The Politics Thread

[DastardlyDick]

I emphasize that the normal travel to Kyiv by members of Congress, members of NATO and the EU, and even Joe Biden is to take a plane to Poland and then hop a train to Kyiv. It is, normally, at least a 20 hour trip. In order for Senator Graham to have arrived at home by 2000 hours local in Washington, DC, he would have had to depart from Kyiv at 0700 hours local Ukraine. I have been unable to find any schedule that shows a train departing Kyiv at that hour.[/color]

You seriously think that a VIP like Graham would travel on a normal, scheduled train along with members of the Polish/Ukranian public? No, he'd most likely be on some special train that doesn't appear in timetables.

[Jerboa]

You seriously think that a VIP like Graham would travel on a normal, scheduled train along with members of the Polish/Ukranian public? No, he'd most likely be on some special train that doesn't appear in timetables.

Yes I absolutely do, obviously you've commented without knowledge, yes there are special trains with enhanced security, when VIP personnel travel to Kiev the Russian MoD are informed, so as not to hit the train.
It is over 400 miles from the border to Kiev, the train takes around 10-11 hours.

[RedKettle]

Look at the timeline, you can't just fly directly from Kiev to Washington, if the Russian attack was Saturday night, how did Graham get back from Kiev, the Millennium Falcon?

If you do some decent research you can easily get to a credible timeline.  Not sure why your Russian friends want to create a mystery here but you are simply building a fantasy.

[Jerboa]

If you do some decent research you can easily get to a credible timeline.  Not sure why your Russian friends want to create a mystery here but you are simply building a fantasy.

I have done the research, it's not credible that Graham was in Kiev Saturday afternoon, and returned home in Washington, to then be reported dead at 20:30 EST.

[Thephoenix]

A couple of interesting recent polls:

1. MRP poll last week has Labour marginally ahead of The Tories with Reform in 3rd place.
2. An IPSO poll gives Binface a lead of 12%.

Looks like The Burnhan factor and the relentless attacks by MSM on Farage is taking effect. 

[mills_and_bhuna]

Never mind Lindsey Graham, it is widely thought that Senator Mitch McConnell is actually dead, despite the supposed proof of life photo circulated after 3 weeks of silence. Looks like a soviet-era style propping up a dead body, in this case to stop an early special election.

I love how you call it Soviet style.
It's American style now.
It happened with Diane Feinstein.
And it's been a recurring theme with the turtle. They even call him Glitch McConnell 

[bigden40]

The death of Senator Lindsey Graham is bringing up some questions, the timeline doesn't make sense, some believe he died in Ukraine.

From Larry Johnson's substack; External Link/Members Only

UPDATE: The Lindsey Graham Timeline Does Not Work… He Died in Kyiv

Let’s follow the timeline. According to the official story: 911 call from his DC residence at 8:30pm ET on July 11 for suspected cardiac arrest. He “died at home.”

This is total bullshit!

So let’s go thru the timeline. Lindsey departed Dulles International Airport at around 0700 local on July 9 — the flight from Dulles to Warsaw is 9 hours. He took the overnight train that departed Warsaw at 18:15 hours local on July 9th and arrived in Kyiv between 09:45–10:45 local on July 10th.

So Lindsey Graham arrives in Kyiv by 11 am Friday morning. He meets with Zelensky and tours a drone factory. Then we are asked to believe that he returns to Washington, DC after spending less than 24 hours on the ground. Again, I call bullshit!!

The earliest train back to Warsaw departs Kyiv-Pasazhyrskyi at 07:40–08:00 on the 11th and arrives Przemyśl Główny in the afternoon (~17:00–18:00). That is at least nine hours. That would make it roughly 1100 hours in Washington, DC. Let’s assume he has an hour to get to the airport and the plane takes off at 1900 hours local from Poland, which is 1200 hours in Washington. The flight going west takes 10 hours… This means the earliest the plane could have landed at Dulles is 2200 hours on the 11th. That is 2 ½ hours after Graham reportedly died at home.

I emphasize that the normal travel to Kyiv by members of Congress, members of NATO and the EU, and even Joe Biden is to take a plane to Poland and then hop a train to Kyiv. It is, normally, at least a 20 hour trip. In order for Senator Graham to have arrived at home by 2000 hours local in Washington, DC, he would have had to depart from Kyiv at 0700 hours local Ukraine. I have been unable to find any schedule that shows a train departing Kyiv at that hour.

