Our Options for Coming out of Lockdown

[petermisc]

Apologies if none of this seems new to some of you, but I think we seem to have rather lost sight of the bigger picture in some of our recent discussions.   As I see it, we have three options for how to come out of lockdown:

1)   we lift most if not all of the restrictions now, and go back to pretty much where we were in mid-March (bearing in mind that in most of the country outside London only a small proportion have had the virus).  We accept that there will be a significant number of people who will die (likely in the hundreds of thousands), and the NHS will be overwhelmed (so a significant number of young people will also die through lack of treatment).  However, after the virus has played itself out in about six months or so, the survivors will be able to get back to a normal life.  Our tourism industry, our status as an airline hub and all the associated businesses will have died, because no-one will want to come here, and the resultant job losses are likely to be massive.

2)   We partially lift restrictions, allowing the number of infections to increase to a level that can just be managed by the NHS and the Nightingale hospitals.  In practice, depending on how much the restrictions were lifted, that would happen in a couple of weeks or so, when we would then have to re-impose restrictions to stop the virus spiralling further out of control.  If you remember back to the first Horizon programme, and the graphs of the various flattening measures, the effect of flattening a mountain into a molehill is that you end up with an exceptionally big molehill.  Effectively, we would have locked ourselves into a state little better than we are in now, for many years, unless a vaccine could be rolled-out.

3)   We maintain the restrictions until the numbers being infected are negligible, and the risk is small enough that we can return to normal life.  And I mean normal life, where pubs and restaurants and tourism are operating normally, not a phony 2m-distancing “new-normal”.  Like the Asian countries achieved with SARS, without a vaccine.  Just like nearly-every other country in the world is aiming for, and in some cases have just about achieved.  Admittedly the return to normal life would need to be cautious, as flare-ups would inevitably occur.  I think this is what the government were hoping could happen after about a month or so of lockdown.  Unfortunately, by the time the lockdown was imposed in the UK, the numbers infected were so large that it has taken a lot longer to get there.  However, according to recent news, we are only about two weeks or so away from that point in London, although longer in the rest of the country.  To me, this really does seem the “no brainer” option.  I am mystified as to why some people keep pushing for either of the alternatives, other than those who despite all the evidence are still in denial about the seriousness of this virus.

[Kev40ish]

It’s simple really..
Protect the vulnerable, unfortunately there will be a two tier system. Those at risk stay locked down, everyone else goes back to normal..

[jesse4585]

It's almost certainly going to be something between options 2 & 3 IMO.  Which is a great shame for punters like myself who live alone & are getting rather sex starved. And for WGs desperate for cash.

It would sadly be madness to move too quickly in the direction of letting infections rise. Once R is above 1, they can start to rise exponentially, which can easily mean far to fast to control.

[Chorley]

Ask Dominic Cummings. 

[Kev40ish]

Ask Dominic Cummings. 

Do what ever you want then for the safety of your family then?
Nothing wrong with that

[Stapler]

What lockdown? 
We’ve been going out ever since celebrities, sports stars and politicians said they had the virus with no realistic proof!

[Spencer Fobby]

Whatever the process, we will ultimately end up with a 2 tier 'new normal':

The workplace, the shops, the places where insurance/law/prosecution/authority resides will continue the fallacy of anti-social distancing.

The real world where friends meet and the important things of life take place will increasingly say "I'm ok, you're ok, fuck this bollocks, give me a hug". 

For a long time to come - and for some time after the majority of the public have grown to accept covid19 as a virus with a similar risk profile to flu (I'm not saying "it's just flu") - we will conform publicly to bullshit rules because we don't want to offend others and don't want to be singled out as non-conformist psychopaths.  But underneath the bullshit, most of us know that 2 meters isn't going to save you when you're in an enclosed space and someone with the virus coughs. 

Trace and Trace and immunity passports are the real danger as people sleepwalk into allowing more draconian rules and surrendering their liberty and turning on those who don't toe the line... 

