Author Topic: The Politics Thread  (Read 895551 times)

Online Jerboa

I think there's a massive difference between preventing a possible genocide like the Serbs were starting in Kosovo and a "threat" you've manufactured and control yourself like Donnas - remember the "little green men"?

Was that like in Libya in 2011 where Nato went in to stop Ghadaffi from committing genocide against the rebels? Turns out afterwards, western media and politicians over embellished Ghadaffi's forces actions, just so they could get regime change. Turned out nice in Libaya now, where the Islamist rebels our governments backed (remember the Abedi family of the Manchester arena bombing) are in control, with slave markets and thousands of migrants crossing the Med.

So do you think the government in Kiev wasn't bombing it's own citizens in the Donbass from April 2014? I can post footage of western media reporting the fact.

Offline scutty brown

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Russia tried to come to a agreement with Ukraine, the Minsk agreement was ratified at the UNSC, Ukraine refused to implement it and the US told them don't worry about it. Watch this clip of Zelensky in 2019 at the Minsk talks, he is sniggering while Putin is talking about implementing the accords, because he had no intention of doing what was required? External Link/Members Only
That's just selective editing of disjointed unrelated pieces of film and may even be AI generated. There's nothing to link Zelensky's movements to Putin speaking. And do you really think anyone would be filming the Minsk talks on multiple angles from a mobile phone? Totally ridiculous idea.
Typical Russian disinformation. Using that as an example ruins any credibility you may have.

Quote
As I have mentioned before, Russia went in on 24th Feb 2022, because they had evidence of the Ukrainian armed forces were preparing a ground offensive against the two Donbass republics, that if were not stopped could have ended in disaster for the people of the Donbass.
Is that an even bigger disaster than the one the Russians have created for the Donbass by invading?
« Last Edit: June 30, 2026, 03:32:14 pm by scutty brown »

Online Jerboa

That's just selective editing of disjointed unrelated pieces of film and may even be AI generated. There's nothing to link Zelensky's movements to Putin speaking.
Typical Russian disinformation. Using that as an example ruins any credibility you may have.
Is that an even bigger disaster than the one the Russians have created for the Donbass by invading?

Zelensky was elected on a platform of making peace with Russia, after he was elected he made speeches claiming he was genuine, then the Bandera Nazis had a little chat to him, about hanging him from lampposts in Kiev if he dared implement Minsk.

If Putin had sat on his hands and allowed a superior AFU force to conquer the Donbass, then he could have likely been kicked out of the Kremlin, if you listen to locals in the Donbass after Russian forces came in, they say they are glad they finally came, but many gave criticism of Putin, asking why didn't he send the army in 2014?

For a more realist report of the present situation, listen to Alexander Mercouris External Link/Members Only

Online mills_and_bhuna

I usually glaze over with the Russia/Ukraine conversations as it really does just go round and round.

As always two things can be true at once. Yes, “the west” has acted provocatively in Russia's backyard and they can understandably take exception to that. But that does not justify the 2022 invasion and waging of war for the last 4 years.

So Mills has a legitimate point about Western (US) provocations going back to, at least, the 2014 coup.  Many of the things he’s said about that are accurate and fair observations.  But I presume he also knows that that, in itself, is not justification for the last 4 years. I also presume that is why he never answers the question when Doc puts him on the spot on this topic.
Says the guy who seems to think Trump is justified in bombing Iran on extremely sketchy grounds.
 The West's moral high ground is an illusion built on propaganda.
Even the Americans are starting to notice.

Online mills_and_bhuna

Interesting piece by Larry Sanger, co-founder of Wikipedia, about the problems of Wikipedia. 

External Link/Members Only
Interesting that you're reading 'the Free Press'. Chief editor, sorry Chief 'toadie' Bari Weiss   :lol:
It's behind a paywall so there's no way I'm funding one of the biggest supporters of the genocide .
Also funny looking at the other articles on show that they deem Ben Shapiro to be a journalist not tainted with the whiff of extreme bias.

Offline bigden40

Interesting that you're reading 'the Free Press'. Chief editor, sorry Chief 'toadie' Bari Weiss   :lol:
It's behind a paywall so there's no way I'm funding one of the biggest supporters of the genocide .
Also funny looking at the other articles on show that they deem Ben Shapiro to be a journalist not tainted with the whiff of extreme bias.

