Oxford Vaccine development

[tintin100]

The Chinese and far-Eastern students at Universities near me have predominantly worn masks for a good few years. I used to think they were germophobes but I presume it has its roots in the SARS outbreak in that region? Fact they seem to have got through and beaten SARS might suggest there is something in the theory that masks do have a big role in fostering immunity to stuff like Covid?

In Hong Kong wearing a mask is very common, people will wear a mask if they have a cold so that other people won't catch it, can't see that happening in the UK.   

[Gordon Bennett]

Something that is often missed when considering the costs is the so-called "long covid", i.e. people who still have symptoms some 3-6 months after infection - there are already an estimated 60k such people in the UK:

External Link/Members Only

Of course we don't know yet how these people will be in 3 years, or 30 years, but we should consider the possibility that this virus may cause permanent or long-term disability.

On top of this, covid seems to significantly elevate stroke risk in people of all ages:

External Link/Members Only


So if you are proposing a "herd immunity" strategy, you need to also factor in the economic and social consequences of hundreds of thousands, perhaps reaching a million, people with medium-to-long-term illness who then may not be able work, or only be able to work limited hours, or need expensive long-term medical care.

All of this on top of scutty's point about the numbers not adding up in the first place.

Surely these are people who would have Yuppy Flu? In terms of the economy, their impact will be negligible because they would be ill anyway..... if it wasn't "Long Covid" it'd be some other non-organic ailment.

[Squire Haggard]

The smoking gun?

''On Saturday we reported that Dr. Li-Meng Yan - a Chinese virologist (MD, PhD) who fled the country, leaving her job at a prestigious Hong Kong university - appeared last week on British television where she claimed SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, was created by Chinese scientists in a lab.

On Sunday, Li-Meng joined Twitter - and on Monday, just hours ago, she tweeted a link to a paper she co-authored with three other Chinese scientists titled:

Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route''


External Link/Members Only

[webpunter]

Lifting a section:

"The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has led to over 910,000 deaths worldwide & unprecedented decimation of the global economy"

Supposedly less than 5,000 deaths in China which given the population size is very low
1.35 billion give or take
UK population 65 million / thereabouts, so 20x smaller
On this basis if the UK matched China's success in treating the virus there should be about 1/20th of 5,000 = 250
Yet its 40,000+
If China had as many deaths [as the UK] in line with the size of their population this would be 800,000+ 
Something definitely does NOT add up

The virus has probably killed more than a million people worldwide already with unreported cases
The PRC's attitude towards their populations lives hardly suggests that they give a monkey's arse about deaths

Whilst the global slow-down will have an effect on China's economy this will be relatively short term
And where is most PPE made ?
So some material gains
Not the decimation felt in every other economy apart from theirs

So they are ahead in terms of the number of deaths caused & fear spread in other countries c.f. their own 
And are absolutely ahead economically
It could be viewed that they [well some of the Chinese] could have benefitted from the virus

Not that the rest of the world is ever going to find out
Or be able to prove it

The smoking gun?

''On Saturday we reported that Dr. Li-Meng Yan - a Chinese virologist (MD, PhD) who fled the country, leaving her job at a prestigious Hong Kong university - appeared last week on British television where she claimed SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, was created by Chinese scientists in a lab.

On Sunday, Li-Meng joined Twitter - and on Monday, just hours ago, she tweeted a link to a paper she co-authored with three other Chinese scientists titled:

Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route''


External Link/Members Only

Edit:
Two options for China spreading the virus:

1/ lifestyle behaviour with 'wet' markets & a desire to eat god knows what
OR
2/ made in a lab

They have categorically denied the 2nd
& on the 1st it seems to me that their explanation is that it just happened & they did everything they could to stop it & tell the WHO

In me believing this explanation i recall a quote by Mick McCarthy    "As long as there is a hole in my bum, that wasn't a red card"
External Link/Members Only

[j_181]

Surely these are people who would have Yuppy Flu? In terms of the economy, their impact will be negligible because they would be ill anyway

Do you have any evidence for this claim? As far as I know, no-one is collecting and reporting data to work out the characteristics of these people. Anecdotally, I know of many young, previously fit, people who are now diasabled to a greater or lesser extent.

[j_181]

On this basis if the UK matched China's success in treating the virus there should be about 1/20th of 5,000 = 250
Yet its 40,000+
If China had as many deaths [as the UK] in line with the size of their population this would be 800,000+ 
Something definitely does NOT add up

China has had no meaningful success in treatment of the infection. Their success has been in effective infection control, with rapid and strict lockdowns and compulsory mask-wearing. In the UK we dilly-dallied over locking down, and then when we did it was a much more loose lockdown, with no consequences for breaking it, we didn't do anything about the borders for ages, then told people to quarantine upon arrival, unless of course they didn't want to, we dilly-dallied again for ages on masks, then said they are compulsory on public transport, unless you don't want to, then waited again before making them compulsory in shops, again unless you don't want to, and then even though cases were churning along at 500-1000/day we opened everything up again. Its no mystery why we have had so many more cases than China.