VIP Congressional travel does not depend on commercial schedules, Johnson is relying on the rigidity of commercial timetables to create doubt over a travel schedule that is otherwise absolutely doable given someone of his status has access to military or chartered flights, expedited escorts and other direct arrangements that bypass civilian timetables. 

Johnson’s substack is full of these engagement farming, provocative headline-driven, contrarian/sceptical takes. He definitely uses clickbait like this to drive engagement.

An extraordinary claim like this needs evidence beyond simple travel arithmetic that ignores the type of flexibility someone like Graham would have.

[bigden40]

I love how you call it Soviet style.
It's American style now.
It happened with Diane Feinstein.
And it's been a recurring theme with the turtle. They even call him Glitch McConnell 

Soviet-style is appropriate.

There’s a difference between literally dead and being wheeled into the senate for a vote when very visibly ailing (Feinstein, McConnell) and potentially not knowing where they are. Feinstein cast a vote on the Senate floor the day before she died …. even though her daughter had had power of attorney for months because she was in such poor health.

On the other hand, Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko were all rumoured to have been dead for weeks or months before the Soviet Union actually admitted they were dead.  I think this is probably more based on absence from public eye due to poor health than actually being dead though e.g. Chernenko was on full-time dialysis for 6-months before he died, the Politburo likely hid that leading to the death rumours.

[Jonestown]

A couple of interesting recent polls:

1. MRP poll last week has Labour marginally ahead of The Tories with Reform in 3rd place.
2. An IPSO poll gives Binface a lead of 12%.

Looks like The Burnhan factor and the relentless attacks by MSM on Farage is taking effect. 

I reckon people would be more likely to admit they beat their partner and abuse their kids than admit they are going to vote Reform in the current climate
.

[RedKettle]

A couple of interesting recent polls:

1. MRP poll last week has Labour marginally ahead of The Tories with Reform in 3rd place.
2. An IPSO poll gives Binface a lead of 12%.

Looks like The Burnhan factor and the relentless attacks by MSM on Farage is taking effect. 

Relentless attacks by MSM is alttle rich (like Farage  ) given the supportive media he has had for years - hardly anyone has had more appearances on Question Time (38) and very few challenges.  It is only recently when they have finally switched onto his dodgy funding that he is getting the sort of challenge he should have had for years.  But he cannot take it.

[bigden40]

Never mind Lindsey Graham, it is widely thought that Senator Mitch McConnell is actually dead, despite the supposed proof of life photo circulated after 3 weeks of silence. Looks like a soviet-era style propping up a dead body, in this case to stop an early special election.

It’s not “widely thought” about McConnell at all.

McConnell is a very ill and frail old man that really shouldn’t be in the Senate, and he’s retiring at the end of the year. His successor will be elected in November.

That anyone would want to pretend he’s not dead to stop a special election makes no sense as it makes very little difference in practical termsl.  A special election would be held simultaneously with the general election in November anyway, to avoid two elections in a few months, if there were a special election the winner would take their seat immediately instead of having to wait until Jan. 

It’s a solid Republican seat.

[bigden40]

A couple of interesting recent polls:

1. MRP poll last week has Labour marginally ahead of The Tories with Reform in 3rd place.
2. An IPSO poll gives Binface a lead of 12%.

Looks like The Burnhan factor and the relentless attacks by MSM on Farage is taking effect. 

1. Is number of seats.  Percentage of vote has Labour and Reform even on 22% and Tories on 20%.  Reform's drop seems to be mostly votes picked up by Restore.

2. THe IPSOS poll was a UK-wide poll and seems a typically British Boaty McBoatface style response.  Obviously only the people turning up to the polls in Clacton matter on this one.

Any honeymoon period that Burnham has will be over well before Christmas IMO. 

[Squire Haggard]

Russia's own Benny Hill Show.

External Link/Members Only

[Jerboa]

VIP Congressional travel does not depend on commercial schedules, Johnson is relying on the rigidity of commercial timetables to create doubt over a travel schedule that is otherwise absolutely doable given someone of his status has access to military or chartered flights, expedited escorts and other direct arrangements that bypass civilian timetables. 