Boring.

Critiquing Larry Sanger’s points about Wikipedia by … not reading them, and instead doing a vibes-based audit of the masthead?  Bold strategy Cotton.  The article can be read with a free account, for which I just used a burner email address.

Also Chief toadie Bari Weiss isn’t just running the Free Press anymore, she’s editor-in-chief of CBS News too, since Paramount Skydance bought the outlet for $150 million. So I’m surprised you omitted to bring in some wibble about Larry and David Ellison into your non-argument. Or is that what you meant by the “biggest funder of the genocide”?

As for Ben Shapiro ‘not tainted with bias’ -  nice work slipping that in for your favourite pastime, arguing with a strawman of your own making.

“I won’t read it because I don’t like who edits it” isn’t a rebuttal, it’s just confirmation you’d rather stay comfortable than be challenged. Let me know when you’ve got something on the substance.

Offline bigden40

Says the guy who seems to think Trump is justified in bombing Iran on extremely sketchy grounds.
 The West's moral high ground is an illusion built on propaganda.
Even the Americans are starting to notice.

I refer you to my earlier response to the nocturnal desert rodent.

Offline RedKettle

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Zelensky was elected on a platform of making peace with Russia, after he was elected he made speeches claiming he was genuine, then the Bandera Nazis had a little chat to him, about hanging him from lampposts in Kiev if he dared implement Minsk.

If Putin had sat on his hands and allowed a superior AFU force to conquer the Donbass, then he could have likely been kicked out of the Kremlin, if you listen to locals in the Donbass after Russian forces came in, they say they are glad they finally came, but many gave criticism of Putin, asking why didn't he send the army in 2014?

For a more realist report of the present situation, listen to Alexander Mercouris External Link/Members Only

Even if the Donbass fiction was true that gets you a possible (but shaky) justification for Donbass, not for an invasion of the entire country!  An invasion that Putin had talked about years before and had been trying to build an excuse for.  As I have said before your support for Russia is shameful.

Offline bigden40

Russia tried to come to a agreement with Ukraine, the Minsk agreement was ratified at the UNSC, Ukraine refused to implement it and the US told them don't worry about it. Watch this clip of Zelensky in 2019 at the Minsk talks, he is sniggering while Putin is talking about implementing the accords, because he had no intention of doing what was required? External Link/Members Only

As I have mentioned before, Russia went in on 24th Feb 2022, because they had evidence of the Ukrainian armed forces were preparing a ground offensive against the two Donbass republics, that if were not stopped could have ended in disaster for the people of the Donbass.

It is correct that the UNSC unanimously endorsed Minsk II via Resolution 2202 in February 2015, which endorsed the “Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements,” signed in Minsk on 12 February 2015.

But “Russia tried to come to an agreement and Ukraine refused” oversimplifies the dispute. Minsk II included a commitment by Kyiv to organise local elections and grant special status to separatist-held areas, and called for the withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and mercenaries from Ukraine, plus reinstatement of Ukraine’s control over its border.

As for “Ukraine refused to implement it and the US told them don't worry about it.”   Implementation stalled on both sides: Ukraine wanted security/border control restored before elections under Ukrainian law, while Russia/the separatists wanted elections and special status granted first, while Ukraine and Western officials argue Russia never withdrew forces or relinquished control of the border. The US position has been that Russia is and always has been the instigator of the conflict and that it methodically obstructed the OSCE’s monitoring mission, the opposite of “the US told Ukraine not to worry about it.”

The claim that Russia invaded because Ukraine was about to launch an imminent offensive against Donetsk/Luhansk that justified a preemptive full-scale invasion of Ukraine is the official Russian government justification, you seem happy to accept that at face value which is why you get labelled the way you do.  But it is not corroborated by independent intelligence assessments, and is contested by Western governments, Ukraine, and most independent analysts, who point to Russia’s own buildup of 150,000+ troops along Ukraine’s borders for months prior, and Putin’s prior writings/speeches questioning Ukraine’s right to exist as a separate state.


« Last Edit: June 30, 2026, 04:57:25 pm by bigden40 »

Offline Doc Holliday

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I refer you to my earlier response to the nocturnal desert rodent.

Who continues to avoid engaging with me  :D

Jerboa, do you think that repeatedly copying and pasting the content of your previous posts will somehow change people's opinion?

