Author Topic: Finance & Investments  (Read 80535 times)

Offline Norwichwood

Why is it dangerous? They are all making a profit and have strong cashflows. As long as you can repay your debt there isn't a problem. None have a P/E of above 30. That's not high share prices for a growing profitable tech company. Just buy a fund - if your don't like the Nasdaq 100 just buy the S&P 500 or some other fund that you fancy. I would avoid UK.

Offline Rick2468

The BBC news showed a graphic about the level of borrowing of Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and NVIDIA and it is starting to rival the amount owed by a country and Nvidia is acting as a bank to some of these companies lending them money which they then use to buy Nvidia products. That's got to be dangerous.

I've held my stocks but not invested any additional money over the past 12 months aside from my bonus. I'm sitting on about £50K of cash waiting for a crash and so far I've lost out on roughly £10K in returns, although on the plus side my invested assets have been doing really well.

The amount of debt in the tech companies leads me to think there will be a crash, but I do believe that sentiment drives the market and investors will continue to big up the market so everyone keeps the money flowing in. There is precedent for this, the 2008 crash was delayed for a while after the magnitude of the bad debt was common knowledge as investors / credit agencies brushed it off as something that would have insignificant impact on the banks.

Some people think there will be government bail-outs if some of the big companies fail as they will be considered too vital to the economy (and likely also very important to the few individuals who are making the decisions...). Whilst the debts are the size of some countries they could still be swallowed by the US government, and the current government has a staggeringly care free attitude to loading more to the national debt.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2026, 06:39:08 pm by Rick2468 »

Online RandomGuy99

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After a nearly 1,000% surge, the AI debt orgy can’t last forever, while hidden borrowing has exploded to $1.65 trillion
« Last Edit: September 04, 2026, 07:42:50 pm by RandomGuy99 »

Offline Malvolio

So if you're waiting for a crash, how do you intend to judge when the market has bottomed out?

I'm going back to the two types of investors - those who can't time the market and those who haven't realised they can't time the market.  There's also the example of the world's most famous investor, who has used the crafty tactic of staying invested since 1956.

Offline Blackpool Rock

So if you're waiting for a crash, how do you intend to judge when the market has bottomed out?

I'm going back to the two types of investors - those who can't time the market and those who haven't realised they can't time the market.  There's also the example of the world's most famous investor, who has used the crafty tactic of staying invested since 1956.
Ah yes the Sage of Omaha  :thumbsup:

I've quoted about timing the market numerous times and it will always remain a constant along with the other point that I always read about when there's market turbulence or a fall happening -
It's not just about making 1 decision to sell out of a stock / fund / market as you then have to make a 2nd decision as to when to buy back in or alternatively what else to buy into and what makes you think that any alternative will do any better  :unknown:

If you take some events like Covid and the start of the war in Ukraine the whole market took a hit and it didn't really matter what the market sector was so it's about sentiment and people just start selling out of everything without giving it too much thought so good stocks get dragged lower along with the bad for no good reason.
Taking Covid as an example after the drop I did sell out of a couple of duffers and switched the proceeds into Tech which had also been hit, thankfully the Tech then rebounded strongly as people clamoured to buy laptops etc and work from home whereas anything in hospitality etc remained low

The other constant is that any investor should review their portfolio regularly and rebalance it so that it remains diversified and they aren't wiped out by a crash in any 1 individual sector.  :drinks:

Online RandomGuy99

Which is worth having more, time in retirement or more money in retirement?

There's perhaps no point having more money in retirement if your health isn't great and you can't enjoy it.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2026, 04:33:41 pm by RandomGuy99 »

Offline simon07

Which is worth having more, time in retirement or more money in retirement?

There's perhaps no point having more money in retirement if your health isn't great and you can't enjoy it.

If you have places to see and things to do, do it whenever you can. I have found that retirement is a time when i have the money and not as much stamina to do things. I am also caught in the grandchildren and carer to wife trap too.

I try and find time for punting when the right conditions are met.

Offline Norwichwood

297 reviews so far - we salute your service! What age are you roughly?

I'm coming up to 55 this year - taken a few career breaks over time - ready for another one - but currently place pays v well - just a bit of dodgy place which can go bang and I don't want to be there when it does.
Need a side hustle.

At 34 I had nothing and no job - but since then have changed - slowly increasing the savings, investments and returns. No property or kids or wife. I hate flying with a passion. But maybe time for some fun abroad. Using the 4% rule I have enough to retire on. Plus mostly in Tech which has given much better returns over the last 30 years. And it only seems to be getting better returns wise.

Online RandomGuy99

297 reviews so far - we salute your service! What age are you roughly?

I'm coming up to 55 this year - taken a few career breaks over time - ready for another one - but currently place pays v well - just a bit of dodgy place which can go bang and I don't want to be there when it does.
Need a side hustle.

