The Politics Thread

[bigden40]

Two party system works, until it doesn’t. Then the balance shifts and one or both parties are replaced …. as the whigs and liberals can attest.

The latest couple of decades or so has been dominated by globalism on both sides of the aisle. Globalism isn’t working and the tide is changing.

[Jerboa]

I think Britain has done pretty well since the war and has been a fantastic place for me to grow up in, work hard and raise a family. I am incredibly proud to be British and wish that those who constantly run us down, like Farage, TR and you would fuck off abroad to a country that you might like and stop ruining this one.

Okay good, and how is the country now for the youngsters who are not going to do better than their parents, can't afford to get on the property ladder? While the boomers have it good.

[Blackpool Rock]

It’s pretty much kept the extremists on the fringes where they belong… I’d call that a success 

Apart from Farage getting Brexit, AKA the tail that wagged the dog 

[Blackpool Rock]

Okay good, and how is the country now for the youngsters who are not going to do better than their parents, can't afford to get on the property ladder? While the boomers have it good.

It's always been a struggle to get on the property ladder for working class people

[Zimbaman]

Apart from Farage getting Brexit, AKA the tail that wagged the dog 

True enough. And he’s still here making things worse for everyone.

[RedKettle]

Okay good, and how is the country now for the youngsters who are not going to do better than their parents, can't afford to get on the property ladder? While the boomers have it good.

You are now changing the point you made.  You mentioned since WW2 not me, now you are talking about current issues. Anyway you clearly hate the country I do not.

If you now want to talk about the current situation yes we have problems, just like many other established countries.  Some of that has been caused by Brexit which was the product of Farage and has severely impacted our economy. 

There is a real issue for youngsters as you say and our political system has not responded well, not least because older generations tend to vote and are a powerful lobby - hence the fuss over the removal of winter fuel (a very logical policy which was badly implemented) and the refusal to remove the triple lock, a policy that did its work years ago and must be ended.

There are also major issues to be dealt with on AI, simultaneously a massive threat and huge opportunity. 

Am I confident in the two main parties do a great job on this, of course not.  Do I think the people running Reform or Greens have any chance of doing better?  Not a chance.

Overall do I believe the UK will do OK in the medium term, yes because we are great and so long as we keep the likes of Farage away from power it will be fine.

[RedKettle]

It's always been a struggle to get on the property ladder for working class people

I hate to agree with the racist idiot but it is actually worse now if you look at stats like the ratio of average earnings to property values.  There is a real problem that needs addressing - building more houses would help if anyone could actually sort the planning system and other regulations.

[Jerboa]

I hate to agree with the racist idiot but it is actually worse now if you look at stats like the ratio of average earnings to property values.  There is a real problem that needs addressing - building more houses would help if anyone could actually sort the planning system and other regulations.

Do you actually think that word has any power any more? You hate to agree with someone who is stating facts. 

[RedKettle]

Do you actually think that word has any power any more? You hate to agree with someone who is stating facts. 

No I hate to agree with you because you are a nasty unpleasant piece of work who hates this country and supports a dictatorship like Russia who are a real enemy to the UK and you constantly repeat Putin's propaganda talking points.  If you judge a man by the company he keeps than your love of TR also condemns you. In addition you are racist which just adds the sour icing to an already rancid cake.  However in that case re housing you were correct.

You asked.

[Thephoenix]

True enough. And he’s still here making things worse for everyone.

I guess not for the many folk who seemingly have lost faith and trust in the two main parties, to deal with uncontrolled legal and illegal immigration and who feel that Reform may offer the solutions.

Also those who think that reform take more seriously their dissatisfaction with living standards, the NHS, welfare costs, transgender issues and the system of government.

It could be argued that the rise of Reform has , if nothing else, given the two main parties a kick up the arse.
They've had to take seriously those issues that are concerning people and realise that we may be seeing a decline in their comfortable two party system.

I suppose he's made it better for members of The Green Party who may see themselves as possibly the most effective opposition to Reform.

He's certainly made things better for the left wing of the labour party who will have a new prime minister, who may be able to reverse the party's decline and who knows, even take a revitalised socialist government to winning a second term.

It's a funny ol' game.

[Blackpool Rock]

I guess not for the many folk who seemingly have lost faith and trust in the two main parties, to deal with uncontrolled legal and illegal immigration and who feel that Reform may offer the solutions.