Anyway, it is now just a little over two months since you returned to the forum after your ban was overturned.

How do you think that has gone?


Online mills_and_bhuna

Boring.

Critiquing Larry Sanger’s points about Wikipedia by … not reading them, and instead doing a vibes-based audit of the masthead?  Bold strategy Cotton.  The article can be read with a free account, for which I just used a burner email address.

Also Chief toadie Bari Weiss isn’t just running the Free Press anymore, she’s editor-in-chief of CBS News too, since Paramount Skydance bought the outlet for $150 million. So I’m surprised you omitted to bring in some wibble about Larry and David Ellison into your non-argument. Or is that what you meant by the “biggest funder of the genocide”?

As for Ben Shapiro ‘not tainted with bias’ -  nice work slipping that in for your favourite pastime, arguing with a strawman of your own making.

“I won’t read it because I don’t like who edits it” isn’t a rebuttal, it’s just confirmation you’d rather stay comfortable than be challenged. Let me know when you’ve got something on the substance.
Yes  She's editor-in-Chief of CBS as well.
And turned that into a Zionist rag even worse than before.
I thought you might have ignored the Shapiro comment but you just couldn't resist sticking up for your favourite genocidal ethnostate and it's shills.

Online Jerboa

It is correct that the UNSC unanimously endorsed Minsk II via Resolution 2202 in February 2015, which endorsed the “Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements,” signed in Minsk on 12 February 2015.

But “Russia tried to come to an agreement and Ukraine refused” oversimplifies the dispute. Minsk II included a commitment by Kyiv to organise local elections and grant special status to separatist-held areas, and called for the withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and mercenaries from Ukraine, plus reinstatement of Ukraine’s control over its border.

As for “Ukraine refused to implement it and the US told them don't worry about it.”   Implementation stalled on both sides: Ukraine wanted security/border control restored before elections under Ukrainian law, while Russia/the separatists wanted elections and special status granted first, while Ukraine and Western officials argue Russia never withdrew forces or relinquished control of the border. The US position has been that Russia is and always has been the instigator of the conflict and that it methodically obstructed the OSCE’s monitoring mission, the opposite of “the US told Ukraine not to worry about it.” The instigator of the conflict was the US neocons, when they instigated the Maidan coup, or tbf go back to the Nato Bucharest summit of 2008, where Bush announced Georgia & Ukraine will join Nato.

The claim that Russia invaded because Ukraine was about to launch an imminent offensive against Donetsk/Luhansk that justified a preemptive full-scale invasion of Ukraine is the official Russian government justification, you seem happy to accept that at face value which is why you get labelled the way you do.  But it is not corroborated by independent intelligence assessments, and is contested by Western governments, Ukraine, and most independent analysts, who point to Russia’s own buildup of 150,000+ troops along Ukraine’s borders for months prior, and Putin’s prior writings/speeches questioning Ukraine’s right to exist as a separate state. There is evidence, the OSCE monitors who tbf were pro Ukrainian in the main were reporting a high increase of Ukrainian artillery fire in the Donbass for weeks, which looked like a pre offensive barrage.

Sure there are two sides of a story, but I stand by my comments the US and Europe told Ukraine not to bother with Minsk, there is several relevant politicians who said Minsk was a time waste to rebuild Ukrainian military after their defeat in 2015. Ukraine is their puppet, they were only following orders.

Online Jerboa

Who continues to avoid engaging with me  :D

Jerboa, do you think that repeatedly copying and pasting the content of your previous posts will somehow change people's opinion?

Anyway, it is now just a little over two months since you returned to the forum after your ban was overturned.

How do you think that has gone?

Yes it's been good, read some decent info and posted some reviews.  :hi:

Offline Massagemanmr

China is a clear winner from Trump’s war in Middle East, report concludes

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Offline Massagemanmr

Yes  She's editor-in-Chief of CBS as well.
And turned that into a Zionist rag even worse than before.
I thought you might have ignored the Shapiro comment but you just couldn't resist sticking up for your favourite genocidal ethnostate and it's shills.
what did you expect from Mr you hate the Jews / anti semetisim/ holocaust denier  :lol:

Offline RandomGuy99

This defence spending review is embarrassing.

Not replacing the Type 45s?

Not replacing the Wildcat helicopter.

Drones are good for some tasks, but human pilots will be the most flexible. Once they lose those skills they will be very hard to get back.