1/ lifestyle behaviour with 'wet' markets & a desire to eat god knows what
OR
2/ made in a lab

They have categorically denied the 2nd
& on the 1st it seems to me that their explanation is that it just happened & they did everything they could to stop it & tell the WHO

In me believing this explanation i recall a quote by Mick McCarthy    "As long as there is a hole in my bum, that wasn't a red card"
External Link/Members Only

SARS and MERS happened organically. This is a very similar virus. If it really is a SARS variant lab-modified to increase infectivity, all I can say is that the modifiers were morons. SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences are publicly available; I could have done a better job, and I'm just a jobbing molecular biologist with no real expertise in virology.

Of course, they are lying about about having done "everything they could to stop it", because "everything" to stop viral transmission from animals to humans would mean greatly reducing animal agriculture, and no-one wants to do that, Western countries included. Keeping huge numbers of animals in enclosed unhygienic spaces is a recipe for disaster and eating "god knows what" as you put it is not really the issue - the avian and swine flu near-misses of recent years and the UK foot and mouth outbreaks are evidence enough of that

[webpunter]

IMO the most informative post on this thread 

As for how the public here are requested to behave "unless you don't want to"
Hit the nail on the head
At least in european countries wearing masks is mandatory & fines issued if you don't
It can't be denied that there are benefits in mask wearing
As for here the civil liberties brigade bang on about people's rights
Can see why the police don't want to get involved
They'll be accused of racial profiling for starters
In europe you either give your details & a fine is issued or if you can't prove who you are you could be arrested & spend an overnight stay
Most people will realise that they have responsibilities as well as rights
There is enough of a minority of beligerent cunts who couldn't give a fuck
Until something happens to them or someone they know.  Then its always someone else's fault
They need to be fined & to a level which makes this painful
And if they don't pay there are repurcussions which will be followed up on
If you do what is needed nothing to worry about
Only being a responsible citizen can't be that fcuking hard 

China has had no meaningful success in treatment of the infection. Their success has been in effective infection control, with rapid and strict lockdowns and compulsory mask-wearing. In the UK we dilly-dallied over locking down, and then when we did it was a much more loose lockdown, with no consequences for breaking it, we didn't do anything about the borders for ages, then told people to quarantine upon arrival, unless of course they didn't want to, we dilly-dallied again for ages on masks, then said they are compulsory on public transport, unless you don't want to, then waited again before making them compulsory in shops, again unless you don't want to, and then even though cases were churning along at 500-1000/day we opened everything up again. Its no mystery why we have had so many more cases than China.

SARS and MERS happened organically. This is a very similar virus. If it really is a SARS variant lab-modified to increase infectivity, all I can say is that the modifiers were morons. SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences are publicly available; I could have done a better job, and I'm just a jobbing molecular biologist with no real expertise in virology.

Of course, they are lying about about having done "everything they could to stop it", because "everything" to stop viral transmission from animals to humans would mean greatly reducing animal agriculture, and no-one wants to do that, Western countries included. Keeping huge numbers of animals in enclosed unhygienic spaces is a recipe for disaster and eating "god knows what" as you put it is not really the issue - the avian and swine flu near-misses of recent years and the UK foot and mouth outbreaks are evidence enough of that

[Wadebridge]

Good post j_181.
Firmly hit the nail on the head exposing many home truths there, regarding the virus spread. 
Zoonotic virus my arse, is my opinion.
 Every time the TV or papers try to sell this angle I find the whole business insulting to my intelligence.

SARS and MERS happened organically.

Interesting! Was it ever scientifically proven that SARS occurred naturally? That's a bat coronavirus as well isn't it, and also spread like an epidemic for a while.
If science reckons it has the 'answer' as to what happened with SARS, then surely it has the answer for covid-19 as well?
Of course there are some 'conspiracy' theories too about SARS as well that do exist in the public domain.

SARS and MERS happened organically. This is a very similar virus. If it really is a SARS variant lab-modified to increase infectivity, all I can say is that the modifiers were morons. SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences are publicly available; I could have done a better job, and I'm just a jobbing molecular biologist with no real expertise in virology.

Gung-ho morons.
I totally agree that the most likely scenario is that the virus 'leaked' from China's top-level biosecure virology laboratory in Wuhan. Logistically that would seem to be the most obvious explanation.
But of course we should also be aware that there are other countries, in particular the Septic Tanks, that have also been 'experimenting' with bat coronaviruses for years.
Including this 'Pentagon' funded laboratory in former Soviet Union territory Georgia.
External Link/Members Only

Not that the rest of the world is ever going to find out
Or be able to prove it

Exactly!
That is for me the most frustrating part. We will never know!
Yes, whichever theories are aired as being the 'most likely', all would be incredibly difficult to prove.
However the 'public inquiry' could begin with the alleged pandemic simulation exercise of October 2019 and ask some probing questions. Rather curious that it was modelled on a coronavirus, rather than a flu virus.
Some would argue a bit more than a coincidence, and rightly so.
Who ordered the pandemic simulation and why?
But, as far as I'm concerned, they can STFU about covid-19 being a zoonotic virus that has jumped the species barrier. That kind of claptrap really does insult one's intelligence.