[King Nuts]

Trace and Trace and immunity passports are the real danger as people sleepwalk into allowing more draconian rules and surrendering their liberty and turning on those who don't toe the line...

Who's going to check these alleged passports? It's not like we've got a Stasi office on every street corner.

[Stapler]

To quote that dickhead David Lammy, 'we haven't seen a police' - round our way!

[funfungoodguy]

New Rules as of today...   
1) How long will it be before  a Punter or WG gets that 'phonecall to say somebody who will not be identified to them, has notified they were in proximity to a carrier - That'll be a sure fire way to delay punting  for a bit longer....   

and

2) How long will it be until the first prosecution for somebody using that to falsely notify they were near a person they want to maliciously render housebound ?

[fastnet]

Point 1
Not sure a WG could ever give anyone enough details to enable them to track or trace me. All she knows is the name I gave her and the unlisted punting phone number I use. Punting phone is turned off between punts.

Point 2
Interesting question.

[kippydon]

obviously some people do not give there real names and if you have to pass information on,  how do you know these people will engage and also mobile numbers are always changing

i think track and trace without the app is total waste of time

[Gloodz]

Honestly, from the outside looking in I honestly believe that the UK should be the absolute last country on earth to consider relaxing lockdown measures. You have the highest number of deaths on a per capita per geographic area basis; in layman's terms, there is a large fire with a lot of kindling right near by. The only other region that comes close to comparing is New York City, which has the luxury of not comprising an entire country.

Being out of the UK means I have seen how the UK's covid situation is reported on by both foreign news broadcasts and the BBC, and let me tell you, the wrong one is displaying a sense of urgency in that equation. Many expats that I speak to are increasingly worried for our friends and loved ones in the UK given the governments frankly erratic and concerning responses (or indeed, lack of them in the initial stages).

If you want a serious answer regarding de-escalation of lockdown, then the British government would do well to wait until the number of daily deaths falls well below 100, then wait until the number of new cases falls to a near 0 stable level for 2 weeks, then ensure hospitals carry enough testing kits and supplies to accommodate the needs of each and every community. After these checkpoints are reached, they will probably copy the Australian 3 point plan of de-escalation, wherein occupancy capacities of cafes/restaurants are raised incrementally, travel restrictions are relaxed, and businesses are reopened on a case-by-case basis (i.e. gyms and public pools reopened last).

[lostandfound]

obviously some people do not give there real names and if you have to pass information on,  how do you know these people will engage and also mobile numbers are always changing

i think track and trace without the app is total waste of time

Apparently PHE intends to hang on to personal details entered into the app for 20 years. On that basis people I know will not use it.

[Chorley]

Apparently PHE intends to hang on to personal details entered into the app for 20 years. On that basis people I know will not use it.

Fuck that! 

[southcoastpunter]

If you want a serious answer regarding de-escalation of lockdown, then the British government would do well to wait until the number of daily deaths falls well below 100, then wait until the number of new cases falls to a near 0 stable level for 2 weeks, then ensure hospitals carry enough testing kits and supplies to accommodate the needs of each and every community. After these checkpoints are reached, they will probably copy the Australian 3 point plan of de-escalation, wherein occupancy capacities of cafes/restaurants are raised incrementally, travel restrictions are relaxed, and businesses are reopened on a case-by-case basis (i.e. gyms and public pools reopened last).

that's a lot of "waits"  in your statement. The government have to try to balance all the issues not just one. Of course the safest things to do is to tell everyone to stay home and not go out at all until Xmas. But the public probably wouldn't do it and there would be nothing to go out to in the end anyway - no jobs, no shops, no health service no nothing - except a bankrupt country! its not an easy job for Boris  and he hasn't done everything well (some good but some pretty poor too) but its about balancing a number of different things. Apart from the economy and jobs and national debt etc,  i have heard some youngsters say things like " well we under 40's are low risk yet we are having to suffer all these restrictions, why not just protect the old and vunerable - oh and its us that will pay for it over our working lives" - so there are different views and lots of things to take into account and balance.

