We could all be in the shit - second wave alert ?

[shiptonlad]

I don't think the government will introduce another lockdown for economic reasons. I am in a vulnerable category and survival of the young and fittest is of some concern. A bit of me however says this is the way to go. I will just have to take my chance along with many others. Punting is low priority for me at the moment.

[wombat42]

I don't think the government will introduce another lockdown for economic reasons. I am in a vulnerable category and survival of the young and fittest is of some concern. A bit of me however says this is the way to go. I will just have to take my chance along with many others. Punting is low priority for me at the moment.

There is talk of local lockdowns anyway such as in Leicester.

[Doc Holliday]

There is talk of local lockdowns anyway such as in Leicester.

The Leicester spike was mentioned by Matt Hancock a week ago. We are told he is 'now worried' and is looking at the legislation to see if a local lockdown is possible? FFS shouldn't the legal situation have been defined months ago?

We are also told they are still "examining the data", but locally the council is saying we don't have accurate data and is trying to avoid any lockdown. So much for all working together?

There have apparently been around 650 confirmed new cases over the last two weeks in Leicester. This is more than the whole of the North West region. Lancashire (my neck of the woods) has been badly affected but is now down to a small trickle of daily confirmed cases and yet we are still pontificating and analysing Leicester in what on the face of it would seem a degree of exponential growth?

You simply don't get weeks to make decisions with this virus. Germany, for example, would be well on top of this by now.

[Wadebridge]

They haven't disguised anything .. the briefings were largely useless and going nowhere, but they have continued to publish the same daily data since they have stopped.
External Link/Members Only
They even produce the same slides for weekdays External Link/Members Only

I'm sorry but they have!
As I'm sure you are well aware, there is a huge discrepancy between the UK's official Covid-19 death toll; 43,514; which the government uses craftily disguised language "the number of deaths of people who have tested positive for coronavirus" to describe, and the suspected true number of deaths, which is the delayed 'excess deaths' figure, derived from data gathered from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The 'excess deaths' figure is estimated to be in excess of 65,000.
One thing the government; when being questioned about favourable international comparisons; is quick to point out is that Belgium has a worse death rate per capita of any European country. Why? Because Belgium has all along been reporting their true mortality rate, based on their 'excess deaths' calculation.

[Doc Holliday]

I'm sorry but they have!
As I'm sure you are well aware, there is a huge discrepancy between the UK's official Covid-19 death toll; 43,514; which the government uses craftily disguised language "the number of deaths of people who have tested positive for coronavirus" to describe, and the suspected true number of deaths, which is the delayed 'excess deaths' figure, derived from data gathered from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The 'excess deaths' figure is estimated to be in excess of 65,000.
One thing the government; when being questioned about favourable international comparisons; is quick to point out is that Belgium has a worse death rate per capita of any European country. Why? Because Belgium has all along been reporting their true mortality rate, based on their 'excess deaths' calculation.

Yes but that is a different discussion. What you said was this

The Tories have purposefully stopped the daily briefings, so that the inevitable and insidious rise in daily Covid-19 cases and deaths is disguised.

There is a valid argument that the data in the briefings has not been accurate, but not that they have stopped the briefings to hide the data as they are still producing the same daily data, just not live on air.

[Doc Holliday]

I couldn't help thinking you'd been somewhat robotic lately Doc, although thankfully not quite as much as Chris Whitty who obviously has an earlier variant which renders him entirely Anorak 

Yes he also has the microchip embedded, but his software was upgraded when he went down with Covid. This happened spontaneously as he came to close to a 5g mast.

He also won't be able to discuss this further with you and will ignore you

External Link/Members Only

[shiptonlad]

There are still girls working in Leicester some at inflated prices.

[Wadebridge]

There is a valid argument that the data in the briefings has not been accurate, but not that they have stopped the briefings to hide the data as they are still producing the same daily data, just not live on air.

I think, by and large, we are essentially in agreement on this, that they are disguising the figures.
Just how many members of the public do you think will continue to see and imbibe the Covid-19 statistical data reports if they are hidden away in a corner, only available to those who know where to click? Indeed, in some poorer households, people can't even click, even if they knew where to click.
No doubt now that Johnson has we obedient sheep where he wants us he'll be announcing that "the evidence is that the data continues to move favourably and we will have sent coronavirus packing within the twelve weeks before the children are back at school in September."
"Oh, and by the way, I'm making it compulsory to parents to send their children back to school in September.  And any parent who holds their child back is breaking the law".

