The Politics Thread

[Jerboa]

There are some mad AI going around about Nicola Sturgeon 
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[Doc Holliday]

Nobody had ever heard of the term Special Military Operation. Nato generals, military analysts and other professionals thought Russia was going to steam roll Ukraine and it be over in a week. Clausewitz argued that warfare should not be viewed as an isolated, senseless act of violence. Instead, it is a rational political instrument. When diplomacy, negotiations, and economic pressure (traditional politics) fail to achieve a state's goals, military force is deployed to compel the enemy to yield. This is what they got, Ukraine agreed to negotiations.

My understanding is the term SMO is widely recognised and has been historically used to refer to a relatively small scale rapid operation using certain military forces to achieve a rapid and specific outcome?

I am not a military strategist/historian but surely the historical work and input of people like Clausewitz is incorporated in conventional war fighting doctrine? I was asking what was 'unconventional' about the Russian operation.

Also you didn’t answer whether you thought it would be over in weeks. I am assuming you didn’t? 

[Squire Haggard]

Russia always used to be a largely Agrarian Economy, people had lots of kids, and they all helped at harvest time. Because of this, it meant that they always had a vast supply of young men (and, later, women) to send to war, they could afford to send save after wave of troops and basically overwhelm the enemy through sheer numbers. That doctrine started under the Tsars and kept going through to the present day. What hasn't kept pace is the birth rate, which has been declining over the years, so they can't do it for as long, and basic Russian racism means they'll always try to get troops from outside Russia proper, so they get them from the Far East and North Korea.

Yes, there's lots of footage of them going on near suicide missions. Often, their vehicles get hit by a drone, soldiers leap out and are then hunted by FPV drones.

I dont know how they can get people to do it. The front line has hardly changed for years, yet the Russians persist in high casualty attacks with little or zero ground gained.

[Squire Haggard]

Nicola Sturgeon finds herself struggling to log in to a website...


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Excellent.

It looks like the SNP got his trial postponed until after the May 7th elections.

[Jerboa]

My understanding is the term SMO is widely recognised and has been historically used to refer to a relatively small scale rapid operation using certain military forces to achieve a rapid and specific outcome?

I am not a military strategist/historian but surely the historical work and input of people like Clausewitz is incorporated in conventional war fighting doctrine? I was asking what was 'unconventional' about the Russian operation.

Also you didn’t answer whether you thought it would be over in weeks. I am assuming you didn’t? 

Yes terms like a SMO have been around, but not widely used afaik, the point was everyone from generals to journalists presumed it was going to be a no holds barred steamroller, similar to OIF in 2003.

Clausewitz theory is highly regarded in the Russian army, the whole 24th Feb 2022 invasion was unconventional, to start a offensive operation against a country the size of Ukraine, with approx 100k-180k troops, is absolutely unconventional. The main reason was to punch the Kiev government in the face, so they would come around to the negotiation table. If the Kiev government fell, then that would have also been a bonus to Moscow.
I like everyone else who watched it happen in Feb 2022 thought it would be all over in a week or two at the most, and there would be a sensible negotiation.

[DastardlyDick]

Sorry, I'm just calling out BS when I see it, tbf western media does keep repeating this nonsense, if Moscow had little care for it's own loses, they would have been on the right bank of the Dnieper by 2023.

One of the many problems the Russians had in Ukraine was that they thought Ukraine would fight back the way they, the Russians, had trained them to down the years, and, had they done so, you're probably right it would have lasted a few days, Zelenskyy would either be in exile, a gulag or dead, and Putin would have appointed a suitable puppet leader. Another, minor issue is that, like the Nazi's, the Russians (in general, not just the elites) believe themselves to be superior to everybody in everything, they started with the premise that they would quickly deal with the uppity Ukrainian peasants and be back for tea and medals - a bit like we did in WW1 "over by Christmas" etc.

