Interesting conundrum - WWYD?

[JontyR]

So this chap in America has found an unopened packet of baseball cards from 1952.

The packet, unopened, is estimated to be worth about $15,000.

But if the packet contained a Willy Mays or Micky Mantle card it then that card could be worth over $1million.

But if you open it, the packets value is slashed.

[FiveKnuckles]

Go to the papers to create some hype and have Bieber types celebs and sports personalities  bid to open the pack live  on a streaming platform.  Perhaps get 500k+ 

[jackdaw]

So this chap in America has found an unopened packet of baseball cards from 1952.

The packet, unopened, is estimated to be worth about $15,000.

But if the packet contained a Willy Mays or Micky Mantle card it then that card could be worth over $1million.

But if you open it, the packets value is slashed.

It’s partly a mathematical problem, which we need some more data to solve…namely the odds of a Willy Mays or Micky Mantle card being in there, and value if packet is opened and neither of those cards are in there.

And it’s partly about the attitude to risk and the personal circumstances of the cards owner.

I assume odds of one of the super valuable cards being in there is really low, and if that’s true, I’d take the 15000.

[RandomGuy99]

So this chap in America has found an unopened packet of baseball cards from 1952.

The packet, unopened, is estimated to be worth about $15,000.

But if the packet contained a Willy Mays or Micky Mantle card it then that card could be worth over $1million.

But if you open it, the packets value is slashed.

Get some one to use an x ray machine or CT scanner on it like they do with oil paintings, so you can see which cards are in it.

[JontyR]

It’s partly a mathematical problem, which we need some more data to solve…namely the odds of a Willy Mays or Micky Mantle card being in there, and value if packet is opened and neither of those cards are in there.

And it’s partly about the attitude to risk and the personal circumstances of the cards owner.

I assume odds of one of the super valuable cards being in there is really low, and if that’s true, I’d take the 15000.

I'm guessing someone has already "done the math" as they say in the states. And the probability is how the price is fixed as it is.

[badsin]

Create as much interest as possible, then auction , let somebody else take the risk. You're still up, you started with zero 

[chrishornx]

there are clearly 4 possible values for the item and the same conundrum would apply to any purchaser of the item if unopened.

take the $15,000

[Thephoenix]

there are clearly 4 possible values for the item and the same conundrum would apply to any purchaser of the item if unopened.

take the $15,000

Yes I agree.

What's the old saying?

A bird in the hand gathers no moss or something.

[chrishornx]

Yes I agree.

What's the old saying?

A bird in the hand gathers no moss or something.

we would be opting for the second lowest of the 4 values but the only one guaranteed

take the money and run

[Bertiebeenthere]

Better a short priced winner than a long priced loser.

[Dipper]

Go to the papers to create some hype and have Bieber types celebs and sports personalities  bid to open the pack live  on a streaming platform.  Perhaps get 500k+ 

That’s a great shout if the interest is there. 

[Thephoenix]

As me ol' Uncle Albert used to say:

Never expect to win, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.

[puntingking]

So this chap in America has found an unopened packet of baseball cards from 1952.

The packet, unopened, is estimated to be worth about $15,000.

But if the packet contained a Willy Mays or Micky Mantle card it then that card could be worth over $1million.

But if you open it, the packets value is slashed.

seems to me people got more money than sense.
who ever pays that sort of money for some cards needs a slap 

[akauya]

So this chap in America has found an unopened packet of baseball cards from 1952.

The packet, unopened, is estimated to be worth about $15,000.

But if the packet contained a Willy Mays or Micky Mantle card it then that card could be worth over $1million.

But if you open it, the packets value is slashed.

I would create a lot of publicity for it - especially in academic circles - and sell it as the proverbial Schrodinger's cat paradox. It would probably reach more than $1million that way.

[mr.bluesky]

I wonder if unopened Panini football stickers will be worth anything in 50 years time 

[Stevelondon]

Depends entirely on whether $15,000 is a lot of money to someone…….. or not.

Personally I’d go with anything that would generate more financial gain firstly. As others have said. Perhaps a televised opening of the cards.

If that’s not feasible, then I’d take the gamble.
Losing $15,000 or thereabouts is not gonna kill me.

[Bigwilts]

I wonder if unopened Panini football stickers will be worth anything in 50 years time 

Sealed 80s panini sticker packs have sold on eBay in the region of £5 to £15
A World Cup Mexico 86 set for £26

Supply & demand

[puntingking]

Sealed 80s panini sticker packs have sold on eBay in the region of £5 to £15
A World Cup Mexico 86 set for £26

Supply & demand

the days when burglars and thieves used to steal cars, wallets and keys are over. 

now in the near future they will soon be coming after cards. 