Also those who think that reform take more seriously their dissatisfaction with living standards, the NHS, welfare costs, transgender issues and the system of government.

It could be argued that the rise of Reform has , if nothing else, given the two main parties a kick up the arse.
They've had to take seriously those issues that are concerning people and realise that we may be seeing a decline in their comfortable two party system.

I suppose he's made it better for members of The Green Party who may see themselves as possibly the most effective opposition to Reform.

He's certainly made things better for the left wing of the labour party who will have a new prime minister, who may be able to reverse the party's decline and who knows, even take a revitalised socialist government to winning a second term.

It's a funny ol' game.

The thing is though that on controlled and uncontrolled immigration Reform claimed that it would all be sorted and all we had to do was leave, the reality is however that it went up, the devil as they say is in the detail.

Again people may FEEL that Reform will take things like living standards; the NHS and Welfare more seriously but again I think the reality will give them a big shock, I see the NHS suffering and moving more towards an American style system that basically nobody can afford to fund and the great unwashed benefit claiming Reform voters will have a shock when welfare is cut and they actually get told to get a job 

I agree on things like Trans issues that the main parties got themselves tied up in knots with what is in reality a fringe issue, thankfully things seem to have calmed down since the courts declared that people couldn't use certain Female only spaces

[Vice Admiral]

Those who care for the political health of Britain should be praying for the return of a strong Conservative party and a strong Labour party – and, indeed, of two-party politics – and for the rabble-rousers Farage and Polanski to disappear back into the undergrowth whence they came.

Am I confident in the two main parties do a great job on this, of course not.  Do I think the people running Reform or Greens have any chance of doing better?  Not a chance.

Were we always as irrational about politics as we have become?  In my view, the answer is no.

If you chose to vote for Wilson over Heath, or Thatcher over Kinnock, you generally had some pretty sound reasons for doing so.  OK, part of it was class-based tribalism, but not all of it, or Harold Macmillan wouldn’t have won the 1959 General Election with a huge majority and then Harold Wilson ditto in 1966.  Similarly Thatcher and later Blair.

Now British politics has become like the Eurovision Song Contest or the X Factor.  No serious person thinks that a Reform UK government (possible) or a Green government (thankfully, inconceivable) would be anything but a disaster.  Yet the latest Ipsos poll has these two parties on 41% combined:
External Link/Members Only

Who are these people?

Well, one of them is my conspiracy theory friend who believes that the moon landings were faked and that Covid was a hoax.  But who are the other 22,631,999?

Finally, I would recast Red Kettle’s question to another subject.  Q: “Do I think Andy Burnham has any chance of doing better than Burnham?”  A: “Not a chance."

The Labour MPs who in effect got rid of Starmer – or at least those of them with an IQ over 80 – almost certainly know that’s the case.  But their focus is on trying to keep their seats in the 2029 General Election, and they think that the usurper Burnham is an X Factor winner.

[Thephoenix]

The thing is though that on controlled and uncontrolled immigration Reform claimed that it would all be sorted and all we had to do was leave, the reality is however that it went up, the devil as they say is in the detail.

Again people may FEEL that Reform will take things like living standards; the NHS and Welfare more seriously but again I think the reality will give them a big shock, I see the NHS suffering and moving more towards an American style system that basically nobody can afford to fund and the great unwashed benefit claiming Reform voters will have a shock when welfare is cut and they actually get told to get a job 

I agree on things like Trans issues that the main parties got themselves tied up in knots with what is in reality a fringe issue, thankfully things seem to have calmed down since the courts declared that people couldn't use certain Female only spaces

I agree.
Reform are offering a panacea, but with  so much discontent and distrust for the major parties , the Reform's salesmen are doing a good job selling the dream.

[Jerboa]

No I hate to agree with you because you are a nasty unpleasant piece of work who hates this country and supports a dictatorship like Russia who are a real enemy to the UK and you constantly repeat Putin's propaganda talking points.  If you judge a man by the company he keeps than your love of TR also condemns you. In addition you are racist which just adds the sour icing to an already rancid cake.  However in that case re housing you were correct.

You asked.