[RedKettle]

One of the many problems the Russians had in Ukraine was that they thought Ukraine would fight back the way they, the Russians, had trained them to down the years, and, had they done so, you're probably right it would have lasted a few days, Zelenskyy would either be in exile, a gulag or dead, and Putin would have appointed a suitable puppet leader. Another, minor issue is that, like the Nazi's, the Russians (in general, not just the elites) believe themselves to be superior to everybody in everything, they started with the premise that they would quickly deal with the uppity Ukrainian peasants and be back for tea and medals - a bit like we did in WW1 "over by Christmas" etc.

It did not help that the Russians were hopeless at combined operations and left tanks isolated from infantry.  That was a major reason the attack toward Kiev failed - sorry I mean stopped early as planned. 

[Doc Holliday]

Clausewitz theory is highly regarded in the Russian army, the whole 24th Feb 2022 invasion was unconventional, to start a offensive operation against a country the size of Ukraine, with approx 100k-180k troops, is absolutely unconventional.

That may (or may not) be 'unwise' but it is not Unconventional warfare. Conventional warfare involves 'conventional weapons (not chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear ones) and battlefield tactics between two or more states in an open confrontation, in which forces are well-defined and fight using weapons that target each other’s military power'. Unconventional warfare has traditionally referred to guerrilla tactics subversion espionage etc.

The Russian invasion was wholly conventional warfare. It has of course since developed into something else which will have a huge effect on worldwide military operations going forward.

Yes terms like a SMO have been around, but not widely used afaik, the point was everyone from generals to journalists presumed it was going to be a no holds barred steamroller, similar to OIF in 2003.
 

I gave the accepted definition of a special operation above, but in relation to Putin’s SMO this was his stated purpose

"Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to bullying and genocide... for the last eight years. And for this we will strive for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine.
"And to bring to court those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation."

But as a military operation there was no detail of how this this would be achieved? It was of course deliberately vague so as not to be a declaration of war between the two countries. I understand many of the Russian generals were taken by surprise when the order was actually given to proceed and invade.

I like everyone else who watched it happen in Feb 2022 thought it would be all over in a week or two at the most, and there would be a sensible negotiation.

Thanks, I assumed incorrectly then. It could and should have been rapid. Yes, you cannot steamroller over a country the size of Ukraine rapidly, but the overall conventional battle plan was sound, against a vastly inferior Ukraine.
 
The execution was not. In particular had the battle of Kyiv (Antonov Airport) been won by Russia in the opening days/weeks (and it could and should have been) then we would likely be having a different discussion now. The regime and capital would probably have been toppled. It was a very close call but Russia lost the battle and we are where we are 4 years on.

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[Jerboa]

One of the many problems the Russians had in Ukraine was that they thought Ukraine would fight back the way they, the Russians, had trained them to down the years, and, had they done so, you're probably right it would have lasted a few days, Zelenskyy would either be in exile, a gulag or dead, and Putin would have appointed a suitable puppet leader. Another, minor issue is that, like the Nazi's, the Russians (in general, not just the elites) believe themselves to be superior to everybody in everything, they started with the premise that they would quickly deal with the uppity Ukrainian peasants and be back for tea and medals - a bit like we did in WW1 "over by Christmas" etc.

NATO was training 10,000 AFU troops a year from 2014 onwards. So they were a de facto Nato army which was the argument Russia gave.
Where is your experience of Russians thinking they are superior to others, or did you pull that out of......?

[RedKettle]

NATO was training 10,000 AFU troops a year from 2014 onwards. So they were a de facto Nato army which was the argument Russia gave.
Where is your experience of Russians thinking they are superior to others, or did you pull that out of......?

I feel a doom loop here.  Evidence would include them thinking they would get total victory in days. However as you rewrite history that they planned to have their arses kicked I guess you will not consider that evidence.

[Squire Haggard]

I feel a doom loop here.  Evidence would include them thinking they would get total victory in days. However as you rewrite history that they planned to have their arses kicked I guess you will not consider that evidence.

