Author Topic: London house prices and commuting into London  (Read 9280 times)

Offline Cactus

100% true. I have first hand experience of the fact that there is no benefit to the "wait and see" approach and in fact it has ended up doing me quite a bit of damage. By my mid 20s I probably had enough saved up to buy a 1 bed flat in Zone 4. Now in my mid 30s, my net worth would probably have been 2-3 times more than it is. The chance of property prices diving in London and the surrounding areas is minimal. I always advise younger people to find a way onto the market and then build from there.

Similar situation myself, albeit not in London. I wish I screwed the nut and started on the property ladder far earlier when I started earning and property was cheap. Eventually got on in my late 20s, bought and sold a couple of places and now find myself in a fairly average property in a nice part of Edinburgh. Stick here for a few years then see what’s next, always keep an eye on the market though ready to move if opportunities arise.

Offline David1970

London still the highest house prices but one of the lowest price growth rates in 2020

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Offline Kinkylondongent

I last moved 8 years ago and the rise in property prices now mean I wouldn't be able to get a mortgage on my flat  if I was buying it now . A 1 bed new build flat in canning town now goes for half a million !

Offline SamOmar

I last moved 8 years ago and the rise in property prices now mean I wouldn't be able to get a mortgage on my flat  if I was buying it now . A 1 bed new build flat in canning town now goes for half a million !

I don't ever intend to a property owner in the UK. Tenants can get away with not paying you. Too many other upkeep charges and a huge mortgage responsibility for me who is someone that is always in and out of different jobs and at times unable to work due to health. I'm more happy paying rent and living in a nice safe and convenient location.
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Offline Squire Haggard

I agree with Andrew Neil's article below. There will be less people needing to work in London. Maybe less upward pressure on London house prices as a result?

''Schroders, a UK asset management company, says it does not ever expect to return to five days a week in the office.

Stripe, an American online payments processor, is offering workers $20,000 to move out of its expensive offices in New York and San Francisco.

But an even more fundamental change is already afoot. If you can work from home 10, 20 or 30 miles from your old office, why not 100, 200 or 300 miles?

Instead of working from an expensive and cramped flat in a big city, why not move to a pleasant market town (such as Macclesfield, Harrogate or Perth) where you’d be able to afford a house, with a garden and a proper home office? Where state schools are better and costs generally lower. And transport good for the odd trip back to the main office.''

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Offline Eggbert

TBH I think more people in London were already part WFH than not at all. I haven't done a 5 day week in the office for a couple of years. But there is absolutely no doubt it's going to be bigger than before. I saw an interview with the CEO of law firm Norton Rose Fulbright where he mentioned they'd already committed to reducing their office space by 25%.

I saw an estimate that London's population is currently 700,000 lower than before the pandemic. Not really surprisingly when you consider hospitality/retail are closed and a lot of office workers have gone back to be with family whether that be in other parts of the UK or abroad. Rents in zone 1 and 2 must have come down.

But I only see this as a temporary thing. People will flock back to London eventually. You of course will find the odd bargain, but my guess is that London property prices will stagnate during this period more than anything.

Offline Eggbert

One other thing is the value of looking at prices by London borough rather than London as a whole. While you might see prices in Kensington go down 10% because a luxury flat will only fetch 4.5mil rather than the 5mil it would have, property prices in Newham might have gone up 10% because that house that would have gone for 500k will now fetch 550k. Growth can often be dramatically different between boroughs.

Offline MilleMiglia

I last moved 8 years ago and the rise in property prices now mean I wouldn't be able to get a mortgage on my flat  if I was buying it now . A 1 bed new build flat in canning town now goes for half a million !

The one that made me laugh was when David Cameron became PM, and moved into No 10. He put his own place up for rent, for a sum that he himself couldn't afford.

Offline lillythesavage

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London still the highest house prices but one of the lowest price growth rates in 2020

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The rental market is taking a big hit, talking to a friend this evening who used to use air bnb, to rent out a 1.3 million town house In Camden Town for 2000 a month, little more than my Son is paying for riverside flat in the home counties, had his wife not been working from home and will be for the foreseeable they would have jumped on it.
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Offline suttonporksword

What irony..you plan to buy to let elsewhere effectively imposing the same issues on residents of another area. Buy yo let is a contributory factor to stupid house prices so the fewer people who do this to line their own pockets the more.potential market is available to the likes of the OP

Offline Payyourwaymate

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What irony..you plan to buy to let elsewhere effectively imposing the same issues on residents of another area. Buy yo let is a contributory factor to stupid house prices so the fewer people who do this to line their own pockets the more.potential market is available to the likes of the OP

I hear you. I did not have any interest in BTL before because of what you mentioned, and I'm still aprehensive of it slightly. I did not think it's fair to take housing and deny others access to the chance to get housing. However, at this point, it's like why not?  Others are doing it and getting rich of other peoples backs and to sit around and play fair justice will not help ones pockets. What is one to do?