(that is not my view btw - just one that i have heard)

[Spencer Fobby]

that's a lot of "waits"  in your statement. The government have to try to balance all the issues not just one. Of course the safest things to do is to tell everyone to stay home and not go out at all until Xmas. But the public probably wouldn't do it and there would be nothing to go out to in the end anyway - no jobs, no shops, no health service no nothing - except a bankrupt country! its not an easy job for Boris  and he hasn't done everything well (some good but some pretty poor too) but its about balancing a number of different things. Apart from the economy and jobs and national debt etc,  i have heard some youngsters say things like " well we under 40's are low risk yet we are having to suffer all these restrictions, why not just protect the old and vunerable - oh and its us that will pay for it over our working lives" - so there are different views and lots of things to take into account and balance.

(that is not my view btw - just one that i have heard)

It’s an opinion that I share and I’m over 50. I’m sick of people pontificating from a position of economic safety and condemning those who see continued lockdown as a destructive tragedy that will haunt us for a generation. Globally we are going to see famine take more lives that this virus.
Just end it now.

[Adoniron]

The government got it wrong at the start by giving up tracing and locking down too late and too lightly and now they're going to compound that error by lifting the restrictions too soon. The rate of infection is still far too high.
Although the elderly and those in ill health are the most vulnerable anyone can get it and anyone can die from it and the young who only get mild or even no symptoms can easily infect those close to them. What's the answer? There is no satisfactory answer. Trashing the economy isn't acceptable and nor is several hundred thousand deaths.

[Beamer]

The government got it wrong at the start by giving up tracing and locking down too late and too lightly and now they're going to compound that error by lifting the restrictions too soon. The rate of infection is still far too high.
Although the elderly and those in ill health are the most vulnerable anyone can get it and anyone can die from it and the young who only get mild or even no symptoms can easily infect those close to them. What's the answer? There is no satisfactory answer. Trashing the economy isn't acceptable and nor is several hundred thousand deaths.

You paint a depressing picture for the grand kids!
This is when we need to forget party divisions and at least pull or push in the same direction.  But then you have the government bringing forward a track and trace system (that is obviously not ready to launch) to push the current Cummings situation off the front pages.
As they said in Dad's Army.... we are all doomed, I say, all doomed.

[Spencer Fobby]

The government got it wrong at the start by giving up tracing and locking down too late and too lightly and now they're going to compound that error by lifting the restrictions too soon. The rate of infection is still far too high.
Although the elderly and those in ill health are the most vulnerable anyone can get it and anyone can die from it and the young who only get mild or even no symptoms can easily infect those close to them. What's the answer? There is no satisfactory answer. Trashing the economy isn't acceptable and nor is several hundred thousand deaths.

I think that's a massive over exaggeration. 
And as for the economy... it's not the economy or several hundred thousand deaths, it's the economy as well as probably as many thousands of deaths with dreadful poverty and unemployment, suicide, strokes and heart attacks and depression and divorces etc etc. or many thousands of premature deaths from the most elderly and/or infirm - but with the possibility of getting society back on its feet. It's not a nice choice. But there really is only one choice.
Anyone who thinks this nice long furlough holiday is just a bit of extra debt to deal with is being wilfully naive.

[TommyMoundfrigger]

We are all not punting until THIS is over

Just wondering when the decision will be reached that Covid is 'over'?

I doubt it will ever be eradicated.

Who decides? The ladies? Your cock? The Government?

[casio]

Simple enough for me - the minute somebody picks up the phone at LSS, BSS or Newtown. 

[tayboy]

We are all not punting until THIS is over

Just wondering when the decision will be reached that Covid is 'over'?

I doubt it will ever be eradicated.

Who decides? The ladies? Your cock? The Government?

I was thinking that given the relatively low infection rates now, many may ("the ladies") consider the risk is low enough to resume activities ?
I've not punted for almost four months now so it's my cock that's doing the thinking.
The government... well that could be a long wait.
 

[winkywanky]

The point at which it will be 'over' is to a large extent when you decide it is.