[chrishornx]

Depends entirely on whether $15,000 is a lot of money to someone…….. or not.

Personally I’d go with anything that would generate more financial gain firstly. As others have said. Perhaps a televised opening of the cards.

If that’s not feasible, then I’d take the gamble.
Losing $15,000 or thereabouts is not gonna kill me.

you add a new dimension now as $15k is a lot too many but good for you if wouldn't kill you, but it may be life changing the guy who found it . A flippant billionaire could speculate $15k to potentially make $3-4m but if that is the case then maybe he would pay $30k, or more.

 Maybe just auction it with a $15k reserve

[JontyR]

I wonder if unopened Panini football stickers will be worth anything in 50 years time 

I think there is something about this particular year that spikes the interest. The players with the highest collectible status's first appearance or something akin to that.

[GreyDave]

Get some one to use an x ray machine or CT scanner on it like they do with oil paintings, so you can see which cards are in it.

Spot on Sir thats what i and I expect loads of others was thinking,
Infra red thingy too like that Fake or fourtune show on paintings then you know ... Maths is bollocks as the xray might find it got fresh but worthless cards in

[GreyDave]

  Got me thinking though How about a Top Trumps game based around the WGs weve seen and their services provided ?

I reckon its an idea should I go on Dragons Den for funding to print and extra reserch?

Seem to remember Viz doing a Roger Melley cartoon Bargin Cunt 

[chrishornx]

Spot on Sir thats what i and I expect loads of others was thinking,
Infra red thingy too like that Fake or fourtune show on paintings then you know ... Maths is bollocks as the xray might find it got fresh but worthless cards in

not sure what you mean by 'fresh' cards but x-raying 4 or 5 card laid on top of each other may be very difficult to achieve with certainty

the highest possible value of the item, perhaps $3m or more, can never, ever be realistically achieved but if opened and there  is  a Mays or Mantle card then the $1m value would be there but I doubt anybody with Xray or infra red facilities would be able to guarantee without doubt that the cards were there

i still say take the £15k or put it up for auction with a $15k reserve and see what idiots pay more . Don't forget that even if the right card is in the packet it could still be damaged and worthless

[jackdaw]

not sure what you mean by 'fresh' cards but x-raying 4 or 5 card laid on top of each other may be very difficult to achieve with certainty

the highest possible value of the item, perhaps $3m or more, can never, ever be realistically achieved but if opened and there  is  a Mays or Mantle card then the $1m value would be there but I doubt anybody with Xray or infra red facilities would be able to guarantee without doubt that the cards were there

i still say take the £15k or put it up for auction with a $15k reserve and see what idiots pay more . Don't forget that even if the right card is in the packet it could still be damaged and worthless

There’s 6 cards in the pack, and I agree with you there’s not a cat in hells chance of an x-ray machine revealing what picture and text is on each card.

I’ve just looked at a couple of u tube videos, one featured the auction of an identical seal pack of cards. It sold at a total cost of 14,400 dollars, but 2,400 of that went to the auctioneer as fees, so seller cleared just 12,000 dollars. (Still good money, of course, for a lucky find.)

[chrishornx]

$12,000 or maybe $4m  - big choice to make 

[Blackpool Rock]

Depends entirely on whether $15,000 is a lot of money to someone…….. or not.

Personally I’d go with anything that would generate more financial gain firstly. As others have said. Perhaps a televised opening of the cards.

If that’s not feasible, then I’d take the gamble.
Losing $15,000 or thereabouts is not gonna kill me.

Yeah hype the story up get some comments / quotes on National TV from some past and existing stars about how they are interested and would love to know which cards are in the packet and may be interested in buying it themselves.

As already said this is a numbers game but if the average value is $15K then that's not life changing and lets face it it's highly unlikely that a $1M card is in the pack

Once you have publicity and the story about the seller not knowing whether to open the pack or sell it etc then keep it going by announcing that there's going to be a raffle to win it.
Sell tickets for say $10 each and you'd only need to sell 100K to make the same money as if the pack contained one of the prize cards 

[chrishornx]

Yeah hype the story up get some comments / quotes on National TV from some past and existing stars about how they are interested and would love to know which cards are in the packet and may be interested in buying it themselves.

As already said this is a numbers game but if the average value is $15K then that's not life changing and lets face it it's highly unlikely that a $1M card is in the pack

Once you have publicity and the story about the seller not knowing whether to open the pack or sell it etc then keep it going by announcing that there's going to be a raffle to win it.
Sell tickets for say $10 each and you'd only need to sell 100K to make the same money as if the pack contained one of the prize cards 

and then what BR?

