Author Topic: Are you going to hit the pub on "Independence day" July 4th  (Read 7660 times)

Offline ProtocolDroid

However this has now stabilised to a trickle of new cases and a quick check reveals there were no new cases in Barrow yesterday.

Doc, is there a way to check new daily cases by LTLA? I'm familiar with External Link/Members Only. That only gives cumulative cases. The 'Download the latest cases data' link (External Link/Members Only) allows you to get more granular recent data, but the intervals seem to vary quite a bit. For instance, the spreadsheet currently has the following data points for Barrow:

02/07/2020 (0 cases)
26/06/2020 (1 case)
23/06/2020 (1 case)
19/06/2020 (1 case)
18/06/2020 (2 cases)
16/06/2020 (1 case)
15/06/2020 (1 case)
14/06/2020 (1 case)
10/06/2020 (1 case)
... and so on

Do you use this spreadsheet for your reference or another source? And if you use this, is your understanding that these are daily cases for each of the dates (so 0 confirmed cases on 2 July), or rather cases that occurred in the intervals (so 0 confirmed cases between 26 June and 2 July)?




« Last Edit: July 03, 2020, 05:40:01 pm by ProtocolDroid »

Offline Doc Holliday

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Do you use this spreadsheet for your reference or another source? And if you use this, is your understanding that these are daily cases for each of the dates (so 0 confirmed cases on 2 July), or rather cases that occurred in the intervals (so 0 confirmed cases between 26 June and 2 July)?

As Matt Hancock would say "thank you that's a very important question", Yes that spreadsheet is a good resource, but I don't know why there are gaps? Some places have very few gaps (if any) and as you have just pointed out Barrow has one quite large gap. I assume on the gap days no tests results were published that day which means in effect any positives in the pipeline are carried over?

The data all gets very confusing in terms of dates ... such as date carried out v date posted out etc and then anything between 24 hours to 5 days for results. I wouldn't place any accuracy on specific dates but just look at how high numbers are and in particular trends.

We seem to be in a situation now where many areas possibly 70% have extremely low numbers and still declining whilst the remainder are rising and in some cases quite significantly (such as Leicester) and this is distorting the total figure which has plateaued.

For example up here on the Fylde coast Blackpool has been quite badly affected per head of population during the epidemic (as with Barrow) but both towns are now in much better position. Blackpool Hospital Trust has recently announced they now only have three Covid inpatients and no new admissions during the last week. This compares with about 150 patients at the peak resulting in around 230 deaths.

To confuse matters further the positive tests have in the last 24 hours been updated to include all pillar 2 tests in the totals for all areas which has boosted the numbers considerably.


Offline wombat42

I think most pubs, cafes and restaurants will try to operate outside if they can as the risks are lower and the rules less stringent. I know one pub which is only doing outside drinking.

Offline Chorley

I think most pubs, cafes and restaurants will try to operate outside if they can as the risks are lower and the rules less stringent. I know one pub which is only doing outside drinking.
Well they'll be empty then as the weather's been shit for days and is going to get worse over the weekend.  :crazy:

Offline wombat42

Well they'll be empty then as the weather's been shit for days and is going to get worse over the weekend.  :crazy:

Yes operating outside is a helpful idea but of course it is weather dependant. In Malta, where I am going to on July 16th, they can easily operate almost everything outdoors as the weather is usually so good at this time of year.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2020, 09:20:04 pm by wombat42 »

Offline winkywanky

I for one, shan't be going inside a pub any time soon. For me personally it still seems too risky.

But luckily I do most of my pub drinking in daylight hours anyway, outside.

In general terms though, this was always going to be tricky, so many businesses will go out of business unless we try to start relaxing Lockdown now.

I picked up some fish & chips today for lunch, and while I waited the couple of minutes sat on the bench seat, TWO fuckwits came and stood very near me for no reason whatsoever, and there was plenty of room elsewhere in the shop. What is it with people?  :unknown:  :dash:

Offline Rochelle

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I for one, shan't be going inside a pub any time soon. For me personally it still seems too risky.

But luckily I do most of my pub drinking in daylight hours anyway, outside.

In general terms though, this was always going to be tricky, so many businesses will go out of business unless we try to start relaxing Lockdown now.

I picked up some fish & chips today for lunch, and while I waited the couple of minutes sat on the bench seat, TWO fuckwits came and stood very near me for no reason whatsoever, and there was plenty of room elsewhere in the shop. What is it with people?  :unknown:  :dash:
There are always those wankers about. Don't you just hate it when there are a million empty seats on a tube or bus but they have to sit beside you? I make a point of getting up and moving.

