The continuing 'lockdown' nonsense in the media

[Chorley]

Maybe you could read your own posts and be a bit more humble, you predicted riots as we wouldn't be able to bury our loved ones , food shortages, mass graves, and most recently and most absurdly, you said that millions of young people have underlying issues, you are a silly old man, who should stick to talking about porn.

Well that told You WW. 

[winkywanky]

Fed up with the Coronavirus-deniers, FFS.

Blood boiling now, so checking out 

[willie loman]

OK, I couldn't resist:

FOUR million people in the UK with diabetes.

SEVEN POINT FOUR million people in the UK with heart and ciculatory disease.

EIGHT MILLION people in the UK suffer from asthma.

Around TWO MILLION people in the UK living with cancer.

You specifically referred to millions of young people . No of casualties under 45 is very low.

[winkywanky]

I don't remember specifying 'young people', I'll let you find that  .

Even if we were talking about people under 18, there'd still be well over a million.

And you still haven't recognised how many deaths there would have been had there not been Lockdown.

And you talk about me not being 'humble'? FFS 

[willie loman]

Fed up with the Coronavirus-deniers, FFS.

Blood boiling now, so checking out 

No one is denying the virus, just the appropriate policy, much talk of Churchill in the media, but neither he or De Gaulle,  would have taken their country over a cliff for so little.

[Spencer Fobby]

As well as those who are chafing against the lockdown there will be those who are reluctant to see restrictions lifted until they are convinced the epidemic is under control, and the "R" well below 1.

People are welcome to self isolate and continue to protect themselves as much as they like.
The time has come to realise the wider dangers to mental health, the economy and the future of our country is outweighing a response that is solely about creating herd immunity more slowly so that our infrastructure is not overwhelmed.

[donnybob]

I am in lockdown and my wife is working from home, I have been doing a lot of work in the garden and going out ONCE a week to one supermarket for shopping.
this week I left the house to drive to someones house to pick up some stuff for the garden that I had bought of gumtree
I saw no one as he had left them in his drive and the only time I left the car was to pick them up,
my wife went spare when I got back, thinking I was A) going to die B) get prosecuted for non essential travel.

[willie loman]

I don't remember specifying 'young people', I'll let you find that  .

Even if we were talking about people under 18, there'd still be well over a million.

And you still haven't recognised how many deaths there would have been had there not been Lockdown.

And you talk about me not being 'humble'? FFS 

The no of casualties hasn't reached the hundreds of thousands anywhere in Europe, regardless of what the govt did as regards lockdown, as you well know.

[winkywanky]

No one is denying the virus, just the appropriate policy, much talk of Churchill in the media, but neither he or De Gaulle,  would have taken their country over a cliff for so little.

You deny the seriousness of it (the flu, a cold), you deny a Lockdown was necessary to stop wholesale, uncontrollable deaths and an overrun NHS.

What has any of this got to do with the media, just because you personally don't like how the media is portraying it?

Your govt and virtually every scientist in the country is telling us we needed Lockdown to stop horrific levels of death, perhaps YOU would be so humble as to recognise you know JACKSHIT compared with them?

[winkywanky]

The no of casualties hasn't reached the hundreds of thousands anywhere in Europe, regardless of what the govt did as regards lockdown, as you well know.

EVERY country has had some kind of Lockdown. EVERY country has different demographics and factors at play.

This has been discussed on here at length, and not by me.

You have your head so far up your arse you can't even see daylight.

[winkywanky]

Proven by the fact that even with a hard Lockdown in the UK, we will still probably have had over 40,000 deaths in the near future, possibly many more beyond that.

It clearly would have been well into the 100,000s without Lockdown.

And you reckon we didn't need it? FFS.

[willie loman]

You deny the seriousness of it (the flu, a cold), you deny a Lockdown was necessary to stop wholesale, uncontrollable deaths and an overrun NHS.

What has any of this got to do with the media, just because you personally don't like how the media is portraying it?

Your govt and virtually every scientist in the country is telling us we needed Lockdown to stop horrific levels of death, perhaps YOU would be so humble as to recognise you know JACKSHIT compared with them?