To be fair it's not completely BTL from the average landlord that has caused the house price rises in the SE region and London. If you go back it's the QE that took place back in the last recession combined with low interests rates with banks eagerness to lend cheap money on secured borrowing as it's one of the safest forms of lending. At the surface level, you can reposses a house and sell it and get your money back if the person cannot pay the mortgage, rather than lend to a business which is actually contributing towards the real economy where if that goes busto you lose your money which you lent to them as it would more likely to be unsecured lending. This is at a basic level, I'm ignoring more complex situations where security can be put up, guarantors etc. It's a no brainer to the banks, it's part of the reason they promote mortgages so much, easy money.  Add in rich foreign investors looking for returns in a city with "highly paid working professionals", high demand and low supply of housing in london and great capital growth due to asset price inflation over the last decade and you get a horrible mess of unaffordable house prices in london. This is pre-pandemic of course.  Now, I have no idea what will happen.

Up north you can get a house for less than 100K in areas like durham when I checked. Up in birmingham, liverpool, manchester you could get one under 200k. With the first time buyer 5% deposit if I remember correctly, for the 200K house that's like what 10K deposit? Add in surveyor, lawyer fees and other admin about 15-20K could cover it no? That's deffo doable...well, if you get paid london wages or have a good job and can save for a couple years diligently scrapping everything else or have the bank of mum and dad. If you put in a 10-20% deposit thats between 20-40K, plus fees then bump it max to close to 50K which is a lot harder to do but can still be done through extreme actions and frugality or again the bank of mum and dad. That in itself brings up another issue of whether it's worth making all that sacrifice to save up a large amount of money at the expensive of ones "quality of life". The main problem however, is that if one is living paycheck to paycheck and struggling to save for an emergency fund or savings in general; how will one even begin to think about saving for their first home? Those groups of people are completely excluded from the "property ladder" entirely.

I think if london was not one of the financial hubs of the world, many people would have no interest in living in london or commute to london for work. It's where all the high paying jobs happen to be. Unless you work in a specific role that's remote like a software engineer or are a high earner in a "non-traditional office job", I just do not see where else people can find a high paying office job roles outside of london. Even then other forms of employment still go towards major cities like london for money. 

It's very ironic indeed. I'll agree with you there.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2021, 06:51:45 pm by Payyourwaymate »

Offline lamboman

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The one that made me laugh was when David Cameron became PM, and moved into No 10. He put his own place up for rent, for a sum that he himself couldn't afford.

That is somewhat hard to believe in fact it's rubbish.
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Offline MilleMiglia

Going back to the early 90's, my then girlfriend had a very well paid job, as the PA to a partner in a big name firm of London solicitors. She was, however, fed up with the commute on the Bed-Pan line, and so made enquiries with other firms, closer to home. The idea was soon shelved, as she was told that she could expect about half her current wage in London (the loss in wages massively outweighed the saving on the season ticket). 

Offline MilleMiglia

That is somewhat hard to believe in fact it's rubbish.

Not at all. It's an example of a very common story, heard all over London and the Home Counties/south east on account of the massive HPI of the last 20 or so years. My normal response to those that ridicule the young for being unable to afford a place of their own is "Could you afford to buy NOW the house that you bought when you were younger?", which invariably gets a reply in the negative. It says it all that, since prices took off at the end of the 90's, house prices in Hackney have increased by over 900% (and I heard this a little while back).
« Last Edit: February 21, 2021, 07:18:49 pm by MilleMiglia »

Offline lamboman

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Not at all. It's an example of a very common story, heard all over London and the Home Counties/south east on account of the massive HPI of the last 20 or so years. My normal response to those that ridicule the young for being unable to afford a place of their own is "Could you afford to buy NOW the house that you bought when you were younger?", which invariably gets a reply in the negative. It says it all that, since prices took off at the end of the 90's, house prices in Hackney have increased by over 900% (and I heard this a little while back).

So you are seriously saying somebody with a net worth of may be £30or40M cannot afford to rent back the house they have that is ridiculous to be frank.
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Offline MilleMiglia

So you are seriously saying somebody with a net worth of may be £30or40M cannot afford to rent back the house they have that is ridiculous to be frank.

When he took office, his salary at the time was a little under £200K. See how far that gets you in a desirable area.

Offline Markus


It’s not only the financial hub of the world but also where a lot of the biggest law firms (3% of UK GDP) marketing, talent agencies, architectural firms etc have their main offices or hubs.  The fact that London is also serviced by so many airports as well as the Eurostar line means you can get in to London very quickly from other parts of Europe and the world.

There will be a greater number of firms moving their offices out of London to save on cost but as HSBC found when they moved their main hub to Birmingham, they will have to offer cash incentives or moving costs in order to make it more attractive.   