[mills_and_bhuna]

Nicola Sturgeon finds herself struggling to log in to a website...


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[mills_and_bhuna]

Not according to your new 'bestie'. So do you think Putin mounted a military campaign in 2022 to 'win'? By that I mean topple the Ukraine government.

It depends on what you mean by win.
Some people on here seem to think Putin had plans to occupy the whole of Ukraine and then , emboldened by this march onto Warsaw.
Putin was clearly wanting a negotiated settlement to ensure Russian security(Ukrainian neutrality, no NATO membership and a halt to the attacks in the Donbass).
Unfortunately the US plan was to undermine Russia and there was no way the proxy war they had been planning for years was going to be foiled by pesky negotiations.
Some might think Putin was played, but he really only had two choices. And none of them were good.

[Doc Holliday]

It depends on what you mean by win.

I'll give you a clue 

So do you think Putin mounted a military campaign in 2022 to 'win'? By that I mean topple the Ukraine government.

[WARSZAWA16]

"We asked 100 people to name something you might hide down the side of a house.
You said a motorhome...."


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[bigden40]

This “tale” has been widely reported.  Sorry you missed it.

This was the PMs press release:  External Link/Members Only

The ban was covered in the MSM: External Link/Members Only

He’s being sued by, among others, the Polish MP Dominik Tarczyński.

The full list of 11 people has not been released but included:
Valentina Gomez (US) — Anti-Islam/MAGA influencer who spoke at the previous rally.
Filip Dewinter (Belgium) — Politician and commentator (Vlaams Belang).
Dominik Tarczyński (Poland) — MEP/politician, who has indicated he plans to sue over the ban.
Eva Vlaardingerbroek (Netherlands) — Anti-immigration activist and commentator.
Ada Lluch (Spain) — “Far-right” personality/influencer.
Joey Mannarino (US) — Commentator.
Don Keith (US) — Podcaster

I don’t necessarily agree with any of these people but it all smacks of shutting down speech you don’t like, something this government has shown a real propensity for.

Btw Eva Vlaardingerbroek is a good candidate for the women we wish were escorts thread as is Ada Lluch

In a remarkable piece of consistency I see the government has denied entry to left-wingers Hasan Piker and Cenk Uyger so at least they’re silencing debate on the left too   

I don’t support this on either side of the spectrum. 

[bigden40]

Listen you annoying little man ... I misread and misunderstood his post as a result of trying to follow a complex discussion and unexpectedly having to look after a hyperactive four old grandchild. I apologised and sensibly retired.

When you decide to answer my posts asking you direct questions rather than just ignore them, then you can try and have a pop at my intelligence. Until you do, then shut the fuck up 

Oh and the Cuban missile crisis was a real life event not an 'extremely' hypothetical situation to try and illustrate a point.

Well said 

[WARSZAWA16]

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[Jerboa]

I feel a doom loop here.  Evidence would include them thinking they would get total victory in days. However as you rewrite history that they planned to have their arses kicked I guess you will not consider that evidence.

I don't know how many times I need to say this so you understand, the main objective in 24th Feb 2022 was to get the Kiev government to alter their policy. And this actions actually did, 24hrs after the invasion, Kiev had agreed to meet in Gomel, and Zelensky was starting to speak a little more moderately, when he said Ukraine could be neutral, this is the exact thing Moscow had wanted since the maidan coup of February 2014. Now if the Kiev regime had collapsed during the operation Moscow wouldn't shed any tears. But all the way until September 2022 Russia was willing to hand back all four occupied oblasts back to Ukraine.

[Jerboa]

It depends on what you mean by win.
Some people on here seem to think Putin had plans to occupy the whole of Ukraine and then , emboldened by this march onto Warsaw.
Putin was clearly wanting a negotiated settlement to ensure Russian security(Ukrainian neutrality, no NATO membership and a halt to the attacks in the Donbass).
Unfortunately the US plan was to undermine Russia and there was no way the proxy war they had been planning for years was going to be foiled by pesky negotiations.
Some might think Putin was played, but he really only had two choices. And none of them were good.