[Doc Holliday]

They haven't disguised anything .. the briefings were largely useless and going nowhere, but they have continued to publish the same daily data since they have stopped.

External Link/Members Only

They even produce the same slides for weekdays External Link/Members Only

The stats have been flatlining (very small decrease) since early June, in particular the number of daily new hospital admissions. This trend has also recently been confirmed by the ONS. The figures are still at a far higher baseline than many of our European counterparts such as Germany, Italy and Spain which is highly risky but they are not, as yet, showing another rise.

@ Wadebridge ... looks like I need to backtrack on this. The daily slides linked to above have not been updated for yesterday and today? Slightly more suspicious is that the first link I provided, whilst most of the data is still being updated it has stopped updating the number of new hospital admissions .. in fact the data for this from 16th June onwards is missing? The number of patients in hospital and on ventilators is however updated.  External Link/Members Only

If I was of a suspicious nature .....................

[JamesKW]

To have a second wave should we not finish the first wave first?

Yes quite,I thought the idea was to have the second wave as soon as possible before the NHS gets busy in the Winter.

[JamesKW]

Once a vaccine is introduce that will be great, I think most people with a brain would agree on its introduction

Even if it is, everyone in the World wants it so its going to take a while to get everyone vaccined up.

[Adoniron]

Even if it is, everyone in the World wants it so its going to take a while to get everyone vaccined up.

Presumably the anti-vaxxers won't want it, or those who have been saying coronavirus is no worse than a bad cold and only affects the old and those who are already ill.

[daviemac]

Even if it is, everyone in the World wants it so its going to take a while to get everyone vaccined up.

I don't.   

[tightfoot69]

Even though we have handled it terribly I don’t understand how we are still recording so many more deaths than other similar sized European nations. I am pretty sure they are not counting in the same way we are.

[Kev40ish]

Even though we have handled it terribly I don’t understand how we are still recording so many more deaths than other similar sized European nations. I am pretty sure they are not counting in the same way we are.

We will see in the final count, but it does look like too little too late..

[scutty brown]

Even though we have handled it terribly I don’t understand how we are still recording so many more deaths than other similar sized European nations. I am pretty sure they are not counting in the same way we are.

remember that we are undercounting as only confirmed diagnosed cases get recorded

[Digby232]

The vast majority off us now can’t lockdown as got no money! It’s a case of sorry you’ve got to go out now or lose everything you’ve ever worked for. Which could happen in the long run anyway as going to be mass redundancies and a depression.

[Digby232]

Our figures are way above other nations as more are dead or this government can’t even count right

[JamesKW]

The vast majority off us now can’t lockdown as got no money! It’s a case of sorry you’ve got to go out now or lose everything you’ve ever worked for. Which could happen in the long run anyway as going to be mass redundancies and a depression.

Yes,thats the biggest danger,when you get mass redundanies people start to look around for someone to blame and they dont always think logically.People are more likley to vote for so called saviours which could be extreme parties.

[kippydon]

i just it is a matter of time that second wave will hit the England, not sure about the Scotland , wales , NI , i just think they have handled the pandemic slightly better than this shower we have in Westminster

[Digby232]

England is far more populated than Scotland, Wales and Ireland! We have far mor extended families living together so we have got real problems. See the Leicester council official blaming the government for not translating  the isolation advice into enough languages for our ethnic minorities. Always passing the blame for people basically just not caring, bothering or taking it seriously!

[king tarzan]

Yes,thats the biggest danger,when you get mass redundanies people start to look around for someone to blame and they dont always think logically.People are more likley to vote for so called saviours which could be extreme parties.

extremely obvious that a foreign country's filthy eating habits are to blame for this global pandemic...
they have been named and shamed by the most powerful outspoken leader on earth..
And for his honesty he gets called a xenophobic...

[whiskyfan]

extremely obvious that a foreign country's filthy eating habits are to blame for this global pandemic...
they have been named and shamed by the most powerful outspoken leader on earth..
And for his honesty he gets called a xenophobic...

True, McDonald's is pretty gross.