Offline David1970

It’s not only the financial hub of the world but also where a lot of the biggest law firms (3% of UK GDP) marketing, talent agencies, architectural firms etc have their main offices or hubs.  The fact that London is also serviced by so many airports as well as the Eurostar line means you can get in to London very quickly from other parts of Europe and the world.

There will be a greater number of firms moving their offices out of London to save on cost but as HSBC found when they moved their main hub to Birmingham, they will have to offer cash incentives or moving costs in order to make it more attractive.

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Companies are moving out of London to the EU, the attached article is about Amsterdam becoming a bigger financial hub. The last time I was in Frankfurt they were building lots of offices and apartments, I was told all the build was for the financial jobs that would be coming from London. This loss of well paid jobs should bring down the cost of housing in London, but it will not due to foreign investment in the London housing market that will shortly increase.

Offline Jonestown

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There will be a greater number of firms moving their offices out of London to save on cost but as HSBC found when they moved their main hub to Birmingham, they will have to offer cash incentives or moving costs in order to make it more attractive.

From the point of view of the staff, if they move out of London for a single employer that are in all probability screwed as far as ever being able to move back in again, should they need to.

Offline anotherwoody69

Pal of mine owns a very small hedge fund type of business, only has around a dozen staff and he makes a good living but not the bonkers money some do.
He has closed his Mayfair office pretty much all of last year and now wants it permanently gone. I think it was costing him around £20k a quarter.

They have worked out they can operate from home and have meetings and suchlike in London when needed, he's joined a couple of business clubs with good meeting rooms, in house restaurants etc. Annual membership is less than a quarters rent on the office.

One of the biggest upsides he said was that his staff could choose to live where they wanted, rather than a daily commute into London radius and over the past few months half of the people have sold up or quit rented property and moved 2 hours plus from London. They will travel in maybe one day a week.

I know he's not the only business doing this, the press always carry coverage of big firms and by their nature the numbers involved are large, but its the smaller end like my pals company that are really seeing the shift away from London.

Add into this the shared renters who work in things like retail (one of my daughters friends, six of them share a house in Clapham and four have gone away as they lost their retail/hospitality jobs) and I think you will start to see much more London rental property come to market. Not all of that will get rented quickly, it will take time, so rent prices should drop off.
Landlords with mortgages then run into issues, lower rents maybe not covering the mortgage, and perhaps they may decide to sell up and switch to property in the regions.

You'll never stop the flood of foreign money, some of it simply looking for somewhere to park itself (see the streets at night and the amount of dark flats and houses) or to see returns by renting, but this is not all of the money there is a lot of domestic.
And, as we know, once the market starts to run in any direction it can be a while and difficult to turn it round.

Personally I really do hope London prices, in fact UK prices, get a reality jolt. This may of course only occur when, or if, interest rates rise again.
But for any youngster looking to get on in the world who has a central London job to be asked to pay £500k plus for a shitty flat is bonkers....even on good wages for a mid twenty year old thats what, ten times earnings? Mad. 


Online Kev40ish

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Pal of mine owns a very small hedge fund type of business, only has around a dozen staff and he makes a good living but not the bonkers money some do.
He has closed his Mayfair office pretty much all of last year and now wants it permanently gone. I think it was costing him around £20k a quarter.

They have worked out they can operate from home and have meetings and suchlike in London when needed, he's joined a couple of business clubs with good meeting rooms, in house restaurants etc. Annual membership is less than a quarters rent on the office.

One of the biggest upsides he said was that his staff could choose to live where they wanted, rather than a daily commute into London radius and over the past few months half of the people have sold up or quit rented property and moved 2 hours plus from London. They will travel in maybe one day a week.

I know he's not the only business doing this, the press always carry coverage of big firms and by their nature the numbers involved are large, but its the smaller end like my pals company that are really seeing the shift away from London.

Add into this the shared renters who work in things like retail (one of my daughters friends, six of them share a house in Clapham and four have gone away as they lost their retail/hospitality jobs) and I think you will start to see much more London rental property come to market. Not all of that will get rented quickly, it will take time, so rent prices should drop off.
Landlords with mortgages then run into issues, lower rents maybe not covering the mortgage, and perhaps they may decide to sell up and switch to property in the regions.

You'll never stop the flood of foreign money, some of it simply looking for somewhere to park itself (see the streets at night and the amount of dark flats and houses) or to see returns by renting, but this is not all of the money there is a lot of domestic.
And, as we know, once the market starts to run in any direction it can be a while and difficult to turn it round.

Personally I really do hope London prices, in fact UK prices, get a reality jolt. This may of course only occur when, or if, interest rates rise again.
But for any youngster looking to get on in the world who has a central London job to be asked to pay £500k plus for a shitty flat is bonkers....even on good wages for a mid twenty year old thats what, ten times earnings? Mad.