[Doc Holliday]

@ Wadebridge. My interpretation of J_181's post appears completely at odd's with your interpretation? My interpretation is that in his opinion the virus is not from a lab but has occurred naturally?

[Wadebridge]

@Doc. The laboratory helped virus is just my opinion.
I was simply 100% agreeing with j_181's observations about why the UK has not seen the same general success that China has with regard to its coronavirus infection control policies.
The month of September is here and still the UK govt Test, Trace & Isolate esponse is abysmal.
We have all the schools returning and colleges and Universities too, and UK is again overwhelmed and can't cope with the huge increase in demand for covid tests.
It's not as if it was unexpected for the govt.
 This spike in test demand must have been foreseen even in the early summer when the govt was hoping to send schoolchildren back for 4 weeks prior to the summer vacation but then pulled it. 
It's just one calamity following another.
Embarrassing, shameful, and abysmal.
Okay?

[j_181]

@ Wadebridge. My interpretation of J_181's post appears completely at odd's with your interpretation? My interpretation is that in his opinion the virus is not from a lab but has occurred naturally?

That is the correct interpretation. I am not sure how Wadebridge convinced himself that I said the exact opposite of what I did.

Zoonotic virus my arse, is my opinion.
 Every time the TV or papers try to sell this angle I find the whole business insulting to my intelligence.

Why? What specifically makes you think it is man-made? Give us some details.

Interesting! Was it ever scientifically proven that SARS occurred naturally?

There is no such thing as scientific "proof". There is good evidence that it did, and little evidence to the contrary.

If science reckons it has the 'answer' as to what happened with SARS, then surely it has the answer for covid-19 as well?

I have no idea what you are asking here. The 'answer' to what question?

Of course there are some 'conspiracy' theories too about SARS as well that do exist in the public domain.

Sure. There are also conspiracy theories about 5G, and about AIDS and about the queen being a 9-foot alien lizard. So what?
 

I totally agree that the most likely scenario is that the virus 'leaked' from China's top-level biosecure virology laboratory in Wuhan. Logistically that would seem to be the most obvious explanation.

You can't agree wtih something I didn't say 

However the 'public inquiry' could begin with the alleged pandemic simulation exercise of October 2019 and ask some probing questions. Rather curious that it was modelled on a coronavirus, rather than a flu virus.
Some would argue a bit more than a coincidence, and rightly so.

I assume you are referring to Event 201 - if so the answer to your question is available with a quick google search. It was not an "alleged" simulation, it happened, was recorded, and is publicly available. I would also point out that such exercises have been run in many countries on a regular basis for decades. In the UK we ran operation Cygnus in 2016, for example.
SARS and MERS were a pretty good reason to use a coronavirus. Of course you don't mention all of the details of the simulation that DON'T match covid, such as the initial outbreak being in Brazil, and the initial reservoir being pigs.

Also your conspiracy theory isn't even internally consistent - first it was China, now the huge group of people involved in this exercise, including economists, public health academics, etc, are in on it too? Make up your mind.

Who ordered the pandemic simulation and why?

Google it. Publicly availabe information. You can even watch a recording of it.

But, as far as I'm concerned, they can STFU about covid-19 being a zoonotic virus that has jumped the species barrier. That kind of claptrap really does insult one's intelligence.

You still haven't explained WHY. Convince us. What is the evidence that convinced you it is not true, other than vague insinuations about a pandemic exercise?

And as I pointed out before, SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences are publicly available. If you want to show us some features of those genomes that make you think they are man-made, I am all ears.

[Wadebridge]

Why? What specifically makes you think it is man-made? Give us some details.

I'm suggesting that the naturally existing bat coronavirus; that is 96% similar to nCov;  has had its 'spike' tampered with in a laboratory; its S-protein; so as to increase its infectivity towards humans. That is precisely what's had the lab helping hand. And the rest is history.
It is extremely contagious towards humans which is why we are now in the midst of a global pandemic. Such extreme contagion would have been incredibly difficult to achieve through natural evolution of a bat coronavirus.
It might be yet still a minority view among scientists, but there are definitely some with this belief, that the nCov's S-protein has no similarity with any other naturally occurring virus.
This minority somehow don't seem to get the same level of publicity that the zoonotic believers do, though.

There is no such thing as scientific "proof". There is good evidence that it did, and little evidence to the contrary.