Johnson’s substack is full of these engagement farming, provocative headline-driven, contrarian/sceptical takes. He definitely uses clickbait like this to drive engagement.

An extraordinary claim like this needs evidence beyond simple travel arithmetic that ignores the type of flexibility someone like Graham would have.

So Graham arrives 11am Friday morning in Kiev, so he was afaik there Saturday afternoon, why such a short trip? there is no swift way to get from Kiev to Poland, unless you risk a helicopter, a train will still take 9-11 hours.

Flying an executive jet from Poland to Washington, D.C. takes between 8.5 to 10 hours This assumes an average flight speed for a commercial airliner of 500 mph, It also adds an extra 30 minutes for take-off and landing. Your exact time may vary depending on wind speeds.

[Squire Haggard]

So Graham arrives 11am Friday morning in Kiev, so he was afaik there Saturday afternoon, why such a short trip? there is no swift way to get from Kiev to Poland, unless you risk a helicopter, a train will still take 9-11 hours.

Flying an executive jet from Poland to Washington, D.C. takes between 8.5 to 10 hours This assumes an average flight speed for a commercial airliner of 500 mph, It also adds an extra 30 minutes for take-off and landing. Your exact time may vary depending on wind speeds.

I've not checked the details, but is it possible that he was there a day or two earlier than was announced. Maybe they do this for security porpoises.

[bigden40]

So Graham arrives 11am Friday morning in Kiev, so he was afaik there Saturday afternoon, why such a short trip? there is no swift way to get from Kiev to Poland, unless you risk a helicopter, a train will still take 9-11 hours.

Flying an executive jet from Poland to Washington, D.C. takes between 8.5 to 10 hours This assumes an average flight speed for a commercial airliner of 500 mph, It also adds an extra 30 minutes for take-off and landing. Your exact time may vary depending on wind speeds.

It's not hard to construct a reasonable timeline for this.

July 9 morning: Departs Dulles (~7–9am ET). Arrives Warsaw/Poland afternoon local.

July 9–10: Short layover/ground transport → Possible charter or expedited onward movement. Arrives Kyiv early–mid morning July 10.

July 10, morning–afternoon: Meetings with Zelenskyy + drone factory visit + public statements in Kyiv (widely reported and photographed).

July 10 afternoon/evening: Departs Kyiv (likely by van/helicopter to Polish border or direct charter flight from a secure airfield near Kyiv). VIP congressional travel often uses Polish airbases or expedited hops.

July 10 late / July 11 early: Arrives Poland → Quick turnaround to transatlantic flight (military/executive jet, ~9–11 hours westbound). Possible departure Poland ~6–10pm local July 10.

July 11 morning–midday: Lands Dulles or nearby D.C.-area airport (e.g., 8am–2pm ET is realistic with a night departure from Europe).

July 11 afternoon–evening: Arrives home on Capitol Hill. Rested minimally or handled briefings.

~8:00–8:30pm ET July 11: Medical emergency (aortic dissection/cardiac arrest) at residence → 911 call. EMS response documented. 

10:23pm ET: Pronounced dead at hospital.

[RedKettle]

It's not hard to construct a reasonable timeline for this.

July 9 morning: Departs Dulles (~7–9am ET). Arrives Warsaw/Poland afternoon local.

July 9–10: Short layover/ground transport → Possible charter or expedited onward movement. Arrives Kyiv early–mid morning July 10.

July 10, morning–afternoon: Meetings with Zelenskyy + drone factory visit + public statements in Kyiv (widely reported and photographed).

July 10 afternoon/evening: Departs Kyiv (likely by van/helicopter to Polish border or direct charter flight from a secure airfield near Kyiv). VIP congressional travel often uses Polish airbases or expedited hops.

July 10 late / July 11 early: Arrives Poland → Quick turnaround to transatlantic flight (military/executive jet, ~9–11 hours westbound). Possible departure Poland ~6–10pm local July 10.

July 11 morning–midday: Lands Dulles or nearby D.C.-area airport (e.g., 8am–2pm ET is realistic with a night departure from Europe).

July 11 afternoon–evening: Arrives home on Capitol Hill. Rested minimally or handled briefings.

~8:00–8:30pm ET July 11: Medical emergency (aortic dissection/cardiac arrest) at residence → 911 call. EMS response documented. 