At 34 I had nothing and no job - but since then have changed - slowly increasing the savings, investments and returns. No property or kids or wife. I hate flying with a passion. But maybe time for some fun abroad. Using the 4% rule I have enough to retire on. Plus mostly in Tech which has given much better returns over the last 30 years. And it only seems to be getting better returns wise.
Having a lot in tech is risky and it is likely the bubble will burst.

Offline Norwichwood

30 years of good returns and still good p/e ratios factoring in growth. Even if it halved tomorrow I would still be highly up. I'm still buying. The snowball is still growing faster than I can spend it. What do you suggest instead?

Online RandomGuy99

30 years of good returns and still good p/e ratios factoring in growth. Even if it halved tomorrow I would still be highly up. I'm still buying. The snowball is still growing faster than I can spend it. What do you suggest instead?
Diversify your portfolio. Keep some that you don't mind losing in high risk. Keep some in lower risk that should just safely grow over time. Invest in stocks in different sectors as often one will take a dive while another will go up, so they balance out over time. Keep some in low risk like cash or government bonda

Offline Norwichwood

I'm 75% tech and 25% UK small caps (down from 40% and reducing) - I know which has made me the money over the last 20 years! I own a range of tech stocks - none above 6% of my whole portfolio (Nvidia which has done 'ok').

My next step is to set up a company (due to changes in salary sacrifice in April 29) - then build a SIPP based on more targeted stocks - but likely to be tech. I'm still young enough to take the risk. The war in Ukraine and Trump tariffs have caused some big shocks downward but always bounces back so far. Also have a salary which pays 2x my living costs with salary sacrifice to the max. So going to keep betting on tech until can find something better.

Offline Norwichwood

On a side note - what do people think of the Motley Fool? Anyone follow the naked investor? Once I have a SIPP to target some stocks - looking for someone to follow.

Offline simon07

Cheers matey. I will 70 soon and i keep punt-ready by staying fit with swimming sauna and sex. I still do weights though find i cannot do the same heavy weights i did when i had a personal trainer 7 years ago. Sometimes its the hunting for the right WG that keeps the mental interest up, though poor prospects does depress me a bit.

Having a great bank manager who is able and willing to be flexible helps a lot. He helped me transfer money from my business building equity to help me pay off my home mortgage 25 years ago, along with cash savings i had. I guess managers are more cautious now?

Then i focused on overpaying my business mortgage. Not having to pay for home freed me up to invest in various companies who moved my ISA on as they merged or were absorbed like Clydesdale, Duetch Bank, Tilney etc. I could not always save the full ISA amount and i did my best, mindful of the need to live, travel, scuba dive etc. I wish i could speak to my younger self at 25 years age and impart wisdom. Still it’s sufficient for me with what i have. All this will be useful to younger members of UKP i guess  :drinks:

Offline Norwichwood

"I wish i could speak to my younger self at 25 years age and impart wisdom."

Yep! I would say - find a nice girl and get laid, start a business like Craig's list, travel & have fun. I worked for a US bank in my late 20's get burnt out and bust, then when 34 started to get my sh*t kinda together and started the snowball.

Now need to stop drinking (2 bottles of wine a day) get fitter as my body is starting to feel older - find a side hustle (again had 1 in the past almost 20 years ago which started me off saving and building the snowball)

And if I could get over my fear of flying - would spend a few years in Asia :-)

Offline Blackpool Rock

I'm 75% tech and 25% UK small caps (down from 40% and reducing) - I know which has made me the money over the last 20 years! I own a range of tech stocks - none above 6% of my whole portfolio (Nvidia which has done 'ok').

My next step is to set up a company (due to changes in salary sacrifice in April 29) - then build a SIPP based on more targeted stocks - but likely to be tech. I'm still young enough to take the risk. The war in Ukraine and Trump tariffs have caused some big shocks downward but always bounces back so far. Also have a salary which pays 2x my living costs with salary sacrifice to the max. So going to keep betting on tech until can find something better.
I'm another fan of Global Tech as my best 4 funds are all Tech and it's served me very well on average holding it through the downs until it rebounded very strongly, my normal holding is between 25 and 33% of my portfolio, when it hits about 33% I look at switching some into other funds to diversify.