Aaah. That's a shame. Rather than the vague 'there's good evidence that it did' I was kinda hoping that you'd explain the SARS origin and how it adapted to humans.
Instead I go by Wiki which states that, although the original outbreak was in 2002, and lasted about 18 months til 2004, it was not until 2017 that Chinese scientists actually suggested that they'd mapped the vector; from bats to civets to humans.
That's a long time period that has elapsed. You can make up any old story 14 or 15 years later. That's the same sort of time frame for official secrets to be outed isn't it?
With nCov, the public will want answers here and now, not 15 years later.
God help us if we have to wait another 15 years to hear some kind of official explanation. But like I said earlier, agreeing with Webpunter, we will likely never know.

I assume you are referring to Event 201 ...
SARS and MERS were a pretty good reason to use a coronavirus. Of course you don't mention all of the details of the simulation that DON'T match covid, such as the initial outbreak being in Brazil, and the initial reservoir being pigs.

Yes, exactly. Event201.
SARS and MERS were a long time ago. Since then there were the more recent scares about bird flu and swine flu that might have pandemic potential. In the end the response was alarmist but any such pandemic exercise would have been much more relevant with these more recent avian and/or swine flu viruses, not a historic coronavirus.
What I find really suspicious about Event 201 is the timing. We have a simulation exercise run in Oct 2019 with the John Hopkins University, Bill Gates, and the Pirbright Institute saying that the fallout, in numbers of deaths, the collapsed economy etc would be catastrophic, yet these doomsday findings were never officially published.
Then lo and behold, what happens in December 2019. We get an outbreak of exactly the coronavirus they had been modelling, and it quickly turns extremely infectious and pandemic.
We certainly need some credible answers next year as to how this pandemic happened, not have to wait 15 to 20 years.
Not like the official line that was eventually signed off with regard to SARS, where we get some 'whitewash' explanation 15 years later about a historical outbreak that had largely been forgotten about.

[j_181]

I'm suggesting that the naturally existing bat coronavirus; that is 96% similar to nCov;  has had its 'spike' tampered with in a laboratory; its S-protein; so as to increase its infectivity towards humans. That is precisely what's had the lab helping hand. And the rest is history.
It is extremely contagious towards humans which is why we are now in the midst of a global pandemic. Such extreme contagion would have been incredibly difficult to achieve through natural evolution of a bat coronavirus.

Why?
I would argue that all evolution looks unlikely in retrospect, because it relies on random mutation, followed by selection. Each individual random mutation is itself unlikely. Consider, as an example off the top of my head, the mutations leading to changes in human skin colour as early humans migrated north to europe and asia. Several genes had to mutate in exactly the right positions to modify their functions in exactly the right way,on a background of a genome that is 3 billion base pairs. That is incredibly unlikely!
Fake news?! White people must have been made in a lab?! Of course not. The reality is this was a series of changes all selected for because they conferred some survival or reproductive advantage.

I think ultimately you argument is a variant on the "intelligent design" argument commonly made by evolution-deniers, and relies on the prosecutor's fallacy: External Link/Members Only

Consider this case: a lottery winner is accused of cheating, based on the improbability of winning. At the trial, the prosecutor calculates the (very small) probability of winning the lottery without cheating and argues that this is the chance of innocence. The logical flaw is that the prosecutor has failed to account for the large number of people who play the lottery. While the probability of any singular person winning is quite low, the probability of any person winning the lottery, given the number of people who play it, is very high.

In this specfic case, what you are ignoring is all the coronvirus strains in circulation that haven't jumped to humans.

the nCov's S-protein has no similarity with any other naturally occurring virus.

This is simply not true. It has 93% nucleotide identity, and 98% amino acid identity with RaTG13 spike protein External Link/Members Only

Here you can see a sequence alignment of the receptor binding domains: External Link/Members Only

Were you unaware of this, or are you lying and hoping no-one checks?

This minority somehow don't seem to get the same level of publicity that the zoonotic believers do, though.Aaah. That's a shame. Rather than the vague 'there's good evidence that it did' I was kinda hoping that you'd explain the SARS origin and how it adapted to humans.

I am not a public education service. This information is readily available. If you want to read the relevant papers on SARS origin then come back and discuss parts you don't understand, happy to do that.

What I find really suspicious about Event 201 is the timing. We have a simulation exercise run in Oct 2019 with the John Hopkins University, Bill Gates, and the Pirbright Institute saying that the fallout, in numbers of deaths, the collapsed economy etc would be catastrophic, yet these doomsday findings were never officially published.

This is the prosecutors fallacy, again. These events are run all the time, all around the world. Whenever a pandemic happened to break out, you would have been able to find a simulation exercise somewhere within six months or so. You say its "convenient" that they modelled a coronavirus, but ignore all the parts of the simuation that don't match this pandemic.

Also, the event was literally live-streamed on the internet, and the video is still publicly available.

[Wadebridge]

This is simply not true. It has 93% nucleotide identity, and 98% amino acid identity with RaTG13 spike protein External Link/Members Only
Here you can see a sequence alignment of the receptor binding domains: External Link/Members Only
Were you unaware of this, or are you lying and hoping no-one checks?