By that I mean that inevitably, at some point the infection rates and R number will become so low, and the govt-imposed restrictions become so lax, that even the overweight, diabetic, slightly paranoid punter will feel safe to dip his wick again. Matt Hancock is never going to say 'OK lads, get back in the punting saddle because no-one will die as a result'.

In the meantime, some punters are even now visiting WGs, and some will have been doing so all along, both doing their bit to prolong the agony because of their own selfishness and lack of concern for others.

[Baxter63]

The point at which it will be 'over' is to a large extent when you decide it is.

By that I mean that inevitably, at some point the infection rates and R number will become so low, and the govt-imposed restrictions become so lax, that even the overweight, diabetic, slightly paranoid punter will feel safe to dip his wick again. Matt Hancock is never going to say 'OK lads, get back in the punting saddle because no-one will die as a result'.

In the meantime, some punters are even now visiting WGs, and some will have been doing so all along, both doing their bit to prolong the agony because of their own selfishness and lack of concern for others.

I wonder what Hancock's Half Hour of nonsense will say about barbers, beauty therapists, waxers, tattooists and massagers, when the inevitable 'aye' or 'naw' pressure builds, for an answer and a re-starting?

I don't see his boss, Bollock Chops Boris, saying that he wants all hookers to 'Give it your best shots, girls. The morale of the Nation's menfolk is in your hands and....................'

[winkywanky]

I think barbers, beauty therapists, waxers, tattooists and massagers will all get a specific thumbs-up at the govt-prescribed time.

I guess 'massagers' is a good enough euphemism for those who engage in punting?

I won't be punting before that time, and even after it I'll still make my own decision, based on my own thoughts and circumstances at the time.

[David1970]

I think it will be up to punters and SP to make their own decision.
Personally I am seriously think of no punting until autumn, about October.
Some SP and punters have never stopped I guess and the majority will drift back, there will be no starters flag.

[sub_marine]

In Feb there was only a single guy in UK with covid19 who came back from a skiing holiday, but fast forward 4 months and 40k now dead.  There only needs to be a single infected person in the UK for it all to flare back up again.  My household is going to remain keeping a very low profile until something along the lines of a vaccine comes along.  Ive got older parents so it would be unthinkable for the sake of a punt to pass covid to them. 

[Clattypats]

Let's hope before the end of September, or we'll be running out of "Pre-Lockdown" reviews... 

[Matrix]

Let's hope before the end of September, or we'll be running out of "Pre-Lockdown" reviews... 

 

Aye, that and I'll need a bigger boat wheelbarrow for my balls.

[winkywanky]

Let's hope before the end of September, or we'll be running out of "Pre-Lockdown" reviews... 

Yes, the credibilty (or otherwise) will be somewhat further stretched, the longer it goes on.

[zerto]

Fair points made however with all these folk protesting, people bumping into you in the supermarket Because the can’t read arrows and all the secret pub meetings going on i think it must be about the same risk as a meet.

My logic is Possibly go for a 15 min doggystyle only meet and wear a mask.   

The force of the hoor is pulling me back lads...

[winkywanky]

You can't beat 'em, but you don't have to join em? 

[zerto]

You can't beat 'em, but you don't have to join em? 

Yeah, rational says wait 4 weeks at least... just no fun lad.

[Massagetugga]

people bumping into you in the supermarket i think it must be about the same risk as a meet

IMO unfortunately the difference is the WG or her flat/bedroom/bathroom surfaces will definitely have revolving doors of potential spreaders from potentially unscrupulous individuals.

The chances will be on the low side of catching/spreading but it’s must be about the riskiest environment. Unfortunately beauty therapists, massage, tattoos etc will indeed be almost as risky but exactly like most opinion on this, people with sense and safety in mind will no doubt be boycotting those too.

The next couple of months will be interesting to see just how low infection rates actually get.

[winkywanky]

Yeah, rational says wait 4 weeks at least... just no fun lad.

I think so. Perhaps a careful punt from mid-July, if there's no upswing in infections, if there's more Lockdown-loosening, and depending on personal circs. Likelihood of exposing others etc.