Offline winkywanky

There are always those wankers about. Don't you just hate it when there are a million empty seats on a tube or bus but they have to sit beside you? I make a point of getting up and moving.


It probably happens to you for a different reason than me Rochelle :rolleyes:  :D

But yes, today I just looked at them with incredulity...they obviously didn't know what incredulity meant so I did literally that, I got up and moved to the other end of the bench. It's seldom worth saying anything of course, as the old saying goes, you can't argue with a fuckwit.

Offline Rochelle

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It probably happens to you for a different reason than me Rochelle :rolleyes:  :D

But yes, today I just looked at them with incredulity...they obviously didn't know what incredulity meant so I did literally that, I got up and moved to the other end of the bench. It's seldom worth saying anything of course, as the old saying goes, you can't argue with a fuckwit.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

Offline LLPunting

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Yes, but then surely you get into the realms of who is allowed to access your health records, and that's no-one outside of the NHS without your specific consent?

So for example if the local authorities wanted access to these stats, surely they'd be excluded?

The authorities only need to know the location of possibly infectious encounters, no names (or other identifiers) needed.  NHS will deal with the contact with individuals for individual test and treatment.

Offline maxxblue

you can't argue with a fuckwit.

That's what the saying might say, but it happens on here quite a few times.  :D

Offline ProtocolDroid

As Matt Hancock would say "thank you that's a very important question", Yes that spreadsheet is a good resource, but I don't know why there are gaps? Some places have very few gaps (if any) and as you have just pointed out Barrow has one quite large gap. I assume on the gap days no tests results were published that day which means in effect any positives in the pipeline are carried over?

Thanks very much. I suppose my concern was initially that the authorities might choose to omit certain dates if test results were "undesirable", given the mismatch between low numbers in these spreadsheets and local outbreaks. However, I have realised that this mismatch has been caused instead by the exclusive focus in the gov.uk data, until 2 July, on Pillar 1 testing.

(For example, the government's decision not to share Pillar 2 test results at local authority level appears to have resulted in External Link/Members Only.)

Now when I look at External Link/Members Only it does indeed seem that at the moment almost everywhere the virus is losing ground, including in Cumbria and most of the rest of the North West. What I don't know, though, is whether this map already includes the Pillar 2 data you also refer to...

The data all gets very confusing in terms of dates ... such as date carried out v date posted out etc and then anything between 24 hours to 5 days for results. I wouldn't place any accuracy on specific dates but just look at how high numbers are and in particular trends.

We seem to be in a situation now where many areas possibly 70% have extremely low numbers and still declining whilst the remainder are rising and in some cases quite significantly (such as Leicester) and this is distorting the total figure which has plateaued.

For example up here on the Fylde coast Blackpool has been quite badly affected per head of population during the epidemic (as with Barrow) but both towns are now in much better position. Blackpool Hospital Trust has recently announced they now only have three Covid inpatients and no new admissions during the last week. This compares with about 150 patients at the peak resulting in around 230 deaths.

To confuse matters further the positive tests have in the last 24 hours been updated to include all pillar 2 tests in the totals for all areas which has boosted the numbers considerably.

Thank you, very useful to know how you look at and make use of the data. It might have been helpful if the gov.uk spreadsheets had included a cautionary note around the inclusion of Pillar 2 data as of 2 July, but I suspect that might be considered to draw too much attention to the previous "oversight" :dash:



Online scutty brown

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Anyone know if they are including people who are asymptomatic but give a positive antibody test? I can see that creating counting issues

Offline Doc Holliday

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Thank you, very useful to know how you look at and make use of the data. It might have been helpful if the gov.uk spreadsheets had included a cautionary note around the inclusion of Pillar 2 data as of 2 July, but I suspect that might be considered to draw too much attention to the previous "oversight" :dash:

Re Pillar2 ...there is now a banner at the top of the first link you provided External Link/Members Only

This is further explained here External Link/Members Only

Offline Doc Holliday

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Anyone know if they are including people who are asymptomatic but give a positive antibody test? I can see that creating counting issues

Only positive antigen tests are included in the data under discussion, but antibody tests are included in the daily figures for total number of tests carried out.

Offline ProtocolDroid

Anyone know if they are including people who are asymptomatic but give a positive antibody test? I can see that creating counting issues

Antibodies testing is Pillar 3 and as such not included in the main gov.uk data sets I've referred to... as far as I know anyway. Doc is the real authority.