These findings and documents are way over my head, I'm afraid.
I'll admit I was unaware of the specific documents that you have linked to.
However, I still maintain that scientists opinions are divided, with some solidly sticking to the argument that live animal farming is responsible, whilst others claim they can't see a natural evolutionary link between the spike protein of RaTG13-bat Cov and nCov.

This is the prosecutors fallacy, again. These events are run all the time, all around the world. Whenever a pandemic happened to break out, you would have been able to find a simulation exercise somewhere within six months or so. You say its "convenient" that they modelled a coronavirus, but ignore all the parts of the simuation that don't match this pandemic.
Also, the event was literally live-streamed on the internet, and the video is still publicly available.

Err, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the last pandemic over 100 years ago, the 'Spanish Flu' of 1914 to 1918?
SARS and MERS were not pandemics. Neither was Ebola.  They were epidemics,  not pandemics.
If I watched it I doubt it would give me any clearer an insight into its true purpose.
I still maintain that the doomsday findings of the Event201 exercise were not made public. They were deliberately suppressed precisely because the projected outcome of a coronavirus pandemic was so catastrophic.
Nine months on, in real life, the contagion is spreading globally not contracting. The consequences on human life and for the global economy are already dire, but alas, seem to be only the tip.of the iceberg.

[Wadebridge]

Latest doom-mongering predictions are that India is set to overtake the United States in terms of number of coronaviris cases and also number of deaths.
It is also in the same news that Russia is to provide 100 million doses of its 'Sputnik-V' covid vaccine to an Indian pharmaceutical company for clinical trials.
So this should provide a useful insight iand test as to how successful or not a vaccine it might be, and either boost, or dash, world hopes.

[winkywanky]

Latest doom-mongering predictions are that India is set to overtake the United States in terms of number of coronaviris cases and also number of deaths.
It is also in the same news that Russia is to provide 100 million doses of its 'Sputnik-V' covid vaccine to an Indian pharmaceutical company for clinical trials.
So this should provide a useful insight iand test as to how successful or not a vaccine it might be, and either boost, or dash, world hopes.

Why 'doom-mongering' when it's the truth? Would you rather just not hear? You could always choose to simply not watch the News if you want.

Regarding Russia, I thought they'd already announced that Sputnik was a working vaccine and that they'd started rolling it out to their own population a couople of weeks ago? And now they want to use India as a test-bed? I wish they'd make up their bloody mind  .

[winkywanky]

Here you go, vaccine technology you can trust...External Link/Members Only 

[scutty brown]

Latest doom-mongering predictions are that India is set to overtake the United States in terms of number of coronaviris cases and also number of deaths.
It is also in the same news that Russia is to provide 100 million doses of its 'Sputnik-V' covid vaccine to an Indian pharmaceutical company for clinical trials.
So this should provide a useful insight iand test as to how successful or not a vaccine it might be, and either boost, or dash, world hopes.

Dunno where you get that kind of crap from, India has one of  the lowest death rates from Corvid. The reason why is unclear, but it could be because India has a predominantly young population with relatively few fatties or diabetics or other risk factors.
As for buying vaccine from Russia, more likely they would make it under contract FOR Russia - India is in the top two or three in terms of global vaccine production by volume

[Wadebridge]

Dunno where you get that kind of crap from, India has one of  the lowest death rates from Corvid. The reason why is unclear, but it could be because India has a predominantly young population with relatively few fatties or diabetics or other risk factors.
As for buying vaccine from Russia, more likely they would make it under contract FOR Russia - India is in the top two or three in terms of global vaccine production by volume

External Link/Members Only.
One of the highest death rates in the world,  and India's health system severely stretched, maybe set to reaching breaking point soon.
It is estimated India will overtake the US as being the worst affected country in the world in as soon as a few weeks.

[scutty brown]

External Link/Members Only.
One of the highest death rates in the world,  and India's health system severely stretched, maybe set to reaching breaking point soon.
It is estimated India will overtake the US as being the worst affected country in the world in as soon as a few weeks.

That linked page doesn't exist.
However this does 
External Link/Members Only
Looks like Dr Reddy's Labs have signed up to do the phase III trials for the Russians - however so far the Russians are finding a 14% rate of side effects. You have to understand there will be political shennanigans going on here - Dr Reddy was rabidly anti-west and anti-British and used Commie-bloc technology as often as possible, to the detriment of production. And the alleged 100 million doses are only relevant if the drug passes phase III - they're not for phase III. And even 100 million is insignificant for India - its around 7-8% of the population

meanwhile this report of today, also from the Times of India is more realistic
External Link/Members Only
its the Indian health minister being more honest over  vaccine availability

[j_181]

These findings and documents are way over my head, I'm afraid.
I'll admit I was unaware of the specific documents that you have linked to.

quelle surprise.

However, I still maintain that scientists opinions are divided, with some solidly sticking to the argument that live animal farming is responsible, whilst others claim they can't see a natural evolutionary link between the spike protein of RaTG13-bat Cov and nCov.