However just a word of warning that over the last cycle when Tech was going down it was quoted that it was largely down to higher interest rates meaning that the cost of borrowing was higher and these stocks are borrowing and spending money hand over fist.
We have seen that inflation has been stubbornly higher than major central banks targets and in the current climate interest rates are on the up which may again at least put the brakes on Tech valuations


IMO to have 75% of a portfolio in any 1 market sector is far too high and you need to diversify.
In my early years of investing in the early 2010's I read a few articles which said the time may be right for UK smaller companies for various reasons, I duly invested in these and indeed they did really well for a few years returning over a few years returns comparable to what I currently have for Tech

I was a bit wet behind the ears in terms of investing back then and assumed it would continue forever and i'm sure things would have continued to do OK but then along came 2016 and Brexit.
My UK smaller companies all started to tank but I was sure they'd bounce back and couldn't bear the thought of selling out after they'd dropped, I stuck with them but when I looked a few years down the line and they'd basically flat lined for 3-5 years I bit the bullet and switched the majority of them out into other things including Tech  but pretty much all of what I switched into did so much better

The sums were bad at the time but looking back it wasn't too much compared to my current position however it did teach me the lesson about diversifying and reviewing my portfolio regularly then switching things if something isn't doing well or i'm holding too much

Online RandomGuy99

Government borrowing is high at the moment so bonds must be doing well.

Offline Norwichwood

Interesting. If only 32% in Tech - what are the next categories after this? If tech slows. What might be the growth areas instead. (if Tech slows so might everything else). I would have gone S&P 500 but not so much now. UK is a no. China is a no. Property is out (in the UK). ATM I'm also limited as 2/3rd of my funds are in a pension fund - which only has 7 options - but going for the Sharia (Tech focused) has been great for me. As has an ISA with Henderson tech fund (more than 5x growth). China's and the worlds investment in tech helps to push US tech. 


Offline Blackpool Rock

Interesting. If only 32% in Tech - what are the next categories after this? If tech slows. What might be the growth areas instead. (if Tech slows so might everything else). I would have gone S&P 500 but not so much now. UK is a no. China is a no. Property is out (in the UK). ATM I'm also limited as 2/3rd of my funds are in a pension fund - which only has 7 options - but going for the Sharia (Tech focused) has been great for me. As has an ISA with Henderson tech fund (more than 5x growth). China's and the worlds investment in tech helps to push US tech.
Just looked at my portfolio report and bearing in mind with funds you do get overlaps between funds in what their invested in but -
Tech 37%
Industrials 14%
Finance 14%
Consumer cyclical (deceptively vague  :unknown:) 8%
Communication services (i'd probably also call that Tech related though) 6%
Basic materials 5%
Healthcare 5%
Energy 4%
Then others at less %

It's always a crystal ball job deciding what the invest in though and you can never quite be sure but then again that's a good reason to put the money into a few things then see what does well / bad then switch out of the poor performers into the good.
My switches this year have been more into Global industrials and a UK fund which is heavy in banking, everything i'm reading also suggests that UK stocks are cheap in comparison to other regions as it's been unloved since Brexit

As I say crystal ball as i've previously invested in funds in India and Japan after reading they were on the up or about to rise however they never did anything so I avoid them like the plague now, never been in China so perhaps missed out, another theoretical boom should be green energy but I invested in one and sold out a year or so later with a 20% loss  :dash:

Offline Watts.E.Dunn

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"I wish i could speak to my younger self at 25 years age and impart wisdom."

Yep! I would say - find a nice girl and get laid, start a business like Craig's list, travel & have fun. I worked for a US bank in my late 20's get burnt out and bust, then when 34 started to get my sh*t kinda together and started the snowball.

Now need to stop drinking (2 bottles of wine a day) get fitter as my body is starting to feel older - find a side hustle (again had 1 in the past almost 20 years ago which started me off saving and building the snowball)

And if I could get over my fear of flying - would spend a few years in Asia :-)



Old mate of mine was very fearful of flying so i said unto him mate go and have a test trial flight at your local flying club.

Guess what?, he has for some time has held a private pilots licence!

Have a look at this site and you can see the number of aircraft over the UK Europe and most anywhere else.

Airlines such as Ryanair and Quesyjet are the b the best of my knowledge never had a fatality in all the years they have been operating!

Any aircraft of interest put your mouse on it and all the details are over on the left..

Its just amazing how incredibility safe commercial flying is!

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Offline Munter84

UK housebuilders (finally) jumping on news of a renewed Help to Buy offering from Burnham.

Bellway up 10.35%
Taylor Wimpey up 11.51%
Barratt up 11.72%
Persimmon up 15.85%

The sector is still looking sad viewed historically, but some good news for those of us who have been patiently holding.

Offline PilotMan

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UK housebuilders (finally) jumping on news of a renewed Help to Buy offering from Burnham.

Bellway up 10.35%
Taylor Wimpey up 11.51%
Barratt up 11.72%
Persimmon up 15.85%

The sector is still looking sad viewed historically, but some good news for those of us who have been patiently holding.

I don't follow any of them, but I reckon margins will have decreased when they announce their results.

Offline PepeMAGA

Micron Q4 update after the market closes tomorrow, expect a surge on Thursday if it's above expectations