10:23pm ET: Pronounced dead at hospital.

There are various credible versions and AI can create scenarios if you ask. However our Russian agent prefers to stick with the source that supports his prejudice.  You were kind filling in the blanks, I was waiting to see if he got there.

[Vice Admiral]

On the basis of current polls and other indications, Reform UK will probably be the largest party after the 2029 General Election.  However it is very unlikely they will have an overall majority.

That “unlikelihood” is increased by the following recent events: Reform's disappointing performance in the Makerfield by-election; the rise of Restore Britain; the fact that Burnham’s government may come to be considerably more popular than Starmer’s; and Farage’s recent foolish, shady and unpleasant behaviour.

However as things stand, yes, Reform UK will probably be the largest party.

So what happens then?  Kemi Badenoch has insisted that the Conservatives will not go into a coalition with Reform.  But “never say never” is the oldest mantra in the political book, and more often breached than observed.

However if Badenoch sticks to her position, that leaves only the option of an “anti-Reform” coalition that would almost certainly need to include both Labour and the Conservatives – and it might reasonably be argued that hell would freeze over before that happens.

So, only one thing is certain after the next election: at one end of the scale, a lot of very difficult horse-trading; at the other end, complete chaos.

A couple of interesting recent polls:

1. MRP poll last week has Labour marginally ahead of The Tories with Reform in 3rd place.
2. An IPSO poll gives Binface a lead of 12%.

Thank you, Phoenix, for drawing our attention to this poll.

Here's the link:
External Link/Members Only

I have long taken the view (see my post above) that it is highly unlikely that Reform UK will get an overall majority in 2029 – and that it is far from certain that, even if Reform is the largest party, Farage will be Prime Minister.  Now the MRP poll suggests that Reform will not even be the largest party. 

If you add up the seat projections, the "left-wing" parties have a total of 350 seats.  So Burnham may be able to struggle on at the head of a messy coalition. 

The new poll – combined with other recent developments (again see my post above) – also brings another fresh thought into the mix.

The writing’s on the wall for Farage.  If he's realistic, he knows that he’s a busted flush.  So for how long does he want to go on leading this rag, tag and bobtail army when he's well aware that there’s no longer any chance of power?

Interestingly, the bookies have 2026 as strong “favourite” for the year of the "Nigel Farage Reform UK Leadership Exit Date":
External Link/Members Only

But Count Binface may of course pre-empt any resignation.

[DastardlyDick]

Yes I absolutely do, obviously you've commented without knowledge, yes there are special trains with enhanced security, when VIP personnel travel to Kiev the Russian MoD are informed, so as not to hit the train.
It is over 400 miles from the border to Kiev, the train takes around 10-11 hours.

I've probably got more knowledge than you.
Nobody in their right mind would call up the Russian MOD and say 'we've got this VIP on this train, at this time, please could you not shoot at it' and trust them not to "make a mistake" or have a "rogue element".
Back in the Cold War, the RCT ran a military train between West Germany and West Berlin - it was scheduled and agreed to by treaty, but it still had a contingent of armed troops on board "just in case", because nobody trusted either the (at the time) Soviet or East German forces or Governments.

[bigden40]

Ed Miliband has indicated he would approve drilling in the North Sea to smooth the path to becoming Chancellor.

“These are my principles,” he says, “and if you want to offer me a job, I have others.”

[bigden40]

Lots of chatter that Burnham is seriously looking at a wealth tax on the advice of the economic illiterate Gary Stevenson.

Here’s a good description of why it would be a disaster and why other economies that experimented with it reversed course. 

How a wealth tax of “just 2%” will swallow 44% of your businesses’ cash flow

For its boosters, a 2% annual WT sounds like a mild inconvenience that the super rich can easily afford.

However, in the real world of private enterprise, wealth does not equal cash.  People like Gary Stevenson propose a 2% levy on all wealth over £10m and he’s confirmed that if you reach £10m it will include that first slug of wealth.

But taxing people on a paper valuation of a business rather than its actual cash flow triggers a destructive extraction dynamic that starves companies, kills investment, and ultimately threatens jobs.

Let's look at the brutal maths behind a mid-sized private business in the UK.