He who is without sin cast the first stone, those are wise words, unfortunately you are the one who thinks they are morally superior to others, I fought for my country, and resent being told I hate Britain, or support Russia, It's called being able to understand reality, knowing some history of what went on, and understanding Ukraine could never beat Russia, that is not supporting Russia, that is having a analytical mind, not believing what western government propaganda tells you to think. Calling me a racist because I support TR, that's embarrassing for you, he must be a really shit racist, as some of the founding members of the EDL were black, the real racists hate Tommy in reality. 

Hidden Image/Members Only

[WARSZAWA16]

Hidden Image/Members Only

[scutty brown]

Here we go again......that photo of Jerboa and Timmy's Gimp Squad
They must be really ashamed of something to dress like that

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[finn5555]

Here we go again......that photo of Jerboa and Timmy's Gimp Squad
They must be really ashamed of something to dress like that

Is he regurgitating the same bullshit as usual 

[Jerboa]

Is he regurgitating the same bullshit as usual 

It's Redkettle who attacked me for no reason, when he was agreeing with my post. 

[scutty brown]

good name for a rock and roll band:  Jerry Boa and the Gimps

[Vice Admiral]

To this the Vice Admiral would add the following personal message to Burnham:
_______________________

Dear Andy

First I must apologise for having frequently called you an upstart.  Now that you’re about to become Prime Minister, I can see that you have all the qualities a leader needs.  Rachel Reeves feels the same.

Now, here’s my advice.

For the next three years you will be the most powerful Prime Minister since Tony Blair.  You have a large majority, and no-one is going to try to get rid of you.  Even if you seduce the scullery maids at Downing Street.

So, shake off all the leftie nonsense.  Be bold and brave.  Do things so “right-wing” that only a Labour Prime Minister could get away with them.  OK, a lot of your wet-behind-the-ears MPs will grumble, but fuck ‘em.

You will have saved the country, and, who knows, you might even win the 2029 General Election.

Yours sincerely

Vice Admiral (your new No. 1 Fan)

In today’s Times, Patrick Maguire offers a variation on the same theme:

Welfare reform, as it was for Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, will probably be the defining test. Burnham is enthused by the Milburn review, and those around him, not least Louise Haigh, know the current settlement cannot survive until the end of this parliament untouched. If a new Labour prime minister with a majority this big cannot prove he can address the ever-rising cost of incapacity benefits and youth unemployment, the markets will look unkindly on everything else he proposes to do. Miliband’s supporters contend that a chancellor of the left is uniquely placed to make and win this case to flighty and sceptical backbenchers. Only Labour’s Nixon, they say, has a fighting chance of making it to China.

If Burnham is to achieve anything worthwhile in his time as Prime Minister, he has to talk left – if he must – but act right (in two senses).

[Charliehutton]

If Burnham is to achieve anything worthwhile in his time as Prime Minister, he has to talk left – if he must – but act right (in two senses).

I suspect he's likelier to talk left and act even leftier, which I doubt is a word, but you know what I mean. The only one with the genuine political will to 'act Right' is Farage.

[Blackpool Rock]

In today’s Times, Patrick Maguire offers a variation on the same theme:

Welfare reform, as it was for Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, will probably be the defining test. Burnham is enthused by the Milburn review, and those around him, not least Louise Haigh, know the current settlement cannot survive until the end of this parliament untouched. If a new Labour prime minister with a majority this big cannot prove he can address the ever-rising cost of incapacity benefits and youth unemployment, the markets will look unkindly on everything else he proposes to do. Miliband’s supporters contend that a chancellor of the left is uniquely placed to make and win this case to flighty and sceptical backbenchers. Only Labour’s Nixon, they say, has a fighting chance of making it to China.

If Burnham is to achieve anything worthwhile in his time as Prime Minister, he has to talk left – if he must – but act right (in two senses).

Basically Blair then 

[bigden40]

Basically Blair then 

The opposite surely?

Blair talked centre right, but governed left. 

[bigden40]

Rather surprised to hear the following out of Hillary Clinton's mouth …

Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza is actually a pathway to security for Israel, reconstruction for Gaza, and the possibility of self-determination for the Palestinians.

There are a lot of people who reject it because Trump did it, but it’s the only game in town. There’s nothing else.

I really believe if we took this 20-point plan… all of the 20 points, the whole approach... there is a glimmer of a possible path forward.

[RedKettle]

It's Redkettle who attacked me for no reason, when he was agreeing with my post. 

