From the former chief medical officer of the UK who was interviewed by the BBC when the first flight arrived back from the China and the people onboard were being driven to the Wirral for quarantining.
Or see External Link/Members Only
The tables in there mention figures of 28,000 for all deaths with most being in the elderly age group as you would expect.
Thanks for that. The figure of 28,000 is for a spike year. The average in the tables lies somewhere between 15 to 20k. However that aside you are falling into the trap of misinterpreting data ... but you are not alone
External Link/Members OnlyInterestingly if you look at the corresponding report produced for winter 2017/18 the summary figures for previous years don’t match those in the table for 2018/19 linked to above?
External Link/Members OnlyThe reality is nobody knows a true number of deaths where flu is a contributory factor. The problem arises because of interpretation of the ‘excess winter deaths’ data. Needless to say there is an algorithm involved
There are many contributing factors to the excess winter death figures including extreme cold itself as well as general respiratory illness including a range of viruses. More people die in winter full stop and the winter figure varies year on year (often with spikes). Those who end up in ICU/HDU in hospitals are subject to statutory recording procedures and if influenza (which will have been confirmed with a blood test) is considered a causative factor in their death, it will be recorded. This number is generally low usually much less than 1000 per year.
The problem arises in those deaths which occur ‘in the community’ and the accuracy of the involvement of ‘flu’. GPs will record the number of cases of ILIs (Influenza like illness) they encounter which then feeds into the weekly flu reports
A GP of an old dear who dies in a nursing home (and there are a great many such old folk) may enter pneumonia on the death certificate following an upper respiratory tract infection or an ILI, but influenza should only be declared in the presence of a positive blood test. It is highly possible therefore that too many of the excess deaths are attributed to Influenza involvement as in the link above? Often it is just a bad cold which debilitates an already debilitated patient.
I believe it has suited western governments in particular, to compare the coronavirus to seasonal flu and to exaggerate the number of deaths associated with the latter in order to alleviate panic on the basis that "
this happens every year and we don't notice it". However it is looking as if this virus is not only more readily transmissible than seasonal flu (which is itself highly contagious), but is considerably more deadly. Seasonal flu has a mortality rate of around 0.1%. CV is at least 2% with a possibility of climbing much higher in my opinion even without any further mutations. Unlike seasonal flu which is pretty nasty for most but critical for a few. CV is appears is mild for a great many but critical for much higher numbers ... many of whom succumb.
It is unfortunately still early days in investigating this strain, but as each day passes I am less optimistic about the progression of this virus and I think many of us may be mourning the unexpected deaths of loved ones in months to come? Especially if the loved one is an over 65 male like myself. I hope I am wrong?