The whole neocon plan from 2014 was to weaken Russia, and to get rid of Putin, get in a western puppet similar to Yeltsin, who would sit back as the west and their tame oligarch continued their carving up of Russian assets.

[Squire Haggard]

But all the way until September 2022 Russia was willing to hand back all four occupied oblasts back to Ukraine.

Can you link to this?  If this is correct then what was Russia demanding in return?

[Jerboa]

In a remarkable piece of consistency I see the government has denied entry to left-wingers Hasan Piker and Cenk Uyger so at least they’re silencing debate on the left too   

I don’t support this on either side of the spectrum.

I totally disagree with the government banning these two, free speech should be protected, even though I'm sure these pair were cheering when the right wing speakers of the UTK rally were banned the other week.

[Squire Haggard]

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Excellent. 

[Squire Haggard]

The whole neocon plan from 2014 was to weaken Russia, and to get rid of Putin, get in a western puppet similar to Yeltsin, who would sit back as the west and their tame oligarch continued their carving up of Russian assets.

How were they going to manage to ''get in a western puppet similar to Yeltsin''?

[Jerboa]

Can you link to this?

Ever since 2022 discussions have noted Russia was open about returning territory they had taken since Feb 2022, they didn't legally annex them until after the referendums that autumn.
The Istanbul peace agreement that was initialled by Russia and Davyd Arakhamia on behalf of Ukraine, Crimea would remain Russian but Moscow would be open to talks with Kiev, the two Donbass republics would be allowed to choose their future, either independent states, join Russia at some point or rejoin Ukraine once they were guaranteed safety and that the Donbass would have some limited autonomy and be free to use the Russian language without persecution.   

Ukraine agreed to neutrality and not to join Nato, reduce their military to around 85,000. With that they would receive security guarantees, and Russia was happy to help Ukraine in the bid to join the EU.

Russia specialist Anatol Lieven has commented recently: ‘it should be remembered that while the Russian terms of March 2022 would... have been a bitter pill for Ukraine to swallow at the time, their acceptance would have saved Ukraine much territory that it now seems certain permanently to lose, much damage that may never be restored, and many human beings who can never be brought back to life.’

[Jerboa]

How were they going to manage to ''get in a western puppet similar to Yeltsin''?

You remember the MI6 asset Alexei Navalny? It would be pretty easy for the anti Putin oligarchs to use their money and power once Putin and his circle were removed from power.

[scutty brown]

You remember the MI6 asset Alexei Navalny? It would be pretty easy for the anti Putin oligarchs to use their money and power once Putin and his circle were removed from power.

You mean the guy arrested on trumped up charges, imprisoned through a sham trial, then poisoned and murdered while in jail.
Describing him as you have just shows what an immoral disgusting noxious liar you are.

[RandomGuy99]

Trump is confused again

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[Jerboa]

You mean the guy arrested on trumped up charges, imprisoned through a sham trial, then poisoned and murdered while in jail.
Describing him as you have just shows what an immoral disgusting noxious liar you are.

Those who impugn poor morals on others I find are usually the gentlemen that are the one's lacking in morality. 

As for Navalny, he was a asset of MI6, his chief of staff was caught red handed in a Moscow restaurant asking for millions from a MI6 agent. He was a astroturfed political figure in Russia, also he was a actual far right racist, not a pretend one that you would label a nationalist who is proud of their country. But a racist who had a hatred of Central Asians, there are videos online of him at rallies. He was your new hope for Russia? 