If you read back a couple of posts that is not a reasonable presentation of the exchange - you challenged and I answered.

There is plenty of evidence for all that I said, supporting Russia, hating this country and being racist, it is all here:

https://www.ukpunting.com/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=31

On Russia just to pick up your point in a post above it is not about you having a view on whether Ukraine can "win" - that is a valid although having read your arguments you have little to no real understanding on the situation.  What the issue is that I have is the way that you read from Putin's script on reasons for war, his persecution by the west etc etc etc.  You sound like a Russian propaganda bot.  Frankly it is a joke that you challenge me and others about our ability to rationally assess the situation when you swallow bullshit whole.

Hating this country seems to flow from how much you run down everything from WW2 onwards - as I said if you think it is so bad you can always go elsewhere, probably Russia as you love it so much.

On racist I am not going there as it will be against the rules to give the evidence, but it is all there in your posts.

I suggest we drop this now, we are never going to agree and this will just blow up.

[RedKettle]

Rather surprised to hear the following out of Hillary Clinton's mouth …

Yes that is a surprise.

Trouble is the Trump administration does not really do implementation - the hard yards of getting the detail agreed and in place.  So even if the 20 points are great nothing is likely to change.  Really hope I am wrong about that!

[RedKettle]

The opposite surely?

Blair talked centre right, but governed left.

Not sure that is right. I think it was more nuanced that left or right.  There was quite a lot of free market stuff and support for business that was more right but some of the social support, tax credits etc, was quite left.

To be fair that is probably where I am - I believe that we need a liberal free market economy to drive the economic growth, with some checks and balances but not the heavy hand of the state.  However on the social side the state is there as a safety net.   At the moment we are killing business and then looking surprised we do not have the money that we need - whilst at the same time we have built a welfare state that is over the top and costing far to much.  Ironically much if that was done by a Tory government but Labour have made it worse on the business side.

Somehow we need to give politicians the space to reduce spending and cut taxes. 

[Vice Admiral]

I suspect he's likelier to talk left and act even leftier, which I doubt is a word, but you know what I mean. The only one with the genuine political will to 'act Right' is Farage.

There is a widely-held view among political commentators that, except on immigration and some social issues, Reform UK is far from being a right-wing party.  It can't afford to be, because so many of its supporters are not very well-off people who previously voted Labour.

Google AI has this: "Reform UK combines culturally conservative and nativist policies with elements of economic left-wing populism, leading political scientists and commentators to heavily debate its ideological placement. While many analysts classify the party as 'far-right' due to its hardline stances on immigration and national identity, others argue its platform contains policies that appeal to traditionally left-leaning voters."

Those seeking a (fairly!) sensible, grown-up party of the right need look no further than the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch.

[Adoniron]

In today’s Times, Patrick Maguire offers a variation on the same theme:

Welfare reform, as it was for Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, will probably be the defining test. Burnham is enthused by the Milburn review, and those around him, not least Louise Haigh, know the current settlement cannot survive until the end of this parliament untouched. If a new Labour prime minister with a majority this big cannot prove he can address the ever-rising cost of incapacity benefits and youth unemployment, the markets will look unkindly on everything else he proposes to do. Miliband’s supporters contend that a chancellor of the left is uniquely placed to make and win this case to flighty and sceptical backbenchers. Only Labour’s Nixon, they say, has a fighting chance of making it to China.

Burnham will need to bring the sixth form politicians on the Labour back benches into line or he'll go the same way as Starmer. Many of those MPs, particularly some of the 2024 intake, are completely out of touch with the public mood on welfare reform and immigration.

[Charliehutton]

Those seeking a (fairly!) sensible, grown-up party of the right need look no further than the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch.

Well, VA, they got two percent of the vote in the recent by-election, which suggests a great many small-c conservatives have given up on them. It'll take more than a few impressive performances from the despatch box for her to bring them back.

[Vice Admiral]

Well, VA, they got two percent of the vote in the recent by-election, which suggests a great many small-c conservatives have given up on them. It'll take more than a few impressive performances from the despatch box for her to bring them back.

The Makerfield by-election was a two-horse race, and there were many reasons for those who might otherwise have voted Conservative to vote for Reform UK on this occasion.  However the Conservatives’ victory in the Aberdeen South by-election, although again an atypical seat, suggests they have life in them yet.