Very good post and pretty sums up my thoughts.
I have not renewed my lease for offices in Canary Wharf. My employees can work from home going forward. I have kept open my offices in Birmingham it’s not such a drain and gives us somewhere to meet.

If I have meetings going forward I will just rent meeting rooms. It certainly has changed the ways I run my business.

My Daughter is an accountant and they have done something similar with their offices in town.

I have sold my flats in Canary Wharf, as I don’t need them anymore. International investors were moving out of the market anyway..

Will London still be able to retain its costs I don’t really think so going forward, no matter what people are saying..

Offline king tarzan

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Watched programme the other night..
Shared purchase from housing association is rip off..
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Offline Payyourwaymate

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I think this passages sums up the housing market:

The Rentier Squeeze on Budgets: Debt Deflation as a Byproduct of Asset-Price Inflation

"Democratization of home ownership meant that housing no longer was owned primarily by absentee owners extracting rent, but by owner-occupants. As home ownership spread, new buyers came to support the rentier drives to block land taxation – not realizing that rent that was not taxed would be paid to the banks as interest to absorb the rent-of-location hitherto paid to absentee landlords.

Real estate has risen in price as a result of debt leveraging. The process makes investors, speculators and their bankers wealthy, but raises the cost of housing (and commercial property) for new buyers, who are obliged to take on more debt in order to obtain secure housing. That cost is also passed on to renters. And employers ultimately are obliged to pay their labor force enough to pay these financialized housing costs.

Debt deflation has become the distinguishing feature of today’s economies from North America to Europe, imposing austerity as debt service absorbs a rising share of personal and corporate income, leaving less to spend on goods and services. The economy’s indebted 90 percent find themselves obliged to pay more and more interest and financial fees. The corporate sector, and now also the state and local government sector, likewise are obliged to pay a rising share of their revenue to creditors.

Investors are willing to pay most of their rental income as interest to the banking sector because they hope to sell their property at some point for a “capital” gain. Modern finance capitalism focuses on “total returns,” defined as current income plus asset-price gains, above all for land and real estate. Inasmuch as a home or other property is worth however much banks will lend against it, wealth is created primarily by financial means, by banks lending a rising proportion of the value of assets pledged as collateral.

The fact that asset-price gains are largely debt-financed explains why economic growth is slowing in the United States and Europe, even as stock market and real estate prices are inflated on credit. The result is a debt-leveraged economy.

Changes in the value of the economy’s land from year to year far exceeds the change in GDP. Wealth is obtained primarily by asset-price (“capital”) gains in the valuation of land and real estate, stocks, bonds and creditor loans (“virtual wealth”), not so much by saving income (wages, profits and rents). The magnitude of these asset-price gains tends to dwarf profits, rental income and wages.

The tendency has been to imagine that rising prices for real estate, stocks and bonds has been making homeowners richer. But this price rise is fueled by bank credit. A home or other property is worth however much a bank will lend against it – and banks have lent a larger and larger proportion of the home’s value since 1945. For U.S. real estate as a whole, debt has come to exceed equity for more than a decade now. Rising real estate prices have made banks and speculators rich, but have left homeowners and commercial real estate debt strapped.

The economy as a whole has suffered. Debt-fueled housing costs in the United States are so high that if all Americans were given their physical consumer goods for free – their food, clothing and so forth – they still could not compete with workers in China or most other countries. That is a major reason why the U.S. economy is de-industrializing. So this policy of “creating wealth” by financialization undercuts the logic of industrial capitalism."

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Offline PunterNumber69

The UK government needs to stop proping up the UK housing market. They are just making the bubble larger and the property developers richer. In days gone by a financial crash or a global pandemic would have caused a dip in house prices. In the pandemic house prices have actually risen. It has become a one way bet with prices only going up and that can't be a good thing for Britain as a nation.

Offline Chorley

The UK government needs to stop proping up the UK housing market. They are just making the bubble larger and the property developers richer. In days gone by a financial crash or a global pandemic would have caused a dip in house prices. In the pandemic house prices have actually risen. It has become a one way bet with prices only going up and that can't be a good thing for Britain as a nation.
I doubt the government or most politicians give a shit to be honest.  :unknown:
They're most likely profiting from it anyway as landlords, or as part-time directors or consultants for developers. It'll be ordinary folks like you and I who'll be fucked over like we always are. :thumbsdown:
« Last Edit: March 22, 2021, 07:58:46 pm by Chorley »

Offline Malvolio

The UK government needs to stop proping up the UK housing market. They are just making the bubble larger and the property developers richer. In days gone by a financial crash or a global pandemic would have caused a dip in house prices. In the pandemic house prices have actually risen. It has become a one way bet with prices only going up and that can't be a good thing for Britain as a nation.