[RedKettle]

I don't know how many times I need to say this so you understand, the main objective in 24th Feb 2022 was to get the Kiev government to alter their policy. And this actions actually did, 24hrs after the invasion, Kiev had agreed to meet in Gomel, and Zelensky was starting to speak a little more moderately, when he said Ukraine could be neutral, this is the exact thing Moscow had wanted since the maidan coup of February 2014. Now if the Kiev regime had collapsed during the operation Moscow wouldn't shed any tears. But all the way until September 2022 Russia was willing to hand back all four occupied oblasts back to Ukraine.

I perfectly understand what you are writing, i just do not agree.  In fact I also do not think you understand much about it.  At times your posts are like you have swallowed a dictionary of military and political strategy, you know the words but not how to use them or what they mean.

[Jerboa]

I perfectly understand what you are writing, i just do not agree.  In fact I also do not think you understand much about it.  At times your posts are like you have swallowed a dictionary of military and political strategy, you know the words but not how to use them or what they mean.

Are you always so condescending or is it only on weekdays? 

[scutty brown]

Those who impugn poor morals on others I find are usually the gentlemen that are the one's lacking in morality. 

As for Navalny, he was a asset of MI6, his chief of staff was caught red handed in a Moscow restaurant asking for millions from a MI6 agent. He was a astroturfed political figure in Russia, also he was a actual far right racist, not a pretend one that you would label a nationalist who is proud of their country. But a racist who had a hatred of Central Asians, there are videos online of him at rallies. He was your new hope for Russia? 

So you justify his poisoning and murder?

[Jerboa]

So you justify his poisoning and murder?

Have you any evidence that he was murdered? What would be the motive for killing Navalny in prison? He was not a threat to the Kremlin, and had limited support in the country.

[scutty brown]

Have you any evidence that he was murdered? What would be the motive for killing Navalny in prison? He was not a threat to the Kremlin, and had limited support in the country.

He was killed with Epibatidine
Well documented

Previously he was poisoned with a Novichock compound but survived.
Again well documented.

As for motive, ask Putin to explain, he was behind it

[Jerboa]

He was killed with Epibatidine
Well documented

Previously he was poisoned with a Novichock compound but survived.
Again well documented.

As for motive, ask Putin to explain, he was behind it

Well documented by whom? Western intelligence? Remember when Navalny went to Germany after he claimed he was poisoned? The Russian government requested a sample so they could collaborate into the investigation, German government refused.

[scutty brown]

Well documented by whom? Western intelligence? Remember when Navalny went to Germany after he claimed he was poisoned? The Russian government requested a sample so they could collaborate into the investigation, German government refused.

The cause of both poisonings was independently identified by five different laboratories (including Porton Down).
As for giving a sample to the Russians, you're hardly going to give the accused a chance to substitute or falsify the evidence - something the Russians have prior history of

[Punting2022]

So khan is causing another tube strike. He really needs to go. London is falling under his rule.
Crime up. General cleanliness down. Strikes.


Need a reform mayor and pm urgently

[bigden40]

So khan is causing another tube strike. He really needs to go. London is falling under his rule.
Crime up. General cleanliness down. Strikes.


Need a reform mayor and pm urgently

Khan was vulnerable last time around, nobody really likes him.  And what do the opposition parties do?  Run complete nobodies against him. Khan had a net negative favourability but no one knew who Susan Hall or any of the other candidates were at all. 

[puntingking]

So khan is causing another tube strike. He really needs to go. London is falling under his rule.
Crime up. General cleanliness down. Strikes.


Need a reform mayor and pm urgently

I don't like any of the political parties these days, if we took the best bits from each political party then that would be something worth voting for but none of the political parties are great to be honest. 

Reform is just as bad as all the other parties. 


I don't like Khan but he is not responsible for the tube strikers, it is the workers who are greedy 

The workers don't know that if the government wants to they can replace the majority of them with AI and self-driving trains.

[puntingking]

How comes there are only tube strikes in the summer when the weather is always prediected to be nicer? They just want a few extra days off. If they really care and are striking for legitimate reasons then why not stand outside the tube stations with platcards as a protest during the strikes, the reason they won't is because they want extra days off.