Yes, at the moment Reform undoubtedly still hold the advantage.  Here are the figures from the latest YouGov poll (21-22 June):
Reform UK: 25%
Conservatives: 20%
Labour: 18%
Greens: 15%
Lib Dems: 14%
Restore Britain: 3%
SNP: 3%
Plaid Cymru: 1%

It is, however, very unlikely that there will be a majority Reform UK government after the 2029 General Election – although God knows what kind of coalition will be cobbled together, and who will be Prime Minister.

[Vice Admiral]

The Makerfield by-election was a two-horse race, and there were many reasons for those who might otherwise have voted Conservative to vote for Reform UK on this occasion.  However the Conservatives’ victory in the Aberdeen South by-election, although again an atypical seat, suggests they have life in them yet.

Yes, at the moment Reform undoubtedly still hold the advantage.  Here are the figures from the latest YouGov poll (21-22 June):
Reform UK: 25%
Conservatives: 20%
Labour: 18%
Greens: 15%
Lib Dems: 14%
Restore Britain: 3%
SNP: 3%
Plaid Cymru: 1%

It is, however, very unlikely that there will be a majority Reform UK government after the 2029 General Election – although God knows what kind of coalition will be cobbled together, and who will be Prime Minister.

This is fascinating!

External Link/Members Only

The "Predicted Seats" column is the most relevant one.  It gives Reform UK 245 seats, 81 short of an overall majority.   The Tories are about the same as last time.  Labour are massacred, but this extrapolation was done at the end of May, before the usurper Burnham had won Makerfield.

[Blackpool Rock]

The opposite surely?

Blair talked centre right, but governed left.

Well either way Tories hate / hated Blair as he was the best PM they never had, AKA the nickname Tory Blair   

[Squire Haggard]

The "Predicted Seats" column is the most relevant one.  It gives Reform UK 245 seats, 81 short of an overall majority.   The Tories are about the same as last time.  Labour are massacred, but this extrapolation was done at the end of May, before the usurper Burnham had won Makerfield.

IMO, I think that its likely that Burnham's victory was a flash in the (toilet) pan. Perhaps they voted for the quickest way of getting Sir Wanker out.

Reform are still in the lead in the latest June 22nd poll. Burnham cant be stupid enough to hold a general election just now.  Hopefully he's not stupid enough to have the idiot ''net zero brain cells'' Millipede as Chancellor.

External Link/Members Only

[Blackpool Rock]

There is a widely-held view among political commentators that, except on immigration and some social issues, Reform UK is far from being a right-wing party.  It can't afford to be, because so many of its supporters are not very well-off people who previously voted Labour.

Google AI has this: "Reform UK combines culturally conservative and nativist policies with elements of economic left-wing populism, leading political scientists and commentators to heavily debate its ideological placement. While many analysts classify the party as 'far-right' due to its hardline stances on immigration and national identity, others argue its platform contains policies that appeal to traditionally left-leaning voters."

Those seeking a (fairly!) sensible, grown-up party of the right need look no further than the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch.

Might this be called National Socialism 
Wonder if it's been tried before and how it turned out 

The problem is that for the working class Reform voters who may not be better off if Reform get into power they are still likely to vote for them due to their hatred of foreigners being bigger than the love for their own country (Not that they'd admit it of course)
It's a proven fact that the cognitive ability of Leave voters was lower than average so just like Turkeys they are likely to carry on voting for Xmas and obviously blaming someone / anything / everything else for all the countries ills

The far right and indeed the far left have historically always garnered a lot of support and foot soldiers from the working class uneducated masses 

[Jerboa]

If you read back a couple of posts that is not a reasonable presentation of the exchange - you challenged and I answered.

There is plenty of evidence for all that I said, supporting Russia, hating this country and being racist, it is all here:

https://www.ukpunting.com/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=31

On Russia just to pick up your point in a post above it is not about you having a view on whether Ukraine can "win" - that is a valid although having read your arguments you have little to no real understanding on the situation.  What the issue is that I have is the way that you read from Putin's script on reasons for war, his persecution by the west etc etc etc.  You sound like a Russian propaganda bot.  Frankly it is a joke that you challenge me and others about our ability to rationally assess the situation when you swallow bullshit whole.