Give it a year and see what happens.

Offline l4at

The UK government needs to stop proping up the UK housing market. They are just making the bubble larger and the property developers richer. In days gone by a financial crash or a global pandemic would have caused a dip in house prices. In the pandemic house prices have actually risen. It has become a one way bet with prices only going up and that can't be a good thing for Britain as a nation.

Agreed, the bigger the bubble, the harder it pops. The next few years could be ugly for anyone that has recently bought.

Offline Payyourwaymate

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It looks like the problem of rising house prices impacting locals is spreading outside of london now  :dash:.

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"‘I’m praying the market might crash’: Young people in the UK’s rural hotspots feel priced out. The pandemic inspired some people to leave cities for a more spacious rural life – but what was the impact on young adults living in popular regions?"

Offline lillythesavage

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It looks like the problem of rising house prices impacting locals is spreading outside of london now  :dash:.

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"‘I’m praying the market might crash’: Young people in the UK’s rural hotspots feel priced out. The pandemic inspired some people to leave cities for a more spacious rural life – but what was the impact on young adults living in popular regions?"


Spreading Nationwide, some areas have massive growth, my mate took a 66% profit on a house in Basildon with a felt roof, in less than 3 years and he needed to sell quick.

Other areas are having a boom. London is slow growth now, so many been told they will be working from home in the future with infrequent office visits, they can move anywhere within easy access of airport or train.
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Offline southcoastpunter

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The other issue for London will be - if so many people are going to be working from home all or at least some of the time, companies will not need so much office space and (say) half of office space in london could become un-occupied. A change of use to apartments could help to provide more housing and help stop or slow price increases.

Offline lillythesavage

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The other issue for London will be - if so many people are going to be working from home all or at least some of the time, companies will not need so much office space and (say) half of office space in london could become un-occupied. A change of use to apartments could help to provide more housing and help stop or slow price increases.


Growth will slow or stagnate in London for some time, the demand has lowered, but those waiting for a crash could be waiting a while, the developers are still snapping up land and throwing up flats, albeit for rental or part ownership and buyers/renters are filling them. When land starts sitting empty then you know a crash is coming.

Developers are cutting out the landlord/investor and building to rent direct, 2 equal size bedrooms with 2 bathrooms, purpose built for sharing, have been for some years.
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Online Trenlover


Growth will slow or stagnate in London for some time, the demand has lowered, but those waiting for a crash could be waiting a while, the developers are still snapping up land and throwing up flats, albeit for rental or part ownership and buyers/renters are filling them. When land starts sitting empty then you know a crash is coming.

Developers are cutting out the landlord/investor and building to rent direct, 2 equal size bedrooms with 2 bathrooms, purpose built for sharing, have been for some years.

ive seen more and more blocks of flats going up were previously there might of been houses.

New build flats are untouchable with their £250 a year increasing ground rent and £3000+ service charges. Im still thinking freehold houses around london are a goldmine waiting to explode further.

If theres a property crash it will come from leasehold flats, not freehold houses

Offline lillythesavage

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ive seen more and more blocks of flats going up were previously there might of been houses.

New build flats are untouchable with their £250 a year increasing ground rent and £3000+ service charges. Im still thinking freehold houses around london are a goldmine waiting to explode further.

If theres a property crash it will come from leasehold flats, not freehold houses

It is not that way at the moment, if you are right there are relative bargains to be had, my son thought about selling his East London place and it was valued at 150k less than the nearest new build 2 bed flat.

2 double bed, both large enough, terraced house, front and rear gardens, large conservatory, massive kitchen and nowhere near the value of a 2 bed box in the air.
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Offline Pillowtalk


Growth will slow or stagnate in London for some time,

Maybe, but even from my business which is not related to property I can see there is still a huge amount of Indian, Chinese (particularly HK) money coming into London and a lot of it is going into residential property. HK investors are preparing for when they have to leave HK, there is lorry loads of Chinese wealth looking for homes. Recently I've been working with Indian businesses seeking to open offices in London and moving some staff in too.

Offline l4at

ive seen more and more blocks of flats going up were previously there might of been houses.

New build flats are untouchable with their £250 a year increasing ground rent and £3000+ service charges. Im still thinking freehold houses around london are a goldmine waiting to explode further.

If theres a property crash it will come from leasehold flats, not freehold houses

Yep, I think flats will be hit the hardest. Leaseholds reputation is getting worse due to the greedy freeholders and the penny is dropping.

It’ll affect the rest of the prices for housing as people owning flats prices drop, it should affect the higher rungs on the ladder.

Offline heisenberg.

I'm not sure if there is anyone sharing a similar concern as I do, as I understand the main demographic of this site are men not in their 20s or early 30s; however, I just wanted to know if anyone is having or seeing the same issues which I am seeing.