Ukraine has taught us that wars are still a numbers and having 20s really expensive smart bits of kit doesn't help when the 20 bits of kit get destroyed in the first 30 minutes of a war.

Argentina will take back the Falklands soon and that might be a good thing in the long run.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2026, 11:31:39 pm by RandomGuy99 »

Offline scutty brown

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Zelensky was elected on a platform of making peace with Russia, after he was elected he made speeches claiming he was genuine, then the Bandera Nazis had a little chat to him, about hanging him from lampposts in Kiev if he dared implement Minsk.

If Putin had sat on his hands and allowed a superior AFU force to conquer the Donbass, then he could have likely been kicked out of the Kremlin, if you listen to locals in the Donbass after Russian forces came in, they say they are glad they finally came, but many gave criticism of Putin, asking why didn't he send the army in 2014?

For a more realist report of the present situation, listen to Alexander Mercouris External Link/Members Only

So you're deliberately avoiding my point that the video you posted as alleged "proof" is in fact confabulated faked bullshit

Offline scutty brown

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This defence spending review is embarrassing.

Not replacing the Type 45s?

Not replacing the Wildcat helicopter.

Drones are good for some tasks, but human pilots will be the most flexible. Once they lose those skills they will be very hard to get back.

Ukraine has taught us that wars are still a numbers and having 20s really expensive smart bits of kit doesn't help when the 20 bits of kit get destroyed in the first 30 minutes of a war.

Argentina will take back the Falklands soon and that might be a good thing in the long run.

Duncan Sandys II

Offline Zimbaman

So you're deliberately avoiding my point that the video you posted as alleged "proof" is in fact confabulated faked bullshit

I honestly don’t know why anyone responds to him. He’s so taken in by Russian propaganda it’s absolutely bizarre. Anyone that gets their ‘facts’ from YouTube needs to give their head a wobble  :lol:

Offline Adoniron

I honestly don’t know why anyone responds to him. He’s so taken in by Russian propaganda it’s absolutely bizarre. Anyone that gets their ‘facts’ from YouTube needs to give their head a wobble  :lol:

He and M&B have completely derailed this thread with their pro Russian anti western propaganda. There seems to be no discussion of anything else nowadays. I honestly think we need to ignore them both.

Offline Vice Admiral

I don't find Andy Burnham's recent activities and statements very reassuring.

At the moment he’s just the MP for Makerfield.  Nothing more.  There’s too much neo-triumphalism and glad-handing going on from someone who, to all intents and purposes, has no legitimacy.  A bit more humility and tact would be desirable.

Meanwhile, this business of setting up a branch of 10 Downing Street in Manchester is a silly gimmick that is likely to achieve nothing and to lead to confusion and inefficiency. And if I hear the word "Manchesterism" once more I shall, like Violet-Elizabeth Bott, “thcream and thcream until I'm thick".

Oh, and Burnham intends to provide “good growth in every postcode and hope in every heart”.  (Yuk.)

Good luck with that.

I’m beginning to think that the usurper Burnham may turn out to be the most annoying Prime Minister of my lifetime.  (A competitive field...)

He’s serious:
External Link/Members Only

“Andy Burnham plans to spend some of his working week in Manchester if he becomes prime minister, the BBC has been told.  It is not clear whether he will spend a set number of days there, or whether there will be a more informal arrangement.  But he plans to split his time between Downing Street and the North West, it is understood.”

Absolutely ridiculous. 

The beating heart of the United Kingdom government is in Whitehall, and that’s where the Prime Minister needs to be based.  It's where almost all the people who need to see him are, and it's where important foreigners come.  They can't be expected to schlep up to some God-forsaken rainswept "town" (© Donald Trump) in the north-west that they've never heard of. 
______________________

Meanwhile, I've conscientiously reviewed in my mind all the Prime Ministers of my lifetime (right back to Herbert Asquith), and I have indeed decided that – even before he takes office – the usurper Burnham is the most irritating.  Yes, including Boris Johnson.

Hilary Rose of the Times seems to have similar views.  Her piece in yesterday’s paper about her three-week “digital detox” includes this:  “Either way, I didn’t know the result of the Makerfield by-election until ten days after it happened and I was thus spared the sight of Andy Burnham visibly puffing up more each day with his own importance. For this, I am grateful.”