You know full well that from day one there has been significant dissidence from scientists and assorted experts about govt policy, you pay your money and take your choice, I was a virus sceptic, lockdown dissident de premier heure.

[winkywanky]

Buy yourself a beret and and a soapbox and go and stand outside Parliament.

You'll need to get used to the smell of rotten eggs.

[Doc Holliday]

Quite a few dissidents now posting about the virus. 4 weeks ago, I was seen as some kind of sociopathic nutcase for questioning the policy. I was wrong about the no of deaths, I assumed it would be under 20,000, but no one had grasped then that ethnicity and weight would be crucial factors.

This is what you posted you reckoned a few hundred over 12 months?

I assume the number will over say 12 months will be 5-10 thousand max, strip out those over 70, and those with underlying health problems, the no whose direct cause of death is actually the virus, probably low hundreds. We will see who is right soon enough, happy to accept  I am wrong.

[willie loman]

This is what you posted you reckoned a few hundred over 12 months?

I accepted I was wrong, and gave the reasons, no one was talking about obesity or crucially ethnicity then, you incidentally were talking about 250, 000, hospital admissions?

[willie loman]

This is what you posted you reckoned a few hundred over 12 months?

The no of deaths of those under 45 is still very low, as a stats buff like you could confirm. The debate doesn't change,  have we made the right decision ?

[Doc Holliday]

I accepted I was wrong, and gave the reasons, no one was talking about obesity or crucially ethnicity then, you incidentally were talking about 250, 000, hospital admissions?

Nice try but obesity and ethnicity were known about in March together with all the other factors that you dismissed as 'needing to be stripped out' such as being over 70.

I was actually talking about a worst case scenario of potentially 2 million hospital admissions and 250K deaths if an exponential rise continued over a short space of time and as a result of the herd immunity approach. We will of course never know because fortunately we went into lockdown.

Over 12 months we may well yet see an excess mortality of 100K in the UK?

[Doc Holliday]

The no of deaths of those under 45 is still very low, as a stats buff like you could confirm.

Thankfully it certainly is low especially under 20s. Had this been killing children at the same rate God knows what the future would be looking like?

The debate doesn't change,  have we made the right decision ?

Assuming you mean lockdown yes it was the right decision and was the only option for the majority of countries apart from maybe South Korea who were well prepared and succeeded with containment.  We are now at the stage of coming out of lockdown and I am reasonably confident it can be done and will be successful over the next few months. But there will continue to be hospital admissions and significant deaths but at a controlled rate.

[willie loman]

Thankfully it certainly is low especially under 20s. Had this been killing children at the same rate God knows what the future would be looking like?

Assuming you mean lockdown yes it was the right decision and was the only option for the majority of countries apart from maybe South Korea who were well prepared and succeeded with containment.  We are now at the stage of coming out of lockdown and I am reasonably confident it can be done and will be successful over the next few months. But there will continue to be hospital admissions and significant deaths but at a controlled rate.

Fair enough , your patience and manners are appreciated.

[King Nuts]

When are the media going to come into the real world

The short answer is 'never'. Most commentators are the same as those in the bloated, cossetted State sector. They've kept their jobs and their salaries, and they genuinely have no idea how things are for all those who are struggling right now.

It's very similar to 2016, in that Remainers, largely consisting of the regulation-loving, urban, technocratic classes were pitted against Leavers, who were mostly people who were happy to take their chances in the real world, because they valued freedom and abhorred top-down rules from a tax-munching, EU dominated State.

As things have been unfolding, we've come to see a similar debate. The elites love the idea of control and have an inherent distrust of the notion of personal freedom, and are pitted against the rest of us who need to get our lives back.

[cunningman]

Over 12 months we may well yet see an excess mortality of 100K in the UK?

The number sounds high, but if we look at it as an average curtailment of life expectancy, what does it look like?