[David1970]

I know it might seem strange but this could be important, can I ask.
When you return to punting do you think it is better to take a shower at the SP flat, so to clean yourself and removed potential virus.
Or not to shower so you are not potentially touch more surfaces in her bathroom, how do you know the towel has been cleaned and not just dried?
This could pre or post punt

What about oral both ways or DFK, the exchange of bodily fluids, I take it that’s a no no?

[Clattypats]

I know it might seem strange but this could be important, can I ask.
When you return to punting do you think it is better to take a shower at the SP flat, so to clean yourself and removed potential virus.
Or not to shower so you are not potentially touch more surfaces in her bathroom, how do you know the towel has been cleaned and not just dried?
This could pre or post punt

What about oral both ways or DFK, the exchange of bodily fluids, I take it that’s a no no?

I usually have a shower before and after... I have no idea when I'll punt again... Its a case of playing it by ear... Unless the case rate and new infections is down to zero there will always be risk whenever anyone chooses to resume...

Showers, non showers, towels, bed sheets, surfaces everywhere in a flat not to mention body to body contact... Every single one will pose a risk to a certain degree... 

[winkywanky]

I know it might seem strange but this could be important, can I ask.
When you return to punting do you think it is better to take a shower at the SP flat, so to clean yourself and removed potential virus.
Or not to shower so you are not potentially touch more surfaces in her bathroom, how do you know the towel has been cleaned and not just dried?
This could pre or post punt

What about oral both ways or DFK, the exchange of bodily fluids, I take it that’s a no no?

You need to think of yourself but be able to reassure her. I think?

So for me, that would be showering at home and then driving straight there in my car. Tell her this. That way you hopefully present little risk to her. I wouldn't trust her bathroom.

Request that she showers before meeting you, and ask her to use her own, dedicated towel.

Do the business. Kissing? Hmmm. Ideally no. Bodily fluids? From what I've read on here and elsewhere, semen and pussy juice don't particularly present a problem.

Get dressed, leave.

At any point in the near to mid-future, all the above would be a good idea IMO. But even punting in the first place: what contact do you have with others in your daily life? I would factor that in too.

[winkywanky]

Oh, and when you leave, drive straight home and shower again!

Then you're back to square one.

Hopefully.

There's no certainty in any of this of course, apart from the certainty for me that I personally won't be punting until at leasy mid-July, and I'll take into account the circumstances at that time.

[winkywanky]

I usually have a shower before and after... I have no idea when I'll punt again... Its a case of playing it by ear... Unless the case rate and new infections is down to zero there will always be risk whenever anyone chooses to resume...

Showers, non showers, towels, bed sheets, surfaces everywhere in a flat not to mention body to body contact... Every single one will pose a risk to a certain degree... 

Yes, bedsheets and surfaces in the premises. Tricky.

[auldie63]

Be interesting to see what would happen if you do punt soon and a couple of days later get diagnosed with it. Under the 'track & trace', shit are you gonna come clean and say over the last 14 days I shagged so and so last Tuesday and so and so last Thursday, and if you do own up will the WGs have a note of the multitude of punters they have seen since you?
Answers on a postcard please!   

[Forthports]

I thought there’s no way I’ll be punting until the Autumn but that’s easy to say when you’re in proper lockdown and not leaving the house. A few days ago I had to run an errand into Embra. And, fuck me, I nearly cracked. Checked out who was working, told myself a load of self-justifying bollocks about how low the risk is now.

Thankfully I, literally, got a grip of myself and emptied the baws before I headed out. Close thing though. Made me realise what an addictive hobby this is!

[Cactus]

If I were to punt I’d wait until Hotels were open & book a room, then book an outcall. I’d trust a freshly made up hotel room & their cleaning staff, which will be under the microscope when lockdown lifts in that sector, over an escorts incall location. I’d shower before I got there and ask her to shower on arrival, then offer to shower myself. Do the deed, then depart separately. That way, touch wood, the only possible infection should be from the girl herself rather than previous punters & relying on the escorts cleaning skills.
Adds circa £100 or so to the cost of a punt, but if I was desperate that would be money well spent. I’d consider a longer booking with a SP I’d vetted as much as is possible.