[David1970]

i just it is a matter of time that second wave will hit the England, not sure about the Scotland , wales , NI , i just think they have handled the pandemic slightly better than this shower we have in Westminster

Really depends on how you look at it and what the governments priorities are. England it’s economic open everything as soon as they can to get the economy going, in Scotland the priority seems to be to wipe out the virus first. Who is correct will depend if there is a second spike.
Best country in dealing with it seems to be New Zealand, started early, strict, opened up slowly after the virus was subdued.

[king tarzan]

Really depends on how you look at it and what the governments priorities are. England it’s economic open everything as soon as they can to get the economy going, in Scotland the priority seems to be to wipe out the virus first. Who is correct will depend if there is a second spike.
Best country in dealing with it seems to be New Zealand, started early, strict, opened up slowly after the virus was subdued.

England has BULLDOG SPIRIT we will get through this 

[LLPunting]

extremely obvious that a foreign country's filthy eating habits are to blame for this global pandemic...
they have been named and shamed by the most powerful outspoken leader on earth..
And for his honesty he gets called a xenophobic...

Aren't your origins in a country that ate local animal life?

[whiskyfan]

England has BULLDOG SPIRIT we will get through this 

Illustrated perfectly by the national toilet paper shortage when the bulldog shit itself.

[king tarzan]

Illustrated perfectly by the national toilet paper shortage when the bulldog shit itself.

puppies always do 

[Wadebridge]

@ Wadebridge ... looks like I need to backtrack on this. The daily slides linked to above have not been updated for yesterday and today? Slightly more suspicious is that the first link I provided, whilst most of the data is still being updated it has stopped updating the number of new hospital admissions .. in fact the data for this from 16th June onwards is missing? The number of patients in hospital and on ventilators is however updated.  External Link/Members Only
If I was of a suspicious nature .....................

This is a worrying trend. The potential consequences are immense.
We already know that NI (Foster) and Scotland (Sturgeon) are listening to and following their scientists advice, and are genuinely pursuing a strategy of trying to drive out and extinguish the virus. I think they will reap the significant rewards of this standpoint later in the future, with the increased levels of trust the public will have in their running of the country.
By contrast, Johnson and Westminster's 'herd immunity' plan seems to be: Open up the economy to save the Tory free-market machine; Open up the pubs and let the cattle classes imbibe copious amounts of alcohol to drown their sorrows, help take their minds off the badly handled crisis.
Meanwhile, we'll conceal the gravity of these desperate times with constant deceit; under-reporting of the deaths and infections; and by plugging optimism, served perfectly by our flippant use of short, and to-the-point, soundbite language. How about the 3-syllable "whack-a-mole". That's perfect!
But this is a dangerous policy route. Because to defeat this virus, and return to the normal life we all crave, will require the public to buy in to the idea of being responsible people, and most of all, to trust in its government as being competent, caring people. Even during the times when they might need to take unpopular decisions. Alas I feel that for majority of people; maybe 75%; that needed trust has evaporated, for a long, long time, if not forever.
The detached Westminster bubble of brazen liars and incompetents continue to rake in their £74,000 per year (backbenchers), six-figures if on front-bench, whilst continuing to demonstrate that they couldn't even tie their own f***ing shoelaces.
Meanwhile the British public remain anxious about their future; their job prospects; what quality of life will be left for them, when the furlough scheme ends in October.

[kippydon]

This is a worrying trend. The potential consequences are immense.
We already know that NI (Foster) and Scotland (Sturgeon) are listening to and following their scientists advice, and are genuinely pursuing a strategy of trying to drive out and extinguish the virus. I think they will reap the significant rewards of this standpoint later in the future, with the increased levels of trust the public will have in their running of the country.
By contrast, Johnson and Westminster's 'herd immunity' plan seems to be: Open up the economy to save the Tory free-market machine; Open up the pubs and let the cattle classes imbibe copious amounts of alcohol to drown their sorrows, help take their minds off the badly handled crisis.
Meanwhile, we'll conceal the gravity of these desperate times with constant deceit; under-reporting of the deaths and infections; and by plugging optimism, served perfectly by our flippant use of short, and to-the-point, soundbite language. How about the 3-syllable "whack-a-mole". That's perfect!
But this is a dangerous policy route. Because to defeat this virus, and return to the normal life we all crave, will require the public to buy in to the idea of being responsible people, and most of all, to trust in its government as being competent, caring people. Even during the times when they might need to take unpopular decisions. Alas I feel that for majority of people; maybe 75%; that needed trust has evaporated, for a long, long time, if not forever.
The detached Westminster bubble of brazen liars and incompetents continue to rake in their £74,000 per year (backbenchers), six-figures if on front-bench, whilst continuing to demonstrate that they couldn't even tie their own f***ing shoelaces.
Meanwhile the British public remain anxious about their future; their job prospects; what quality of life will be left for them, when the furlough scheme ends in October.