I very much doubt that, because "can't see a link" is just not something someone with expertise in this field would say. Either you are lying or you have paraphrased to the point of changing the meaning because you don't understand what you are talking about, as you freely admit above.

Err, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the last pandemic over 100 years ago, the 'Spanish Flu' of 1914 to 1918?
SARS and MERS were not pandemics. Neither was Ebola.  They were epidemics,  not pandemics.

You have misunderstood. Imagine a pandemic had happened in, for exampe, 2017. Right now you would be saying "oh well, operation Cygnus happened in 2016 ISNT THAT CONVENIENT".
You can replace 2017 and operation Cygnus with any other year and associated tabletop exercise, because they are conducted frequently.

If I watched it I doubt it would give me any clearer an insight into its true purpose.

The point is that you CAN watch it, so it is clearly not "suppressed" as you claim.

[Wadebridge]

I very much doubt that, because "can't see a link" is just not something someone with expertise in this field would say. Either you are lying or you have paraphrased to the point of changing the meaning because you don't understand what you are talking about, as you freely admit above.

Hmm... quite insulting to me, and to the intelligence, to suggest that I'm talking codswallop, simply because I don't have the necessary scientific, epidemiological background to easily understand these very 'cerebral' set of statistics, and data.

From a Covid-19 Wikipedia entry reference:
"Knowledge gaps and key questions to be answered to guide control strategies include:
Source of infection
• Animal origin and natural reservoir of the virus
• Human-animal interface of the original event
• Early cases whose exposure could not be identified
The pathogenesis and virulence evolution of the virus ..."

So, for a layman like me, and in my own layman's speak,  what this means is ...
1. They currently don't know how RaTG13-bat Cov made the 'natural' jump to humans, ie which animal vector was involved.
Yes sure, they can say pangolins, or pigs, or raccoon dogs, or whatever,15 to 20 years down the line, when the population's memory has faded,  like they did with SARS (outbreak 2002, official explanation 2017). Yeah, right!
2. They still cannot say, with any certainty whatsoever, that the virus originated in the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. It appears there were early infectious patients in Nov/Dec 2019 who had no association with the wet market.
3. They still have not identified the 'patient zero' in Wuhan, China. Interesting, since the alleged patient-zero both in Italy,  and in UK, has allegedly already been identified.
4. (In blue). This suggests to me that they are still adamant that the virulence evolution of nCov is still a 'grey area'.
Or in other words how come scientists that have been collecting, researching, and experimenting with RATG13-bat Cov for years, if not decades, have not succumbed in earlier years to this deadly viral pneumomia..
If indeed it's lethal infectivity is a naturally progressive one.

Wet markets have been going on in China for decades. No outbreaks of nasties.
Bush meat markets have been been going on in UK for decades. No.outbreaks of nasties.
So you can spout out all the claptrap you like about the origin of this virus being a natural and inevitable occurrence of nature.
I don't believe it.
And what's more many of the people I know, and associate with, don't believe it either.

You have misunderstood. Imagine a pandemic had happened in, for exampe, 2017. Right now you would be saying "oh well, operation Cygnus happened in 2016 ISNT THAT CONVENIENT".[/b]
You can replace 2017 and operation Cygnus with any other year and associated tabletop exercise, because they are conducted frequently.

Operation Cygnus,  if I'm not mistaken,  was modelled on an influenza virus, with possible pandemic potential, following the earlier 'overblown' scares of avian flu, and swine flu, outbreaks.
Event 201,  based on a novel coronavirus outbreak, and simulated in October 2019 coming just two months ahead of a real life outbreak of; wait for it; a novel coronavirus, is eerily accurate in its future-seeing. To eerie a foresight to be comfortable actually.
Of course, we'll have to make do with some 'official' explanation, in 2035 or 2040, or whenever, when perhaps these 'knowledge gaps' and 'key questions to be answered' will no doubt somehow have been miraculously explained in a suitably convenient and low drama way.
I might not be around by then.
We need 'Jonathan Creek' now, although i doubt even he could solve this one.

[j_181]

Hmm... quite insulting to me, and to the intelligence, to suggest that I'm talking codswallop, simply because I don't have the necessary scientific, epidemiological background to easily understand these very 'cerebral' set of statistics, and data .

Then shut up and listen to people who do. Sorry you feel insulted, but if you don't like to feel that way, maybe don't offer your half-baked opinions on things that, by your own admission, you don't understand and have no desire to understand.

eerily accurate

It just isn't. It simulated an outbreak originating in Brazil. Not even the right continent.

[Wadebridge]

"AstraZeneca, Under Fire For Vaccine Safety, Releases Trial Blueprints"
External Link/Members Only.
Oh lordy!
It seems Oxford/ AstraZeneca's 'horizontal hope'; apologies for the Frank Bruno British boxing champion analogy there; to be first past the post in delivering an approved and safe Covid vaccine has recently been dealt a second knockout blow.
Now it transpires that a second patient had developed worrying inflammatory, neurological symptoms, also affecting the spinal cord, after a 2nd dose of the vaccine, which AstraZeneca; naughty boys and girls; have suppressed, and sat on mutely, for a while.
Meanwhile, although UK has dismissed these 'scare' stories, and already restarted its Oxford/ AstraZeneca vaccine trials, our 'fine weather friends' the Septic Tanks, across the big pond, have not yet done so.