« Last Edit: July 01, 2026, 08:04:22 am by Vice Admiral »

Offline Doc Holliday

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Yes it's been good, read some decent info and posted some reviews.  :hi:

  :D You have indeed seven in total I think? Admirable and hugely valuable. That's seven more than me. Of course, I assume promising to post reviews was part of the T&Cs of your probation?

Indeed your second post upon your return was a review. However, your first was in the Politics thread. From your perspective how do you think that has panned out?

Offline Doc Holliday

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I honestly don’t know why anyone responds to him.

He and M&B have completely derailed this thread with their pro Russian anti western propaganda. There seems to be no discussion of anything else nowadays. I honestly think we need to ignore them both.

That is something that is never going to happen.

Online Charliehutton

Apparently Starmer has left Burnham a £5 billion 'black hole' in the defence budget. Like the black hole the wicked Tories left to Ms Reeves.

They do love a black hole, don't they......!

Offline DastardlyDick

Zelensky was elected on a platform of making peace with Russia
Was he? He promised to bring the War in Donbas to an end, that's not necessarily the same thing as "making peace". He was elected by over 70% of the eligible electorate (not including Russian Occupied areas) He also offered to hold wartime Presidential Elections "within months" in December last year if the US and other Allies assisted with Electoral Security and the Ukrainian Parliament agreed by suspending the constitution, which prohibits Elections during War. Even his political opponents have come out against this.

Offline RandomGuy99

BBC News - Trump made more than $1bn from crypto in first year back in office
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Online Jerboa

This defence spending review is embarrassing.

Not replacing the Type 45s?

Not replacing the Wildcat helicopter.

Drones are good for some tasks, but human pilots will be the most flexible. Once they lose those skills they will be very hard to get back.

Ukraine has taught us that wars are still a numbers and having 20s really expensive smart bits of kit doesn't help when the 20 bits of kit get destroyed in the first 30 minutes of a war.

Argentina will take back the Falklands soon and that might be a good thing in the long run.

We are becoming a laughing stock, not replacing destroyers is mad, they are the anti air defence for the fleet, it reminds me of the labour government of the 60's who scrapped the building of the CVA carriers.
Simple cost cutting as they won't cut the huge benefit budget, so will rely on Temu defence.

Offline RandomGuy99

We are becoming a laughing stock, not replacing destroyers is mad, they are the anti air defence for the fleet, it reminds me of the labour government of the 60's who scrapped the building of the CVA carriers.
Simple cost cutting as they won't cut the huge benefit budget, so will rely on Temu defence.
We'll have two expensive aircraft carriers with no air defence so they'll last about 10 minutes in a war.

Online Jerboa

I honestly don’t know why anyone responds to him. He’s so taken in by Russian propaganda it’s absolutely bizarre. Anyone that gets their ‘facts’ from YouTube needs to give their head a wobble  :lol:

Really? So only from trusted state sponsored sources like the BBC?  :rolleyes:

He and M&B have completely derailed this thread with their pro Russian anti western propaganda. There seems to be no discussion of anything else nowadays. I honestly think we need to ignore them both.

So you are someone who doesn't like debate or alternate opinions, both west and Russia and Ukraine use propaganda, you just need to take everything with a pinch of salt. How about we just ignore you? As you say very little of any interest.  :D

Online Jerboa

  :D You have indeed seven in total I think? Admirable and hugely valuable. That's seven more than me. Of course, I assume promising to post reviews was part of the T&Cs of your probation?

Indeed your second post upon your return was a review. However, your first was in the Politics thread. From your perspective how do you think that has panned out?

No there were no T&C's, just told to behave myself, which I am trying to do.

Offline Thephoenix

Apparently Starmer has left Burnham a £5 billion 'black hole' in the defence budget. Like the black hole the wicked Tories left to Ms Reeves.

They do love a black hole, don't they......!

Who doesn't  :rolleyes:

Online Jerboa


Online Charliehutton

Who doesn't  :rolleyes:

 :D I'm claiming an assist for that tap-in, TP, although I was expecting something referring to Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott...

Offline Doc Holliday

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No there were no T&C's, just told to behave myself, which I am trying to do.

 :lol:  Of course you are.

So you didn't promise the owner you would post reviews? Are you sure about that?

Anyway as usual, you are selectively avoiding the key question I asked last time which was.