Hating this country seems to flow from how much you run down everything from WW2 onwards - as I said if you think it is so bad you can always go elsewhere, probably Russia as you love it so much.

On racist I am not going there as it will be against the rules to give the evidence, but it is all there in your posts.

I suggest we drop this now, we are never going to agree and this will just blow up.

Do you actually read back your post before you post it? You obviously have a bee in your bonnet about me, it's flattering, but you should probably not get so obsessed buddy. 

I don't know about the situation in Ukraine? I have only been following the situation since 2004, I have a good understanding of what went on, you can disagree with my point of view, but I have evidence for my points.

I don't hate my country, are you serious or just being a little troll? I have a right to criticise the way our country has been run by the globalists since 1945. Excuse my pessimism I was sent to a war by Blair on a pack of lies, where I saw comrades die, so I won't take fucking lectures from you fella!

You won't say anything regarding racism, because you have nothing, you are embarrassing, like one of those weird blue haired SUTR commies, who labels everyone a racist that they disagree with. Do better. 

[ulstersubbie]

Hidden Image/Members Only

 

[Vice Admiral]

Might this be called National Socialism 
Wonder if it's been tried before and how it turned out 

The problem is that for the working class Reform voters who may not be better off if Reform get into power they are still likely to vote for them due to their hatred of foreigners being bigger than the love for their own country (Not that they'd admit it of course)
It's a proven fact that the cognitive ability of Leave voters was lower than average so just like Turkeys they are likely to carry on voting for Xmas and obviously blaming someone / anything / everything else for all the countries ills

The far right and indeed the far left have historically always garnered a lot of support and foot soldiers from the working class uneducated masses 

An excellent post.  The sentence I've emboldened is particularly deftly put.  I tell my conspiracy theorist friend that a true patriot of right-wing inclinations would want to rebuild the Conservative party.  Reform UK is not a patriotic party.

Returning to Electoral Calculus’s end-of-May extrapolation for the 2029 General Election result.  My gut instinct, for what's its worth, is that when the time comes, Reform and the Greens will get rather fewer seats than Electoral Calculus currently predicts and Labour quite a lot more.  But, either way, a majority government by any one party looks very unlikely.  So there will be two coalition options:

1.  Reform and the Conservatives.  Which Kemi Badenoch has ruled out.

2.  An anti-Reform coalition consisting of Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and, erm, the Conservatives.  That’ll be one for the history books!

Those who love political instability are going to have a whale of a time in the summer of 2029...

[Zimbaman]

Do you actually read back your post before you post it?

You won't say anything regarding racism, because you have nothing, you are embarrassing, like one of those weird blue haired SUTR commies, who labels everyone a racist that they disagree with. Do better. 

You should maybe take your own advice and read your posts before posting 

[Jonestown]

Returning to Electoral Calculus’s end-of-May extrapolation for the 2029 General Election result.  My gut instinct, for what's its worth, is that when the time comes, Reform and the Greens will get rather fewer seats than Electoral Calculus currently predicts and Labour quite a lot more.  But, either way, a majority government by any one party looks very unlikely.  So there will be two coalition options:

1.  Reform and the Conservatives.  Which Kemi Badenoch has ruled out.

2.  An anti-Reform coalition consisting of Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and, erm, the Conservatives.  That’ll be one for the history books!

Those who love political instability are going to have a whale of a time in the summer of 2029...

No 2 looks like the only mathatical alternative to a Reform led coalition, alas its cohesion is unlikely to last long enough for our Andy to get to the palace to explain it to the King and seek his approval.

[RedKettle]

Do you actually read back your post before you post it? You obviously have a bee in your bonnet about me, it's flattering, but you should probably not get so obsessed buddy. 

I don't know about the situation in Ukraine? I have only been following the situation since 2004, I have a good understanding of what went on, you can disagree with my point of view, but I have evidence for my points.

I don't hate my country, are you serious or just being a little troll? I have a right to criticise the way our country has been run by the globalists since 1945. Excuse my pessimism I was sent to a war by Blair on a pack of lies, where I saw comrades die, so I won't take fucking lectures from you fella!

You won't say anything regarding racism, because you have nothing, you are embarrassing, like one of those weird blue haired SUTR commies, who labels everyone a racist that they disagree with. Do better. 