It doesn't really solve the conundrum posed it just shoves it down the road to the raffle winner. What do they do with their win? the card could still be worth virtually nothing to $4m so what do they do

yes the current owner would make more money but if you are the winners it is still the same old conundrum

[jackdaw]

“All you need to do is sell 100,000 raffle tickets…”

Call me pessimistic but I think that would be difficult in reality.

[chrishornx]

“All you need to do is sell 100,000 raffle tickets…”

Call me pessimistic but I think that would be difficult in reality.

because the conundrum will still exist

[jackdaw]

because the conundrum will still exist

Yes

A bit of a tangent coming up…but related to a theoretical idea proposed earlier in the thread…if it was possible to scan the sealed package without opening, and discover it’s contents, wouldn’t there be a legal and ethical duty on part of the seller to disclose the results of the scan to a prospect buyer?

And when it was disclosed that it was certain that no really rare cards were included the sales value would drop enormously from 15,000.

[Blackpool Rock]

and then what BR?

It doesn't really solve the conundrum posed it just shoves it down the road to the raffle winner. What do they do with their win? the card could still be worth virtually nothing to $4m so what do they do

yes the current owner would make more money but if you are the winners it is still the same old conundrum

The conundrum was what would I do, as to the raffle winner that's their conundrum not mine as i've already banked the cash 

[Blackpool Rock]

“All you need to do is sell 100,000 raffle tickets…”

Call me pessimistic but I think that would be difficult in reality.

You have to be joking IMO they'd sell loads of tickets, just look at how many lottery tickets they sell in the US, in any case you'd only have to sell 1500 @ $10 each to generate the $15K that the cards are apparently worth

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[chrishornx]

You have to be joking IMO they'd sell loads of tickets, just look at how many lottery tickets they sell in the US, in any case you'd only have to sell 1500 @ $10 each to generate the $15K that the cards are apparently worth

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And when the draw is completed the conundrum question starts all over  again - a possible $4m or possibly nowt. 

[Malvolio]

I think there is something about this particular year that spikes the interest. The players with the highest collectible status's first appearance or something akin to that.

This market already exists.  The latest When Saturday Comes has an article on trading cards, and the record sale was $336,000 for a card of Lionel Messi from the 2004-05 season.  Poor old Ronaldo only went for $243,000 - bet he's pissed off about that.

It was bought by a collectibles company who must anticipate they can sell it on for more cash in a few years.

[Stevelondon]

Surely there would not be a conundrum if the cards were won in a lottery.

Example.
I own the cards. I put them up as a prize in a lottery. Blackpool Rock wins the lottery after buying a $10 ticket.  ( Yes, yes it’s true. He is heavily into gambling as we all know) 😂

He’s only risking $10 if he opens the pack surely.

If the magic card is in there……. Woopee!!!

If not. The deck is devalued of course but he still makes a profit.

Conundrum…….. what conundrum ?

[Blackpool Rock]

Surely there would not be a conundrum if the cards were won in a lottery.

Example.
I own the cards. I put them up as a prize in a lottery. Blackpool Rock wins the lottery after buying a $10 ticket.  ( Yes, yes it’s true. He is heavily into gambling as we all know) 😂

He’s only risking $10 if he opens the pack surely.

If the magic card is in there……. Woopee!!!

If not. The deck is devalued of course but he still makes a profit.

Conundrum…….. what conundrum ?

At last, someone who "Get's it"   

[chrishornx]

At last, someone who "Get's it"   

'getting that' isn't rocket science, but if the winner opens the pack and the 'jewel crowns' are not there then how do they still make  profit?  The conundrum still exists for the new owner  - a potential $4m that can never be achieved right down to $10  -what to do?

Yes BR would only be risking $10 but that is a bigger risk than the current owner so that doesn't really change anything. BR would have the pack of cards  and the conundrum surely still exists. What would you do BR ,open or sell for $15,000 for an item potentially worth $4m ?

[Blackpool Rock]

'getting that' isn't rocket science, but if the winner opens the pack and the 'jewel crowns' are not there then how do they still make  profit?  The conundrum still exists for the new owner  - a potential $4m that can never be achieved right down to $10  -what to do?

Yes BR would only be risking $10 but that is a bigger risk than the current owner so that doesn't really change anything. BR would have the pack of cards  and the conundrum surely still exists. What would you do BR ,open or sell for $15,000 for an item potentially worth $4m ?