I have been priced out of buying a house in my local area/getting a mortgage due to the exponential growth in houses prices in london and in particular, my local area. See, I happen to live in a trendy area where the house prices over the last 10 years have gone through a bit of growth and now if I want to get a living place there I would effectively have to be rich or earn 100K a year at least, which neither I am, at the present time. The funniest thing about this all is that with the money I have now, if I had it over 10 years ago, I would have been able to afford to get a place in the area I live in, infact the places similar to where I live beforehand were going for about £250-300K for a 3bed, now...it's closer to 700K  :dash:. I was back in uni then and had no money to do anything before anyone says why did I not buy then. It's a right pain to move to the outskirts of london and get a place just to commute back into london to work, it just does not make sense to me at all, I have no interest in living in those areas.

Now I'm left with the options of finding a way of increasing my income exponentially to be able to get a place in my area or move out of the area to the outskirts, which I would rather not (moving out to the outskirts that is, I've already been racking my brain on how to increase my income). To be honest, I think I'm going to use the money and become a BTL landlord of places in the north of the UK instead at this rate or join a social housing waitlist and wait for 7 years or more to get a place.

Are there any others around my age range facing the same issue of being priced out of their local areas?

Are there people that have previously been priced out of their areas and had to move out of their preferred area, in order to get a property they could say belongs to them? What was it like?

For those that commute into London to work but do not live in central london, how do you manage your time and not get tired?

I wonder what will happen as the rise of house prices continue to increase in south east and London. It's almost like a lose-lose situation if you don't have rich parents, get a place on the outskirts in some dead area and commute into london for £££££, or rent privately and pay a BTL landords mortgage whilst contributing to their returns.

How do people deal with living on the outskirts of the city and commuting into work? I've seen them on the train and work with them and it seems like a right bother...they look miserable and are always tired. There's a chance I may join the ranks if I cannot increase my income exponentially. I need to prepare myself mentally from now for the potential scenario arising  :lol:.

I'm around your age. Move out.

You need to start building assets now or forever be fecked when you're older. It's really that simple, you need to manage your outgoing costs and build up multiple sustainable/passive income streams that will cover your expenditure and provide a safety net of cash.

You need cash to make more cash. That being said, cash is not king due to inflation. With said cash you need to invest it in order to beat yearly inflation rise. If you're a wage earner with no assets this will only make purchasing a house for example more difficult.

A good starting approach would be to invest in assets such as the good companies on the stock market or REITS

If you've got at least a small 5 figure kitty to play with, I would suggest buying the best online courses in stock investment from reputable teachers. People who take the Peter Lynch/Warren Buffet approach. Not get rich attention seeker youtube channels on crypto etc.

You can of course learn it all for free, but a structured approach in anything you do in life (investing, housing, online start-ups etc) you will always gain a head start by learning in a sequential approach rather than going in circles faffing around on youtube for example.

Or you can cut it short and dollar cost average into the S&P 500 every month. Average return for the past 10 years has been about 13%. This will beat any BTL scheme.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2021, 12:04:26 am by heisenberg. »

Offline Pillowtalk

Yep, I think flats will be hit the hardest. Leaseholds reputation is getting worse due to the greedy freeholders and the penny is dropping.

It’ll affect the rest of the prices for housing as people owning flats prices drop, it should affect the higher rungs on the ladder.

Again, I'm not convinced - there is still a huge shortage of homes around the country and its important that property has TWO prices - the headline/ticket price but also the price of mortgages which is related to interested rates. The ticket price is high at the moment, the 'real' price is low. For example, the borrowing £200k now will have lower repayments than I had on £70k 20 years ago i.e. property prices are not as expensive as popularly thought. Interest rate changes are the key.

Offline Payyourwaymate

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I'm around your age. Move out.

You need to start building assets now or forever be fecked when you're older. It's really that simple, you need to manage your outgoing costs and build up multiple sustainable/passive income streams that will cover your expenditure and provide a safety net of cash.

You need cash to make more cash. That being said, cash is not king due to inflation. With said cash you need to invest it in order to beat yearly inflation rise. If you're a wage earner with no assets this will only make purchasing a house for example more difficult.

A good starting approach would be to invest in assets such as the good companies on the stock market or REITS

If you've got at least a small 5 figure kitty to play with, I would suggest buying the best online courses in stock investment from reputable teachers. People who take the Peter Lynch/Warren Buffet approach. Not get rich attention seeker youtube channels on crypto etc.

You can of course learn it all for free, but a structured approach in anything you do in life (investing, housing, online start-ups etc) you will always gain a head start by learning in a sequential approach rather than going in circles faffing around on youtube for example.

Or you can cut it short and dollar cost average into the S&P 500 every month. Average return for the past 10 years has been about 13%. This will beat any BTL scheme.