EDIT: And Doc has been quicker on the draw than me! :D
« Last Edit: July 04, 2020, 10:46:54 am by ProtocolDroid »

Offline ProtocolDroid

Re Pillar2 ...there is now a banner at the top of the first link you provided External Link/Members Only

This is further explained here External Link/Members Only

Thank you, yes, I see a useful note there also about the way in which the dates are attributed, which wasn't previously clear to me:

Data were previously shown by reporting date. The reporting date is the date that PHE published the data, which would normally be one day after the laboratory submitted the data to PHE. In many cases labs submit data in batches, so there may be no cases for a week and then a large number on one day. This is not helpful for analysing the incidence of COVID-19 over time.

The data are now shown by the date the specimen was taken from the person being tested. This gives a much more useful analysis of the progression of cases over time. It does mean that the latest days’ figures are always incomplete, and only data from 5 days or more ago can be considered complete.


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Offline wombat42

I think I am just going to drink out doors in pub gardens etc. The weather is too poor right now but I think getting better from about midday tomorrow.

Offline DastardlyDick

Not on your f***ing nelly!
They're going to be full of pissed up twats, so it's not going to take much for it to kick off, big style!
I don't know how BrewDog think they're going to open at 00:01 - the government have said they can open at 06:00 isn't that early enough?

Offline Steve2

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As Matt Hancock would say "thank you that's a very important question", Yes that spreadsheet is a good resource, but I don't know why there are gaps? Some places have very few gaps (if any) and as you have just pointed out Barrow has one quite large gap. I assume on the gap days no tests results were published that day which means in effect any positives in the pipeline are carried over?

The data all gets very confusing in terms of dates ... such as date carried out v date posted out etc and then anything between 24 hours to 5 days for results. I wouldn't place any accuracy on specific dates but just look at how high numbers are and in particular trends.

We seem to be in a situation now where many areas possibly 70% have extremely low numbers and still declining whilst the remainder are rising and in some cases quite significantly (such as Leicester) and this is distorting the total figure which has plateaued.

For example up here on the Fylde coast Blackpool has been quite badly affected per head of population during the epidemic (as with Barrow) but both towns are now in much better position. Blackpool Hospital Trust has recently announced they now only have three Covid inpatients and no new admissions during the last week. This compares with about 150 patients at the peak resulting in around 230 deaths.

To confuse matters further the positive tests have in the last 24 hours been updated to include all pillar 2 tests in the totals for all areas which has boosted the numbers considerably.

That confused me Doc!!


Offline RedKettle

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Not this weekend, best avoided and let the excitement die down. However I am booking a table in a pub one evening next week for a meal.  That will be a nice change and I think when I am booking it will be quiet.

Perhaps the wife will be so pleased that there will be a bonus later on.  :dance:   No I do not think so either.  :dash:

Offline Doc Holliday

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That confused me Doc!!

Sorry my bad.  I was off sick the day we did sentence construction  :D

I did of course mean there were around 150 patients in Blackpool hospital at the peak and around 230 of all admitted patients have died in the hospital since the epidemic start (and not that some patients died twice) ... although the way the government has collected data you never know?  :D

Offline Doc Holliday

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Thank you, yes, I see a useful note there also about the way in which the dates are attributed, which wasn't previously clear to me:

Data were previously shown by reporting date. The reporting date is the date that PHE published the data, which would normally be one day after the laboratory submitted the data to PHE. In many cases labs submit data in batches, so there may be no cases for a week and then a large number on one day. This is not helpful for analysing the incidence of COVID-19 over time.

The data are now shown by the date the specimen was taken from the person being tested. This gives a much more useful analysis of the progression of cases over time. It does mean that the latest days’ figures are always incomplete, and only data from 5 days or more ago can be considered complete.


 :thumbsup:


Online sparkus

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Not even 2pm and I've already had my first "Fancy a pint?" text.

Offline Adoniron

Not even 2pm and I've already had my first "Fancy a pint?" text.

And your reply was?

Offline Avg_Joe

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Thank you, yes, I see a useful note there also about the way in which the dates are attributed, which wasn't previously clear to me:

Data were previously shown by reporting date. The reporting date is the date that PHE published the data, which would normally be one day after the laboratory submitted the data to PHE. In many cases labs submit data in batches, so there may be no cases for a week and then a large number on one day. This is not helpful for analysing the incidence of COVID-19 over time.

The data are now shown by the date the specimen was taken from the person being tested. This gives a much more useful analysis of the progression of cases over time. It does mean that the latest days’ figures are always incomplete, and only data from 5 days or more ago can be considered complete.


there's a beta page with charts/graphs on it now, and more details breakdown for each catorgary...... External Link/Members Only
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Offline ulstersubbie

Have any of you been to the pub yet, out of interest?

Offline Avg_Joe

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Online sparkus

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And your reply was?