[RedKettle]

"AstraZeneca, Under Fire For Vaccine Safety, Releases Trial Blueprints"
External Link/Members Only.
Oh lordy!
It seems Oxford/ AstraZeneca's 'horizontal hope'; apologies for the Frank Bruno British boxing champion analogy there; to be first past the post in delivering an approved and safe Covid vaccine has recently been dealt a second knockout blow.
Now it transpires that a second patient had developed worrying inflammatory, neurological symptoms, also affecting the spinal cord, after a 2nd dose of the vaccine, which AstraZeneca; naughty boys and girls; have suppressed, and sat on mutely, for a while.
Meanwhile, although UK has dismissed these 'scare' stories, and already restarted its Oxford/ AstraZeneca vaccine trials, our 'fine weather friends' the Septic Tanks, across the big pond, have not yet done so.

It is so clear that you have an agenda and ignore the facts, even in the story that you link to, in the hope that people just read your drivel and are suckered in.

As I and others have said to you before people being ill on these trails is routine and happens each time. It is also routine to pause and test as they have done before restarting.

Why have you said two knock out blows when the trails are still going on?  Clearly not a knock out. (In any case cannot have two as you would have been knocked out by the first.)

[Wadebridge]

It is so clear that you have an agenda and ignore the facts, even in the story that you link to, in the hope that people just read your drivel and are suckered in.
As I and others have said to you before people being ill on these trails is routine and happens each time. It is also routine to pause and test as they have done before restarting.

I don't know what this 'agenda' is you keep banging on about, but I'm really getting a bit annoyed about, and sick and tired of, your unfounded insinuations.
Yes of course I accept that, amongst human guinea-pigs in vaccine trials there are frequently some side-effects, but in the main these are normally mild illnesses; things like muscle aches, light headaches, or soreness around the needle injection site, for example, and such like.
The illnesses highlighted so far with the Oxford one, seem more like complications, rather than the perhaps more usual mild discomfort.
How it looks is also not helped, and is made all the more uncomfortable by what seems like AstraZeneca's suspicious attempt to suppress the story about the second patient.
And although Britain has restarted trials, the U.S. has not.
Is that because they are being more cautious, or is it that they view this new development, not as a mild illness, but as a serious complication?
It Is certainly not going to do anything to assuage the fears of those people who are nervous in the first place of receiving a covid vaccine.

[scutty brown]

I don't know what this 'agenda' is you keep banging on about, but I'm really getting a bit annoyed about, and sick and tired of, your unfounded insinuations.
Yes of course I accept that, amongst human guinea-pigs in vaccine trials there are frequently some side-effects, but in the main these are normally mild illnesses; things like muscle aches, light headaches, or soreness around the needle injection site, for example, and such like.
The illnesses highlighted so far with the Oxford one, seem more like complications, rather than the perhaps more usual mild discomfort.
How it looks is also not helped, and is made all the more uncomfortable by what seems like AstraZeneca's suspicious attempt to suppress the story about the second patient.
And although Britain has restarted trials, the U.S. has not.
Is that because they are being more cautious, or is it that they view this new development, not as a mild illness, but as a serious complication?
It Is certainly not going to do anything to assuage the fears of those people who are nervous in the first place of receiving a covid vaccine.

WTF are you rabbiting on about now?
There's no suppression of story. There have been two cases of transverse myelitis, one in a previously undiagnosed case of multiple sclerosis, the second still being investigated but reported elsewhere as recovered - but is quite likely to be due to another virus
As to the Americans not restarting trials, that's just their bureaucrats showing independence and giving their own industry a hidden advantage

You really do like building a turd mountain out of a  cowpat

[RedKettle]

I don't know what this 'agenda' is you keep banging on about, but I'm really getting a bit annoyed about, and sick and tired of, your unfounded insinuations.

Hardly unfounded - anyone just needs to read your posts!

As I recall Stapler used to get annoyed when challenged - or just ignore it when unable to answer it.  More similarities to your posting style, I wonder why......

[Wadebridge]

I am not Stapler for God's Sake. Stop insinuating that I am!

[scutty brown]

I am not Stapler for God's Sake. Stop insinuating that I am!

No, you're more stupid than Stapler and nowhere near as funny

[myothernameis]

I am not Stapler for God's Sake. Stop insinuating that I am!

Are you Staplers mum, by any chance

[j_181]

Are you Staplers mum, by any chance

Have you got it going on?