I see, thanks. Truth be told I learnt about investing around 18 when I started Uni. I was saving and putting money in stocks index tracker funds since then. I no longer have money in the stock market anymore because I realised the main problem is not saving or investing...the elephant in the room is how to increase your income as fast as possible to a significant amount. Saving and investing for such a long time only to use all the funds on the house would almost take me back to ground zero. With a large income it's much easier to save invest and take risks as one could quickly replace the lost funds if anything went wrong. With significant savings/investments but a weak cash flow due to a lower income it would be much harder to take risks in investments which otherwise have a much larger reward/risk factor. I think there would also be a larger element of fear of seeing the money that you have taken so long to amass go into thin air if anything went wrong. Any losses would take a lot longer to replenish.

I've said before I have come across people that have made lifetime incomes in a short period of time, literally wiping years of work away, those were poker players though, very risky endeavour where most fail and there is a heavy survivorship bias around it. There just is not alot of paths to high income streams. I do not like the idea of working for decades when there are other ways to compress all of that financial earning power in a shorter amount of time. The problem is how to pull it off, it's not easy unfortunately. I would say before about a year ago I had in savings and "investments" more than 75K so i'm not concerned about how to invest. The problem is income really. I was interested in BTL because of the capital gains returns, not rental. BTL is a monster of it's own so I may end up avoiding it. In terms of putting money in stocks lets say one puts 500 a month over a year which is 6K, lets say over a time period of 10 years that's 60K, add lets say an 10% return on it excluding compounding that is around 66K I think, that amount can't even get you a supercar lol. I don't think that amount can even pay for long term private healthcare you know. Let's say over a 30 year time period you put in 1000 a month to 12k yearly, 30 years excluding compounding returns would be 360K one would have saved. Add in a 10% return excluding compounding and that would take you just over 400k right? Still not enough to get a house in london. One key observation you may have noticed I have ignored is factoring in market price drops or crashes, this extrapolation I have done is extremely vacuum like and not realistic, the amount could be far more or less as nothing is certain. Also, would I still even be alive in 30 years? I don't know, I would like to be but you never know. The problem is how to attain those sort of funds without giving your life time in exchange.

If I wanted to put a deposit down anywhere else but london like up north, manchester etc it's no problem. The issue was that I wanted to live in London and I would effectively have to become rich if I wanted to buy in my area. It's a first world problem to be honest. Much more pressing matters at hand I guess. Thank you for your response. 

Offline Payyourwaymate

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Spreading Nationwide, some areas have massive growth, my mate took a 66% profit on a house in Basildon with a felt roof, in less than 3 years and he needed to sell quick.

Other areas are having a boom. London is slow growth now, so many been told they will be working from home in the future with infrequent office visits, they can move anywhere within easy access of airport or train.

I see. It's not going to be pretty for areas outside of london and the population there as their salaries are lower in general, salaries are also not increasing in line with property prices in % terms.

Offline southcoastpunter

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Again, I'm not convinced - there is still a huge shortage of homes around the country and its important that property has TWO prices - the headline/ticket price but also the price of mortgages which is related to interested rates. The ticket price is high at the moment, the 'real' price is low. For example, the borrowing £200k now will have lower repayments than I had on £70k 20 years ago i.e. property prices are not as expensive as popularly thought. Interest rate changes are the key.

I'm not convinced either - about a property price crash whether its flats in London or anywhere else. Yes maybe some slowing of growth or even a small downturn for a short while but not a "crash".

The last property crash we had was in the 1990's when property prices dropped about 25-30% for 3 or 4 years but this was linked to the economy and unemployment. But even then, by the later 90's we had property price boom again. Whilst there is so much more demand than supply, prices will stay high and continue in an upwards direction.

Offline sparkus

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I see. It's not going to be pretty for areas outside of london and the population there as their salaries are lower in general, salaries are also not increasing in line with property prices in % terms.

The government are entirely comfortable with this, there's a reason why it's happening and in particular since 2010.

Offline southcoastpunter

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The government are entirely comfortable with this, there's a reason why it's happening and in particular since 2010.

that sounds like a political statement to me! (thought it wasn't allowed in off topic)

Offline PunterNumber69

I'm not convinced either - about a property price crash whether its flats in London or anywhere else. Yes maybe some slowing of growth or even a small downturn for a short while but not a "crash".

The last property crash we had was in the 1990's when property prices dropped about 25-30% for 3 or 4 years but this was linked to the economy and unemployment. But even then, by the later 90's we had property price boom again. Whilst there is so much more demand than supply, prices will stay high and continue in an upwards direction.
The demand is there because of low interest rates/cheap money, so people are taking out big mortgages to buy the expensive houses. If interest rates rise, which they do seem to be starting to do a tiny bit, then the money won't be there to support the ever more expensive houses and there will be drop in demand.  It will be interestijg to see what happens when the furlough scheme comes to an end.  Some companies may have decided that they don't need some of their staff as they functioned ok during the panademic with fewer staff    and taxes will rise over the next 2 years to pay for COVID.