When the nurses went on strikes, a lot of them standed outside hospitals with platcards explaining their reasons for the strike. 



edit - they also strike just before or during the easter and Christmas period. There never seems to be strikes in january or october 

[puntingking]

Henry Nowak police footage is disturbing. This makes me so angry   

[Iamforreal]

So khan is causing another tube strike. He really needs to go. London is falling under his rule.
Crime up. General cleanliness down. Strikes.


Need a reform mayor and pm urgently

Farage will fix all our problems 

[Adoniron]

So khan is causing another tube strike. He really needs to go. London is falling under his rule.
Crime up. General cleanliness down. Strikes.


Need a reform mayor and pm urgently

If only those pesky Londoners didn't keep re-electing him.

[Massagemanmr]

So khan is causing another tube strike. He really needs to go. London is falling under his rule.
Crime up. General cleanliness down. Strikes.


Need a reform mayor and pm urgently

Tube strikes have been going on for deacdes......please don't be simple and blame Khan as if this is something ONLY on his watch.....

[Massagemanmr]

How comes there are only tube strikes in the summer when the weather is always prediected to be nicer? They just want a few extra days off. If they really care and are striking for legitimate reasons then why not stand outside the tube stations with platcards as a protest during the strikes, the reason they won't is because they want extra days off.

When the nurses went on strikes, a lot of them standed outside hospitals with platcards explaining their reasons for the strike. 



edit - they also strike just before or during the easter and Christmas period. There never seems to be strikes in january or october 

can you find out and let us know?

[RedKettle]

Henry Nowak police footage is disturbing. This makes me so angry   

Yes it was a terrible mistake. Immediately acknowledged as such and did not impact on the tragedy in that unfortunately he would have died whatever they did. Police apologised and it is being investigated. The criminal has been sent to jail. People are trying to make political points out of this that are not there. Police got it wrong and that was terrible.

[Jerboa]

Henry Nowak police footage is disturbing. This makes me so angry   

DEI equals DIE. we have a culture of believing ethnic minorities immediately over whites because a allegation of racism was claimed, looking at the footage the constables had a duty of care to check Henry for injuries after he claimed he'd been stabbed, they hardly even bothered. And the deputy chief constable the other day, "well we're sorry, yeah but Henry would have died anyway" Where is Two Tier? he and the ginger minger got on their knee for the Minnesota criminals death in 2020, not a word from him after the guilty verdict, do we think that would be the case if a white boy had stabbed a brown boy to death? The Sikh community are on the whole honourable, however there are always the bad apple, the brother of the murderer called the police claiming they had been racially abused, and the mother took and hid the knife.

[finn5555]

Yes it was a terrible mistake. Immediately acknowledged as such and did not impact on the tragedy in that unfortunately he would have died whatever they did. Police apologised and it is being investigated. The criminal has been sent to jail. People are trying to make political points out of this that are not there. Police got it wrong and that was terrible.

Terribly sad sequence of events leading to his death.

Worryingly Digwa was able to carry a knife in public because there is an exemption for those who observe the Sikh faith to carry ceremonial daggers.

Maybe that needs to be reviewed due to the volume of knife crime we see

[Jerboa]

Terribly sad sequence of events leading to his death.

Worryingly Digwa was able to carry a knife in public because there is an exemption for those who observe the Sikh faith to carry ceremonial daggers.

Maybe that needs to be reviewed due to the volume of knife crime we see

I thought most kirpins were soft pliable metal worn in clothing that aren't usually sharp or deadly.

[RedKettle]

Terribly sad sequence of events leading to his death.

Worryingly Digwa was able to carry a knife in public because there is an exemption for those who observe the Sikh faith to carry ceremonial daggers.

Maybe that needs to be reviewed due to the volume of knife crime we see

He had two, not the usual 1. The second one was larger than normal.