]Indeed your second post upon your return was a review. However, your first was in the Politics thread. From your perspective how do you think that has panned out?

If you are avoiding answering clear questions to wind me up then that is fine (although it doesn't) but I don't think that is why you do it. Why do you do it?

Offline Vice Admiral

I don't find Andy Burnham's recent activities and statements very reassuring.

At the moment he’s just the MP for Makerfield.  Nothing more.  There’s too much neo-triumphalism and glad-handing going on from someone who, to all intents and purposes, has no legitimacy.  A bit more humility and tact would be desirable.

Meanwhile, this business of setting up a branch of 10 Downing Street in Manchester is a silly gimmick that is likely to achieve nothing and to lead to confusion and inefficiency.  And if I hear the word "Manchesterism" once more I shall, like Violet-Elizabeth Bott, “thcream and thcream until I'm thick".

Oh, and Burnham intends to provide “good growth in every postcode and hope in every heart”.  (Yuk.)

Good luck with that.

I’m beginning to think that the usurper Burnham may turn out to be the most annoying Prime Minister of my lifetime.  (A competitive field...)

He’s serious:
External Link/Members Only

“Andy Burnham plans to spend some of his working week in Manchester if he becomes prime minister, the BBC has been told.  It is not clear whether he will spend a set number of days there, or whether there will be a more informal arrangement.  But he plans to split his time between Downing Street and the North West, it is understood.”

Absolutely ridiculous. 

The beating heart of the United Kingdom government is in Whitehall, and that’s where the Prime Minister needs to be based.  It's where almost all the people who need to see him are, and it's where important foreigners come.  They can't be expected to schlep up to some God-forsaken rainswept "town" (© Donald Trump) in the north-west that they've never heard of. 
______________________

Meanwhile, I've conscientiously reviewed in my mind all the Prime Ministers of my lifetime (right back to Herbert Asquith), and I have indeed decided that – even before he takes office – the usurper Burnham is the most irritating.  Yes, including Boris Johnson.

Hilary Rose of the Times seems to have similar views.  Her piece in yesterday’s paper about her three-week “digital detox” includes this:  “Either way, I didn’t know the result of the Makerfield by-election until ten days after it happened and I was thus spared the sight of Andy Burnham visibly puffing up more each day with his own importance. For this, I am grateful.”

Further to my earlier comments about the usurper Burnham's plan for a No. 10 in the North, I’ve just happened upon this:
External Link/Members Only

"Andy Burnham," says the article, "has suffered a major setback after a new YouGov poll showed that just 23% of Britons believe he would govern in the interests of the whole country if handed greater power. The survey found 27% expect the Greater Manchester mayor to govern mainly in the interests of the North of England, while 15% said somewhere else and 35% were unsure."

Burnham would do well to remember that there are many more voters (combined) in the South, the West, the Midlands and East Anglia than in the North.

Not forgetting Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland...

Offline Jonestown

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Andy Burnham comes from Aintree, does that make him a scouser or a wool ?

Offline Blackpool Rock

Apparently Starmer has left Burnham a £5 billion 'black hole' in the defence budget. Like the black hole the wicked Tories left to Ms Reeves.

They do love a black hole, don't they......!
Sorry Charlie but that seems to be a false equivalence, there's an extra £15Bn needed for defence spending of which £10.3Bn has been found already from other budgets and the remaining £4.7Bn needs to be found in the next budget

That's basically what budgets do is allocate money and move money around from one place or budget to another, the remaining £4.7Bn is known about from day1 and would need to be found by whichever Labour PM/Chancellor was in power at the next election.
What it isn't doing is allocating a shit load of money that is totally uncosted going into a General Election and making out that everything is A'OK and deliberately handing the next person a huge fucking booby trap  :bomb:

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Offline timsussex

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apparently Burnham our "Would-be prime minister tells Andrew Marr he will not raise VAT, income tax or national insurance but there is flexibility for other taxes to rise"

so place your bets on which

Offline Vice Admiral

On Wednesday night's edition of The Wrap on Sky News, Adam Boulton, the doyen of political commentators, said that there were informed murmurings to the effect that Nigel Farage was thinking of stepping down as leader of Reform UK.  Why?  Because he's fed up with being criticised over his financial affairs; because he may have health problems; and because he was disheartened by Reform's poor performance in the Makerfield by-election.