📊 Company Value: £10m (Valued at a standard 10x multiple)

Annual EBITDA (Earnings): £1,000,000
 
Annual Wealth Tax Bill (2%): £200,000

So, the owner needs £200k in cash every single year to pay this personal bill. Since their wealth is locked up in the company’s walls, machinery, and inventory, they have to extract it.

🧮 The Extraction Trap

To get £200,000 in clean cash into the owner’s hands via dividends, the business has to fund both corporate and personal taxes:

1. The Dividend Tax:

To take home £200k after the top UK dividend tax rate (39.35%), the company must declare a gross dividend of £329,761.

2. The Corporation Tax:

Because dividends are paid out of post-tax profits, we have to account for 25% Corporation Tax. To leave enough for that dividend, the company must assign £439,681 of its pre-tax earnings.

🚨 The Devastating Reality

To pay a 2% wealth tax on a £10m company, the business must hollow out 44% of its entire annual pre-tax earnings (£439,681 out of £1,000,000).

What’s worse is that the effective  tax rate on extraction in this scenario is c. 54.5%. This is light years away from the “just 2%” promised.

When nearly half of a profitable company's earnings leave the business ecosystem just to pay a personal asset tax, the macro consequences are inevitable:

Stifled Innovation:

That £439k is cash that should have gone toward buying new equipment, funding R&D, or expanding into new markets.

Frozen Hiring:

You cannot hire new engineers, salespeople, or factory staff when your growth capital is being systematically drained to chase paper valuations.

The Vulnerability Spiral:

If the economy dips and EBITDA drops to £500k, the tax liability doesn't disappear. The owner is forced to either sack staff or take on toxic corporate debt just to pay a tax on what the company is "estimated" to be worth.

A wealth tax isn't just a tax on the founder, it’s a direct line of attack on UK businesses. 

There's a reason countries like France, Sweden, and Germany repealed theirs. It’s time we look past the rhetoric and look at the maths. If you do that then, every time, you’ll realise that a wealth tax would be a catastrophic mistake.

[Jerboa]

I've probably got more knowledge than you.
Nobody in their right mind would call up the Russian MOD and say 'we've got this VIP on this train, at this time, please could you not shoot at it' and trust them not to "make a mistake" or have a "rogue element".
Back in the Cold War, the RCT ran a military train between West Germany and West Berlin - it was scheduled and agreed to by treaty, but it still had a contingent of armed troops on board "just in case", because nobody trusted either the (at the time) Soviet or East German forces or Governments.

You don't have more knowledge, Nato does inform Russia when VIP's visit Kiev, they do it so as to not end up with un-needed escalations.

[DastardlyDick]

Nato does inform Russia when VIP's visit Kiev, they do it so as to not end up with un-needed escalations.

Removed - there's no point debating with someone as brainwashed as you.

[RedKettle]

Removed - there's no point debating with someone as brainwashed as you.

Heard a quote today along the lines of conspiracy theories are made up by idiots to make them think they are intellectual. Made me think of Jerboa!

[Jerboa]

Removed - there's no point debating with someone as brainwashed as you.

Did you realise you were wrong, and prefer not to admit it? US & Russian defence do liaise with each other, they did during the Syrian civil war, and do to give a heads up on VIP's visiting Ukraine, why do you think no western presidents or PM's have ended up hit during Russian strikes? 

[Jerboa]

Heard a quote today along the lines of conspiracy theories are made up by idiots to make them think they are intellectual. Made me think of Jerboa!

And conspiracy theories are many times found true in 6 months. I was not saying Graham was killed in Ukraine, I was just saying the times and logistics make you question, we know governments lie to us.

[DastardlyDick]

Did you realise you were wrong, and prefer not to admit it? US & Russian defence do liaise with each other, they did during the Syrian civil war, and do to give a heads up on VIP's visiting Ukraine, why do you think no western presidents or PM's have ended up hit during Russian strikes? 

No, just that you're a brainwashed idiot.

[Zimbaman]

And conspiracy theories are many times found true in 6 months.

Well that’s simply not true 

[Jerboa]

No, just that you're a brainwashed idiot.

I know it's hard for you to admit you might be wrong, what I state about liaison is true.

[bigden40]

And conspiracy theories are many times found true in 6 months. I was not saying Graham was killed in Ukraine, I was just saying the times and logistics make you question, we know governments lie to us.