If you have served then you should hang your head in shame for your support of Russia. I have spoken to several very senior British officers, current and retired, in the last 6 months or so and they are all clear that Russia is a threat and that whilst we are not currently at war in the conventional sense we are under constant attack by various means. The general view is at at some point Russia will flex over more European territory.  On the positive side they believe Ukraine is doing well at the moment.

[scutty brown]

No 2 looks like the only mathatical alternative to a Reform led coalition, alas its cohesion is unlikely to last long enough for our Andy to get to the palace to explain it to the King and seek his approval.

Our Andy? ex-Prince Andy? I am confused

[bigden40]

An excellent post.  The sentence I've emboldened is particularly deftly put.  I tell my conspiracy theorist friend that a true patriot of right-wing inclinations would want to rebuild the Conservative party.  Reform UK is not a patriotic party.

Returning to Electoral Calculus’s end-of-May extrapolation for the 2029 General Election result.  My gut instinct, for what's its worth, is that when the time comes, Reform and the Greens will get rather fewer seats than Electoral Calculus currently predicts and Labour quite a lot more.  But, either way, a majority government by any one party looks very unlikely.  So there will be two coalition options:

1.  Reform and the Conservatives.  Which Kemi Badenoch has ruled out.

2.  An anti-Reform coalition consisting of Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and, erm, the Conservatives.  That’ll be one for the history books!

Those who love political instability are going to have a whale of a time in the summer of 2029...

Well, she would say that wouldn’t she, she’s not going to indicate support like that 3 years out from a GE, nor even in the GE Campaign.  But if the election actually turned out like that I’d imagine it’d be a different story. 

So either a Reform/Tory coalition, or at least a confidence and supply agreement for a minority Reform government.

[Jonestown]

Our Andy? ex-Prince Andy? I am confused

You’re clearly not a fan of Intel Lady.

[bigden40]

Our Andy? ex-Prince Andy? I am confused

Burnham presumably?  Although the Tories would be the second largest party so not sure why Burnham would lead the coalition.

[Jerboa]

If you have served then you should hang your head in shame for your support of Russia. I have spoken to several very senior British officers, current and retired, in the last 6 months or so and they are all clear that Russia is a threat and that whilst we are not currently at war in the conventional sense we are under constant attack by various means. The general view is at at some point Russia will flex over more European territory.  On the positive side they believe Ukraine is doing well at the moment.

Again I don't support Russia, Telling the truth is not support, it just means when reality hits, I won't look so silly. The whole conflict was provoked for the last 20 years. I would suggest your senior officers are to closely in the group think mentality. Russia is only a threat if the west keeps poking it. They are wrong to be positive about Ukraine, they are not doing well, hitting cities and oil storage tanks with drones made in Europe won't give victory. If Ukraine is doing so well, why is EU countries starting to remove refugee status for Ukrainian men? They want them to go back to fight.

Notice the BBC the other day finally mentioned Kostyantynivka, they have taken around 90% of the town already, it is one of the main fortress belt cities defending the conurbation of Kramatorsk & Slaviansk. To the NE Russia has taken most of the town of Lyman, this has been held by Ukraine since autumn of 2022, and has protected Slaviansk, if Russia can put artillery on the high ground there it's a short distance to Slaviansk.

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[Thephoenix]

Notice the BBC the other day finally mentioned Kostyantynivka, they have taken around 90% of the town already, it is one of the main fortress belt cities defending the conurbation of Kramatorsk & Slaviansk. To the NE Russia has taken most of the town of Lyman, this has been held by Ukraine since autumn of 2022, and has protected Slaviansk, if Russia can put artillery on the high ground there it's a short distance to Slaviansk.

...and then what?

[Charliehutton]

Might this be called National Socialism 
Wonder if it's been tried before and how it turned out 

Oh, behave yourself, Rocky.

[Jerboa]

...and then what?

And then Russia takes the conurbation and the last major Ukrainian held settlements in the Donbass, the civil war started in Slaviansk in 2014, go and look at a map, once Slaviansk/Kramatorsk is taken there is no natural defence line for Ukraine, until the river Dnieper.

[Thephoenix]

And then Russia takes the conurbation and the last major Ukrainian held settlements in the Donbass, the civil war started in Slaviansk in 2014, go and look at a map, once Slaviansk/Kramatorsk is taken there is no natural defence line for Ukraine, until the river Dnieper.

So then what?