I've already said I would raffle it and make more money than it was worth so i'd hit the jackpot anyway, if on the other hand I purchased the cards in the raffle for $10 then i'd open it 

[chrishornx]

I've already said I would raffle it and make more money than it was worth so i'd hit the jackpot anyway, if on the other hand I purchased the cards in the raffle for $10 then i'd open it 

ok fair enough we see things differently but i just don't fully  follow the logic. if you found the card under a cushion you would raffle it to make money but if you had paid $10 dollars for it you would open it. Why not raffle it again? Or sell for $15,000?

[Blackpool Rock]

ok fair enough we see things differently but i just don't fully  follow the logic. if you found the card under a cushion you would raffle it to make money but if you had paid $10 dollars for it you would open it. Why not raffle it again? Or sell for $15,000?

I think the difference is that you would have specifically bought the ticket for $10 with the intention of opening it if you won, you could raffle it again but i'm not sure the interest would be as big the 2nd time round 

Looking back you said that you would take the $15K however that's just an estimated value, 1st you have to actually find a buyer who is willing to part with what is a lot of money for a pack of cards with an unknown true value and then the highest bidder may fall well short of the target $15K
So what if you put it on e-bay etc and the highest bid is only $1K or even $2K 

[chrishornx]

I think the difference is that you would have specifically bought the ticket for $10 with the intention of opening it if you won, you could raffle it again but i'm not sure the interest would be as big the 2nd time round 

Looking back you said that you would take the $15K however that's just an estimated value, 1st you have to actually find a buyer who is willing to part with what is a lot of money for a pack of cards with an unknown true value and then the highest bidder may fall well short of the target $15K
So what if you put it on e-bay etc and the highest bid is only $1K or even $2K 

many imponderables BR in this conundrum but I think it fair  to 'assume' that the pack of cards would fetch around $15,000 Based upon historical values and indeed you also twice refer to that sort of value, and that value forms the basis for your hypothetical raffle

who is to say that $1m is the true value you refer to for one card?

for the sake of the conundrum it has to be assumed that the cards are with $15,000 unopened or $1m if a certain card is in the opened pack. The maximum value possible is of course much higher than$1m but can never be realised but the lowest value of virtually $0 could easily happen.

[petermisc]

We are not talking about buying a packet of cloakroom tickets from WHS and selling them down the local pub here, are we? How much would it cost to run a national or even international lottery to sell the number of tickets being talked about?    This option runs the real risk that you could actually LOSE a substantial amount, if you failed to sell enough tickets.  And that is without considering the legal and tax implications?  Many charities have stopped running their own lotteries for these reasons.

To my mind, your best option would be to go to an auctioneer who specialises in these things, who will have the ear of the buyers and traders interested in them, and hope that would generate a bidding frenzy on the day.

But you also need to remember that they are not worth £15k.  They are only worth what some mug is prepared to pay for them on the day you want to sell them.

[chrishornx]

We are not talking about buying a packet of cloakroom tickets from WHS and selling them down the local pub here, are we? How much would it cost to run a national or even international lottery to sell the number of tickets being talked about?    This option runs the real risk that you could actually LOSE a substantial amount, if you failed to sell enough tickets.  And that is without considering the legal and tax implications?  Many charities have stopped running their own lotteries for these reasons.

To my mind, your best option would be to go to an auctioneer who specialises in these things, who will have the ear of the buyers and traders interested in them, and hope that would generate a bidding frenzy on the day.

But you also need to remember that they are not worth £15k.  They are only worth what some mug is prepared to pay for them on the day you want to sell them.

wise words there would be so many wanting a cut of the pot if a raffle was properly organised with no guarantee of it being a success. The cards could be worth anything from $4m to zero so it is indeed a conundrum

[Munter84]

A bit of a tangent coming up…but related to a theoretical idea proposed earlier in the thread…if it was possible to scan the sealed package without opening, and discover it’s contents, wouldn’t there be a legal and ethical duty on part of the seller to disclose the results of the scan to a prospect buyer?

And when it was disclosed that it was certain that no really rare cards were included the sales value would drop enormously from 15,000.

What you're describing is functionally identical to opening the pack, basically.

I'd still argue "no". The National Lottery knows which scratchcards are losers and they still have the brass balls to charge £2 for them!

[Stevelondon]

I still say there is no conundrum.

It’s got fuck all to do with the value of the cards, opening them or not.

It’s all down to how much money is worth to you.
Is $15000 worth a lot.
No

But to someone else
Yes.

Etc etc etc