To these I would add that he must now know that Reform will not get an overall majority in the 2029 General Election – in which case he may not have the stomach for trying to run a minority or (very unsatisfactory) coalition government.

Perhaps he's also realistic enough to know that he would never be able to achieve the things he claims he would be able to.  Better, perhaps, to be a "might-have-been" than a "has-been"?

If he does go, it will be interesting.

Would Reform indeed turn out to have been little more than a one-man band?

And who would be the new leader?  I imagine it would be between Richard Tice (who I think always comes across quite well) or the slimy turncoat Robert Jenrick. 

Offline sparkus

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I think there's a simpler reading.  He knows his £5m bung is likely to get him some kind of parliamentary sanction, this will be from MPs with a massive interest in seeing the back of him.  If suspended then he becomes eligible for a recall petition to force a by-election.

The trigger for that is 10 per cent of local electors, probably wouldn't be hard with Rupert Lowe's mob going door to door and locals pissed off with their absent MP.  This would then bring about the Mother of all By-elections.  The popcorn factories would be working overnight and freakshows would be feeling the heat from the competition too.

Offline Vice Admiral

I think there's a simpler reading.  He knows his £5m bung is likely to get him some kind of parliamentary sanction, this will be from MPs with a massive interest in seeing the back of him.  If suspended then he becomes eligible for a recall petition to force a by-election.

The trigger for that is 10 per cent of local electors, probably wouldn't be hard with Rupert Lowe's mob going door to door and locals pissed off with their absent MP.  This would then bring about the Mother of all By-elections.  The popcorn factories would be working overnight and freakshows would be feeling the heat from the competition too.

Good point.

Google AI summarises the situation as follows:  “Nigel Farage is currently under formal investigation by Parliament's Standards Commissioner regarding an undisclosed £5 million gift from cryptocurrency investor Christopher Harborne.  If the watchdog concludes he broke Commons rules, sanctions could range from a formal apology to a suspension that could trigger a by-election.”

I wonder which way the Standards Commissioner – one Daniel Greenberg – will jump.  It's a very consequential decision...

Meanwhile, much to my surprise, I see that in the category “Next UK General Election: Most Seats” the bookies now have Labour and Reform UK on almost exactly the same odds, with Labour fractionally ahead.

How the next three years will pan out is anyone’s guess – but these odds reflect the way the wind is blowing in the summer of 2026.

Offline DastardlyDick

apparently Burnham our "Would-be prime minister tells Andrew Marr he will not raise VAT, income tax or national insurance but there is flexibility for other taxes to rise"

so place your bets on which
Haven't seen the interview, but was that personal Income Tax and NI or Company?
I would guess that a massive clamp down on Tax avoidance schemes would raise a fair bit.

Offline bigden40

Betting odds reflect nothing more than ensuring the bookies vig based on bets that have been placed.

Offline Jonestown

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apparently Burnham our "Would-be prime minister tells Andrew Marr he will not raise VAT, income tax or national insurance but there is flexibility for other taxes to rise"

so place your bets on which

CGT, IHT, Land Tax, Mansion Tax, Exit Tax, ………………

Offline Vice Admiral

Betting odds reflect nothing more than ensuring the bookies vig based on bets that have been placed.

Yes, bookies don't like losing money, and the odds they offer try to ensure they won't.

Nonetheless those odds often – arguably, usually – reflect, as I put it in my last post, the way the wind is blowing.

Some punters place bets for sentimental or irrational reasons.  Many others bet hard-headedly and with good instincts.


Offline Blackpool Rock

Haven't seen the interview, but was that personal Income Tax and NI or Company?
I would guess that a massive clamp down on Tax avoidance schemes would raise a fair bit.
But haven't Govt's of both colours been saying they will crack down on tax avoidance and start getting some of these tax shy multinationals to pay their fair share for decades now, not sure how much if any progress has ever been made  :unknown:

Offline Blackpool Rock

CGT, IHT, Land Tax, Mansion Tax, Exit Tax, ………………
WTF's Exit tax when it's at home, a tax on shitting  :rolleyes:  :D  :unknown:

OK so a quick Google indicates it's a tax on people emigrating who have been here and made loads of money etc, whatever next a tax on breathing  :D

Offline Watts.E.Dunn

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Always thought that Al Murray was Nigel Farages cousin, not much between them really!..

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