The suggestion that Graham didn’t die as reported is an extraordinary claim, and extraordinary claims require compelling evidence.

The “just asking questions” schtick doesn’t cut it.

And sure there are many conspiracy theories that turn out to be just plain old conspiracies, but even more turn out to be complete nonsense so your suggestion there is meaningless. 

[DastardlyDick]

I know it's hard for you to admit you might be wrong, what I state about liaison is true.

Where's your proof?

[Jonestown]

From the continued derogatory rhetoric at PMQ’s today Labour / Tory / LibDem don’t seem to have learned anything from Ann Widdecombe’s murder.

[Jerboa]

From the continued derogatory rhetoric at PMQ’s today Labour / Tory / LibDem don’t seem to have learned anything from Ann Widdecombe’s murder.

Politicians and their media surrogates have been labelling Farage, his party and anyone right of the wet Tory party as far right and a danger to democracy, Starmer at conference called Farage's immigration policies racist and could tear the country apart.   
External Link/Members Only

Or the horrible Jess Phillips.

Hidden Image/Members Only

[Squire Haggard]

Hopefully Aberdeen University sack this POS.

''A University worker said she hoped Ann Widdecombe had ‘screamed in agony’ has said she won’t delete the post after it became clear the ex-Reform spokeswoman was killed.

Aberdeen University has sought to distance itself from Heather Herbert, a web developer at the Scottish university, who reacted to news reports of the politician’s death on her Bluesky account.''

External Link/Members Only

External Link/Members Only

[scutty brown]

Or the horrible Jess Phillips.

Hidden Image/Members Only

You've failed to notice that Jess Phillips made that comment in 2010. The subsequent posters and yourself are taking it out of context: it has no relevance to the current issue

[Jerboa]

You've failed to notice that Jess Phillips made that comment in 2010. The subsequent posters and yourself are taking it out of context: it has no relevance to the current issue

We can point to recent online posts and speeches of numerous politicians and so called journalists. Because Phillips said in in 2010 about a elderly lady, that makes it okay?

[Zimbaman]

Or the horrible Jess Phillips.

Are we seriously trying to make out like a 2010 tweet about strictly come dancing was in any way made in relation to Anne Widdecombe’s death? Bizarre. Is there nothing more recent you can find?

And while Anne Widdecome was not a facsist, Reform do seem to have some of the same ideologies. One example that is associated with fascism is ultra nationalism. Just look at Nigel’s obsession with flags. His mis calculated resignation as MP a case in point. Why did he need two union flags for that? Don’t want to be called fascists? Stop doing fascist things 

Edit. I see Scutty already mentioned the tweet is from 2010 and has no relevance

[Jerboa]

Are we seriously trying to make out like a 2010 tweet about strictly come dancing was in any way made in relation to Anne Widdecombe’s death? Bizarre. Is there nothing more recent you can find?

And while Anne Widdecome was not a facsist, Reform do seem to have some of the same ideologies. One example that is associated with fascism is ultra nationalism. Just look at Nigel’s obsession with flags. His mis calculated resignation as MP a case in point. Why did he need two union flags for that? Don’t want to be called fascists? Stop doing fascist things 

Edit. I see Scutty already mentioned the tweet is from 2010 and has no relevance

How is having two flags fascist? 

[Zimbaman]

How is having two flags fascist? 

That would be the ultra nationalism. Seen the lampposts? 

[Squire Haggard]

Hopefully Aberdeen University sack this POS.

''A University worker said she hoped Ann Widdecombe had ‘screamed in agony’ has said she won’t delete the post after it became clear the ex-Reform spokeswoman was killed.

Aberdeen University has sought to distance itself from Heather Herbert, a web developer at the Scottish university, who reacted to news reports of the politician’s death on her Bluesky account.''

External Link/Members Only

External Link/Members Only

Swine Fever outbreak at the Constabulary. Officer Pigg now gets involved because of the media coverage. Their doughnut munching has been interrupted.

External Link/Members Only

[Jerboa]

That would be the ultra nationalism. Seen the lampposts? 

Keep taking your medication buddy.

[whiskyfan]

That would be the ultra nationalism. Seen the lampposts? 

Yep, the flag nonces.

External Link/Members Only