I agreed, but  i think people have past caring and listen to this woeful government , due to that twat cummings  and now Johnsons father

what did people expect from this inept lying tories ,  this must be the worst government every, Scotland and Northern ireland , think may have calculated there response just right

we just have a dosey PM who likes to hide in fridges

[JamesKW]

Protests,riots,illegal raves etc. were predictable at the start of the lockdown,they would have of happened whatever Cummings did.No one knows which country has the right response to this,if countries enforce the lockdown more there is no immunity for the second or third coming (you cant keep locking down the economy),you cant wait for everyone to be vaccined,this will take for ever.

[Wadebridge]

No one knows which country has the right response to this,if countries enforce the lockdown more there is no immunity for the second or third coming (you cant keep locking down the economy),you cant wait for everyone to be vaccined,this will take for ever.

This statement is nonsensical.
Novel coronavirus-19 is a deadly pathogen. The priority of all countries handling the pandemic should've been coordinate and cooperate. Slowly extinguish the virus by driving down R to 0.1, then 0.01, then 0.001, then 0.
This is what the international community did with the deadly Ebola outbreak in 2016 (easier to do mind) and what China did with the extremely insidious pneumonic plague outbreak similarly a few years back.
With deadly pathogens like Ebola and pneumonic plague you simply cannot afford to talk in terms of 2nd comings and 3rd comings, and such language. It ought to have been the same with CoViD-19.
But it's too late now. Arrogant countries like USA, Brazil, and UK (and their gung-ho governments) have put paid to that.
Johnson and his cronies can't even reach solidarity and agreement with his devolved countries counterparts.

[boffin]

Remember this is the man that drove 60 miles to test eyes down a public road, endangering other drives and his family.
Not the brightest star in the galaxy, or he could just be a low life lying cunt.

If I remember correctly he had his optician in the car with him to ensure that the test was correctly executed, his optician turned out to be his 4 year old son. To drive your car to test your eyes is bad enough but to put your child at risk is unthinkable, unless of course you are the untouchable demi god named D Cummings 

[Jonestown]

I routinely track the reported new cases for three or four areas where I have nearest and dearest, and the numbers, after have been steadily declining week on week, have all, in the last week shot up very significantly - the second wave may be closer than its supposed.

As an example, the London borough of Barnet has gone from 1319 cases last Wednesday 1st July, to 1587 yesterday 6th July.

[Jonestown]

I routinely track the reported new cases for three or four areas where I have nearest and dearest, and the numbers, after have been steadily declining week on week, have all, in the last week shot up very significantly - the second wave may be closer than its supposed.

As an example, the London borough of Barnet has gone from 1319 cases last Wednesday 1st July, to 1587 yesterday 6th July.

Ah, no need to panic, just trust Boris & Matt.

"Numbers of lab-confirmed positive cases throughout this website (national, regional and local authority level) now include those identified by testing in all settings (pillars 1 and 2). Due to this change many cases previously not attributed to any area are now included in area totals. This is not a recent surge in cases – the cases now being reported occurred from April onwards."

[LLPunting]

Ah, no need to panic, just trust Boris & Matt.

"Numbers of lab-confirmed positive cases throughout this website (national, regional and local authority level) now include those identified by testing in all settings (pillars 1 and 2). Due to this change many cases previously not attributed to any area are now included in area totals. This is not a recent surge in cases – the cases now being reported occurred from April onwards."

Errmmm.
What's the likelihood someone is tested more than once in a week?
An uptick in numbers means more people identified in the area as carrying, so unless they're saying that the newly included group account for more this week than the difference between last week's figure without and this week's figure with, that means you do have an uptick.  Unless they publish the pillars separately you can't identify if the trend is up or down in either stream and what that means for the community.
Without the clarification I'd say they're masking because a genuine downturn in cases would be something to make a great point of.
Hardly that reassuring.