Yep. Currently sat in half full beer garden :drinks:

Offline dubs

Farage is already tweeting a pic of himself in the pub, less than 14 days after he returned from the US.  The quarantine law doesn't apply to him apparently.

External Link/Members Only


Offline Adoniron

Farage is already tweeting a pic of himself in the pub, less than 14 days after he returned from the US.  The quarantine law doesn't apply to him apparently.

External Link/Members Only

No the law doesn't apply to him.

Offline Chorley

No the law doesn't apply to him.
The Lib Dems have referred him to Kent Police. :sarcastic:

Online sparkus

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Earlier pub beer garden was about two thirds full, nearest people to us about three metres away, several staff on hand to enforce social distancing and take orders at table.  Pub inside was quite empty, no bar service and antibac on hand next to toilets.  One way system entrance and exit.  Quite sedate.

My god, I've missed admiring civvy birds though (one mahoosive pair on a crusty bird in a hoody).

Online sparkus

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I can't say the same for Soho, where idiocy seems to be abounding: External Link/Members Only

Offline winkywanky

Earlier pub beer garden was about two thirds full, nearest people to us about three metres away, several staff on hand to enforce social distancing and take orders at table.  Pub inside was quite empty, no bar service and antibac on hand next to toilets.  One way system entrance and exit.  Quite sedate.

My god, I've missed admiring civvy birds though (one mahoosive pair on a crusty bird in a hoody).


All sounds like a workable plan  :thumbsup:

Good to see you got a nice eyeful of civvie cleavage too, I do hope you weren't with your missus sparkus  ;)

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All sounds like a workable plan  :thumbsup:

Good to see you got a nice eyeful of civvie cleavage too, I do hope you weren't with your missus sparkus  ;)

I plead the fifth on that one :sarcastic:

Oh, Waitrose bird is back too :yahoo:

Offline winkywanky

I plead the fifth on that one :sarcastic:

Oh, Waitrose bird is back too
:yahoo:


Yaaay!!  :D

Offline ulstersubbie

Earlier pub beer garden was about two thirds full, nearest people to us about three metres away, several staff on hand to enforce social distancing and take orders at table.  Pub inside was quite empty, no bar service and antibac on hand next to toilets.  One way system entrance and exit.  Quite sedate.



I'm off to Birmingham/Cheltenham next week, so now know what to expect.

Offline Avg_Joe

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expect a bunch of fucking idots with zero regard for anyone else.

apparently one of the smaller "wine bar" style places near me was cram packed with fuckwits earlier this evening, you can barely swing a fat bird in there at the best of times, so no chance of distancing.

« Last Edit: July 05, 2020, 02:20:28 am by Avg_Joe »
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Offline munterhunter

I think the question should be Are you going to be hit if you go to the pub on Independence Day.
Various police forces around the UK had to break up fights and have said "Drunk people cannot or will not observe social distancing guidelines"
You only had to look at the images of crowded beaches when we had the heatwave the other week to realise that pubs could be a flash point.
Some decent pubs haven't survived the lockdown. Those that have needed to install safety measures so they can reopen. If there's another lockdown because of an increase in new Covid-19 cases or because some people can't be trusted to behave how many more places will close?
I have to admit my first thought yesterday wasn't to go to the pub!

Offline Chorley

I normally have a lot if contact with neighbourhood officers in my job. Strangely enough I didn't see anyone at all yesterday until one of the PCSO's showed up.  :unknown:
He apologised and said he was having to cover jobs as everyone else on the team was tied up dealing with drunken fuckwits!  :angry:
This was at 4pm and there'd already been three fights between groups of blokes and security who refused entry due to them being so intoxicated.  :dash: :dash: :dash:
God knows what kicking out time was like? .  :dash: :dash: :dash:

Offline Avg_Joe

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God knows what kicking out time was like? .  :dash: :dash: :dash:

by then they were probably dribbling puking messes hopefully sat in the gutter in a puddle of their own vomit, and awoke this morning to find themselves.... still in that puddle of now dried vomit  :lol:
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Offline David1970

Social distancing in Soho last night, let’s wait for a second spike

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Offline Hobbit

Social distancing in Soho last night, let’s wait for a second spike

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That's a long queue to get into a Gay bar.  :D

Offline David1970

That's a long queue to get into a Gay bar.  :D

Is is that you at the back of that guy bloke in the queue?  :D

Offline Hobbit

Is is that you at the back of that guy bloke in the queue?  :D

Yep, standing right next to you.  :P


Offline David1970

Yep, standing right next to you.  :P

Sorry I don’t recognise you in your in your lycra hot pants :D

Offline Avg_Joe

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