Offline southcoastpunter

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The demand is there because of low interest rates/cheap money, so people are taking out big mortgages to buy the expensive houses. If interest rates rise, which they do seem to be starting to do a tiny bit, then the money won't be there to support the ever more expensive houses and there will be drop in demand.  It will be interestijg to see what happens when the furlough scheme comes to an end.  Some companies may have decided that they don't need some of their staff as they functioned ok during the panademic with fewer staff    and taxes will rise over the next 2 years to pay for COVID.

don't disagree with any of that - except that there maybe a drop in demand. A drop in potential buyers being able to afford it yes, which may lead to slowing of demand but some how people/organisations seem to find ways around it!

Oh and i think taxes will need to rise for a long time to pay for covid - and the build up of student debt that will be unpaid and interest on the national debt and pensions etc. Our national finances are going to be in a mess for a long time (due to governments of both colours*) but that is another discussion!

( * i honestly believe that but stated because I am trying to be non political)

Offline PunterNumber69

don't disagree with any of that - except that there maybe a drop in demand. A drop in potential buyers being able to afford it yes, which may lead to slowing of demand but some how people/organisations seem to find ways around it!

Oh and i think taxes will need to rise for a long time to pay for covid - and the build up of student debt that will be unpaid and interest on the national debt and pensions etc. Our national finances are going to be in a mess for a long time (due to governments of both colours*) but that is another discussion!

( * i honestly believe that but stated because I am trying to be non political)
People do somehow find ways round it, but those ways aren't a good thing either. Help To Buy loans from the government just encourage the property developers to keep their prices high instead of offering discounts and thus the developers are laughing all the way to the bank.  Longer term mortgages that allow you to keep paying into your retirement aren't good.  Shared ownership isn't good either.  Just lots of schemes that keep the buyers buying and the prices high. If these schemes didn't exist the demand would drop and so would the prices. 

No government wants to be in charge when the bubble bursts, so they keep proping up the financial and house markets in the hope that some kind of miracle will occur. It's insane and not good for society. You have teachers, firemen, nurses and other health workers being unable to afford to live where they work and having to commute on a weekly basis and live in rented rooms just to do their jobs.  That's not good for anyoje. You have families delaying starting a family because they can't afford to buy a house where they can put down roots and settle so their kids can go to school and have security.

Offline Pillowtalk

The demand is there because of low interest rates/cheap money, so people are taking out big mortgages to buy the expensive houses. If interest rates rise, which they do seem to be starting to do a tiny bit, then the money won't be there to support the ever more expensive houses and there will be drop in demand.  It will be interestijg to see what happens when the furlough scheme comes to an end.  Some companies may have decided that they don't need some of their staff as they functioned ok during the panademic with fewer staff    and taxes will rise over the next 2 years to pay for COVID.

Yes, agreed. Big 'if' is interest rates - a significant rise would push a lot of people over the edge I feel, but would we welcomed by savers. Interestingly, the economy seems to be coming out of the pandemic in a better state than many feared, but many individuals will, of course, be worse off. 
Tax rises will be 'interesting' in that it will be interesting to see where a Conservative government (generally opposed to increasing taxes) chooses to increase them. Taxing the rich and better off seems a popular call, but many of the better off pay so much tax already that this may not be easy. Pensioners seem another target but they are big Tory voters and promises have been made to protect the value of state pensions. For my money it's likely to be fags, booze and green taxes, plus stagnant personal allowances, tinkering with pension allowances and pensions themselves, plus to clamp down on expenditure.

Offline Pillowtalk


Oh and i think taxes will need to rise for a long time to pay for covid - and the build up of student debt that will be unpaid and interest on the national debt and pensions etc. Our national finances are going to be in a mess for a long time (due to governments of both colours*) but that is another discussion!


National debt and public finance is in a mess, but with interest rates so low that's not such a bad thing.

Offline PunterNumber69

National debt and public finance is in a mess, but with interest rates so low that's not such a bad thing.
But keeping them low isn't good either. The world has become used to cheap money. When the interest rates rise it will be bad.

Offline l4at

But keeping them low isn't good either. The world has become used to cheap money. When the interest rates rise it will be bad.

Agreed, surely the government can’t be banking on inflating away this national debt?

Offline Ali Katt

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It's a total scam. It's not just London it's worldwide. Most people won't qualify for a mortgage despite working full time. The more you look the more it looks like the market is rigged. In London shit areas with one bedroom flats going for nearly 1 million. There was a feature recently about a shepherd's hut which went for silly money or garden sheds being rented out to jam rolls. Absolutely mad.