If you have the time both these interviews on BBC Click's YouTube channel are worth watching:
External Link/Members Only
External Link/Members Only

[Kev40ish]

To be honest the only person I trust is Dr Chris Smith “the naked scientist” on the BBC.
He seems to be open and honest about what is occurring and understands the need to help the public understand the risks involved

[Chorley]

To be honest the only person I trust is Dr Chris Smith “the naked scientist” on the BBC.
He seems to be open and honest about what is occurring and understands the need to help the public understand the risks involved

Or Professor VanTan who always went off message and then was mysteriously absent from the press conferences shortly after. 

[Ahalfa Carling]

ha, this just got shared on a mate's facey page

"I normally reserve the term "Cockwomble" for British politicians, but in this case I am using it for Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro, who has contracted Coronavirus after months of dismissing it as a "Minor" inconvenience and not wearing any PPE.

I hope that he is not too ill (but ill enough) and that he makes a recovery."

[Chorley]

ha, this just got shared on a mate's facey page

"I normally reserve the term "Cockwomble" for British politicians, but in this case I am using it for Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro, who has contracted Coronavirus after months of dismissing it as a "Minor" inconvenience and not wearing any PPE.

I hope that he is not too ill (but ill enough) and that he makes a recover opy."

I saw that as breaking news on Sky and burst out laughing. Serves the arrogant, ignorant prick right. 

[LLPunting]

I saw that as breaking news on Sky and burst out laughing. Serves the arrogant, ignorant prick right. 

The shame will be that he makes a full recovery and doesn't even suffer as much as Boris, probably faking it to feed his narrative that it's not serious.

[winkywanky]

That did enter my mind too.

[winkywanky]

You kinda hope he has got it, and he gets it bad enough to require ITU care and he gets a bit of a scare from it.

[allroadboy]

Ah, no need to panic, just trust Boris & Matt.

"Numbers of lab-confirmed positive cases throughout this website (national, regional and local authority level) now include those identified by testing in all settings (pillars 1 and 2). Due to this change many cases previously not attributed to any area are now included in area totals. This is not a recent surge in cases – the cases now being reported occurred from April onwards."

and this from BBC figures as I also crapped myself at the upturn !
Public Health England figures on coronavirus cases were updated on 2 July to include people tested in the wider community, as well as hospitals and healthcare workers, causing the numbers to increase sharply

[wombat42]

Not looking good
External Link/Members Only

[tightfoot69]

Not looking good
External Link/Members Only

It looks bad but a lot of the deaths reported in all settings are care home deaths from weeks ago. I know the care home situation has been a disgrace but these lagging figures can make things look worse than it is.

Hospital deaths and admissions in England are still steadily coming down. We need to keep an eye on infections though. Hopefully they don’t go creeping to the thousand mark again on a daily basis and we can get them down to the low hundreds.

[Adoniron]

Infection rate in the community i.e. outside care homes and hospitals is about 1 in 3500 so we are on top of it. The question is can we keep on top? Let's see where we are in another couple of weeks and what effect reopening pubs etc has had.

[Spencer Fobby]

The propaganda machine is whipping up the fear just in case we were beginning to feel the possibility of returning to normal: External Link/Members Only

However, within that article we see that there are 530 new cases today.   

[lostandfound]

The propaganda machine is whipping up the fear just in case we were beginning to feel the possibility of returning to normal: External Link/Members Only

However, within that article we see that there are 530 new cases today.   

I would like to reply but as we would be discussing national policy, IMO we would be / are crossing over into politics.

[hullad]

The wearing of face masks in shops is on the way.

Why does it take a bloody week to implement it, late to the game yet again. You announce it today implement tomorrow at the latest it's not difficult is it.

As for a second eave I have just seen a forecast for next Jan/Feb could be 120,000 deaths in hospitals alone. More lock downs and more disruption no doubt some on here will argue against it. When are they going to realise herd immunity does not work with this virus, immunity is limited to perhaps as little as three months. I think we will get a vaccine in time and it may need toppling up regular till we eradicate the disease completely.

External Link/Members Only