable points, according to reports, while Nato stepped up spy plane activity nearby.
For those who say, "No need to worry, it's scaremongering, it'll never happen" – I ask the following question: "If Russia attacks (say) defence manufacturing facilities in Europe on the grounds that they're providing munitions for Ukraine, what do we do about it? What happens next?"
The political and military realities of the 21st century mean that bad guys have a significant psychological advantage...