[Kieslowski]

Covid 19 won't be over until there's a vaccine available and in mass production, and that won't be until next year. As a result, an element of social distancing is going to be with us for the foreseeable future.

SPs are probably most analogous to the "personal services" category of businesses - hairdressers etc. Those won't be allowed to reopen until we're in phase 3 of the 4-phase plan (we're currently in phase 1), and even then, they'll most likely be expected to disinfect surfaces between each client, wear masks and possibly gloves while doing whatever they do, and just generally try to minimise contact. Unless SPs are going to change their bed linen between each client, disinfect their bathroom constantly, and enforce a masks-and-gloves policy, then they're still going to be far higher risk than a hairdresser. GFE is certainly going to be off the fucking menu in that regard.

But let's be completely fucking honest here - none of that is going to happen, or at least certainly not at the scale that would be required to declare punting "safe" before a vaccine is available. Even if an SP tried to enforce strict rules in her meets, she would have no way of knowing if a client has been seeing less-strict SPs, and so even punters trying to minimise risks by only seeing extra-cautious SPs would still be at risk. So ultimately, it's going to come down to personal risk assessment, including whether you've already had the virus (you can already book a test to check for antibodies now, even if you're not a key worker) and the chances of you passing it on to someone in a high-risk category, or potentially having to explain to someone close to you how you managed to get the virus.

Perhaps if testing kits become more easily available, like popping past Boots to pick one up, you could have a punt, test yourself, and isolate until you know the result.

[youngatheart]

Covid-20 and covid-21 will be at the back of covid-19

[winkywanky]

We all have our own personal cicumstances to take into account with Covid, both for our own personal safety, and also for the safety of others, be they at home, within our general family, or even with work colleagues or simply other shoppers down the supermarket.

As we gradually come out of Lockdown, there'll necessarily be more and more personal discretion coming into play, whether that's 'govt-authorised discretion' or people simply breaking the rules in place at that time. It's inevitable.

Things will become more apparent as time goes on, but it does seem to me that vaccines have a good chance of starting to be available before the year is out, presumably within a prioritised system.

I should imagine Health/Social Care Workers will be at the top of the list, then Key Workers, then the rest of us fuckers, with perhaps the young to be done last. Added to all of those after the first group, I should imagine age and pre-existing health conditions will be taken into account?

[jambo1874]

For me, presumably when stage 4 is activated thats as safe as its gonna get

[myothernameis]

I think it all comes down to a personal decision, and if were in phase 01, or phase 04, you weigh up the risks.  Now in the next week I could go see an escort, and both of us wash down, from top, to bottom, and we have plenty of close contact, exchanging fluids, but none of us get ill

In general live I come into contact with quite a lot of members of the public, some of them coughing in your face, or even contaminating products by touching them.  I know of 8 persons in my local area who have tested positive for covid-19, at no fault of there own, they have done all they can, with in reason

If this virus is like the common cold, and will always be around and at sometime, in the next 9 - 12 months, some of us will get ill, and more likely with minor symptoms

If the rate of infections are falling, which must be good for everyone, this could be the best window, and opportunity for anyone, who weighs up the risks, but come the winter we might have to consider the real dangers, especially if infections increase, and the R no goes above 1 - 2

[S.X. MacHine]

Be interesting to see what would happen if you do punt soon and a couple of days later get diagnosed with it. Under the 'track & trace', shit are you gonna come clean and say over the last 14 days I shagged so and so last Tuesday and so and so last Thursday, and if you do own up will the WGs have a note of the multitude of punters they have seen since you?
Answers on a postcard please!   

You raise an interesting point.
There is an analogy; in the olden days (and, like me, you remember those), it was the law that if you were diagnosed with VD, as it was called then, it brought a track an trace system into operation. It was run by social workers from a nursing background. I met one such person socially in my youth.
I vaguely remember something about it being a criminal offence to have sex knowing you had the clap.