[JamesKW]

Dunno where you get that kind of crap from, India has one of  the lowest death rates from Corvid. The reason why is unclear, but it could be because India has a predominantly young population with relatively few fatties or diabetics or other risk factors.
As for buying vaccine from Russia, more likely they would make it under contract FOR Russia - India is in the top two or three in terms of global vaccine production by volume

Young population is one reason another is that they think they have achieved herd immunity in slum areas,where it has spread very quickly.If you havent got many over 80s your not going to get such a high proportion of deaths.

[JamesKW]

China has had no meaningful success in treatment of the infection. Their success has been in effective infection control, with rapid and strict lockdowns and compulsory mask-wearing.

Not necessarily,the Chinese closed down late in comparison to us,they can trace back the first death in the UK to December,so it started in China alot earlier than this.China has had these types of viruses before so there will be herd immunity.Some may argue that this is a new virus,but we have a different flu virus every year and it is only the same categories of the population die from flu every year so the rest of the population has some immunity.China may not be telling the full truth about their figures,I wouldnt put it all down to a Chinese government response.

[Doc Holliday]

..they can trace back the first death in the UK to December,

Can you link me to the evidence for that? Thanks.

[j_181]

so there will be herd immunity.

And for this.

[Wadebridge]

China is doubling down in the global push for a coronavirus vaccine
External Link/Members Only.

"The government efforts to aggressively develop and promote the vaccines are increasingly driven by political and foreign policy considerations," Huang said.
Aside from scientific prestige and national pride, a safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine could also have geopolitical implications.
The Chinese government has faced sharp criticism -- most notably from the US -- for its initial handling of the coronavirus outbreak. Its subsequent "mask diplomacy" -- an effort to ship medical supplies to countries struggling with Covid-19 -- also fueled suspicion that it was trying to change the coronavirus narrative.

Being first to provide the world with a vaccine would present China with an opportunity to shore up its global standing by positioning itself as a leader in fighting the pandemic, filling the void left by the US and consolidating its position as a true superpower.
It would also offer a degree of diplomatic leverage. China has promised a growing list of countries -- mostly developing nations which have helped Chinese companies carry out Phase 3 trials, including Beijing's strategic allies -- priority access to a Chinese vaccine if it's proven to be safe and effective.
But China's vaccine industry has a troubled record of safety. Over the past decade, China has been hit by a series of vaccine scandals.

The above breaking news story suggests that China might now be leading the race to be the first country to produce a viable, and usable, covid-19 vaccine.

In light of the published survey of western populations the other day that showed a pattern of meteoric rise in anti-Chinese sentiment in many 'western' countries; US, UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Australia etc. - no doubt a lot of it fuelled by Trump's 'China virus' rhetoric - it will be interesting to see how China's attempt to 'alter the narrative' plays out over time in some of the developing countries that are badly hit by coronavirus.

Floundering and downbeat Boris Johnson; at his wits end; has already provided a hint of coming over as the big 'sackcloth and ashes' boy, when he addressed the United Nations assembly recently with his speech, hinting that countries should 'share' their successes with the rest of the world in the global fight against the pandemic.

But, I suspect the reality for UK will be as a well known former US president once famously said "Britain, you can go to the back of the queue".

[scutty brown]

No sane government is going to trust a vaccine manufactured in China
There are too many problems with basic quality control issues with basic chinese made pharmaceuticals - the chances of them getting advanced stuff right is minimal

[Clitheroelad]

Well I was recently in hosp having my old chap seen to and one of the nurses was saying the current spike in cases is caused by a mutated version of Corona Virus, so the Oxford vaccine trial might be useless as it was designed to deal with the first, now almost defunct, strain.

[Doc Holliday]

Well I was recently in hosp having my old chap seen to and one of the nurses was saying the current spike in cases is caused by a mutated version of Corona Virus, so the Oxford vaccine trial might be useless as it was designed to deal with the first, now almost defunct, strain.

There is nothing worse than a nurse with a degree in Virology. Did she say all of that or was the bit in bold your extrapolation? Perhaps she should stick to bed baths 

External Link/Members Only

... or the 'heavy going' version External Link/Members Only

[scutty brown]

Well I was recently in hosp having my old chap seen to and one of the nurses was saying the current spike in cases is caused by a mutated version of Corona Virus, so the Oxford vaccine trial might be useless as it was designed to deal with the first, now almost defunct, strain.

Absolute bollocks

Its a theoretical possibility but its not happened yet

[Digby232]

We get a vast array of goods from China and I wouldn’t put it past boris to get a vaccine from there. That’s if one of his mates hasn’t got shares in a company that comes up with one .

[Digby232]

Pension age keeps going up as we’re playing with nature so people live well past their sell by date. I’d rather retire at 60 and live till 70 than retire at 67 and live on medication and in semi lockdown till 80.

[daviemac]

Pension age keeps going up as we’re playing with nature so people live well past their sell by date. I’d rather retire at 60 and live till 70 than retire at 67 and live on medication and in semi lockdown till 80.

That's what a lot of people say, until the get near to 70 that is then life on medication doesn't seem so bad after all.