I think we will also have to look at the death rate over years where we have CV and no vaccine, and with CV and post vaccine application - we may see that there is a uplift now in deaths of people susceptible, but none of them were immortal and it just brings deaths forward.  Or the Vac doesn't work and our life expectancy is reduced.  Ultimately the number of deaths is related to the population size, with a delay.  You don't need to tweak that delay downwards very much to get a lot of excess deaths in the short and medium terms.

[Chorley]

The short answer is 'never'. Most commentators are the same as those in the bloated, cossetted State sector. They've kept their jobs and their salaries, and they genuinely have no idea how things are for all those who are struggling right now.

It's very similar to 2016, in that Remainers, largely consisting of the regulation-loving, urban, technocratic classes were pitted against Leavers, who were mostly people who were happy to take their chances in the real world, because they valued freedom and abhorred top-down rules from a tax-munching, EU dominated State.

As things have been unfolding, we've come to see a similar debate. The elites love the idea of control and have an inherent distrust of the notion of personal freedom, and are pitted against the rest of us who need to get our lives back.

Absolutely this.
Particularly when you realise the Oxbridge mafia takeover of media, politics and political media management which is a big fuck off merry go round of posh twats who are all mates and help each other get jobs when they inevitably fuck up being whatever they were doing previously 

[Doc Holliday]

The number sounds high, but if we look at it as an average curtailment of life expectancy, what does it look like?

I think we will also have to look at the death rate over years where we have CV and no vaccine, and with CV and post vaccine application - we may see that there is a uplift now in deaths of people susceptible, but none of them were immortal and it just brings deaths forward.  Or the Vac doesn't work and our life expectancy is reduced.  Ultimately the number of deaths is related to the population size, with a delay.  You don't need to tweak that delay downwards very much to get a lot of excess deaths in the short and medium terms.

I agree with all of that and yes we will only know retrospectively some years down the line. So many variables and unknowns ... will we have an effective vaccine etc, not to mention the huge spectrum of host response and susceptibility to this virus.

Then assuming we control it one way or another over the next two years and just as we are looking to see if the data 'balances out' as you describe ... along comes another pandemic and corrupts the data. 

[Doc Holliday]

Fair enough , your patience and manners are appreciated.

 

There is one footnote though with you being in Scotland where the 'R' value is still thought to be possibly around 0.9 which leaves little room for manoeuvre. London is in the best position at around 0.5 to proceed asap.

The government seem determined to bring everyone out at the same time, but I'm not sure Scotland is ready just yet or indeed parts of the North of England? The process must commence soon though.

[smiths]

In my area today has been by far the busiest on the roads for weeks, almost back to normal and like NIK loads of temporary traffic works everywhere with blokes doing what they usually do, sitting in their vans reading the paper.

Also far more people in groups and especially large groups, it was evident to me lockdown has finished in these peoples view, also the parks I drove past were quite full again full of groups of people. I needed some bread so went to a Sainsburys local, I haven't been in a big supermarket yet since lockdown and that was in fact virtually empty. The other striking thing today to me was far less people wearing face masks, I can only assume some think the virus is over, I most certainly am not at all convinced about that.

[lostandfound]

People are welcome to self isolate and continue to protect themselves as much as they like.
The time has come to realise the wider dangers to mental health, the economy and the future of our country is outweighing a response that is solely about creating herd immunity more slowly so that our infrastructure is not overwhelmed.

Wishful thinking my friend. There will be no herd immunity until there's a vaccine, as in a proven and widely available vaccine, and until there is both a vaccine, AND effective treatment for those with Covid, we are going to be either in lockdown, or trying not to have to go into lockdown again.

[Spencer Fobby]

Wishful thinking my friend. There will be no herd immunity until there's a vaccine, as in a proven and widely available vaccine, and until there is both a vaccine, AND effective treatment for those with Covid, we are going to be either in lockdown, or trying not to have to go into lockdown again.

It is entirely possible that 50% of the population have already been exposed to covid 19 according to Sunetra Gupta (External Link/Members Only).  Her estimate was made on March 19.
 
The worst effects of the virus will be over long before the vaccine and treatment are readily available.  By that point what shape will this country be in if we don't relax lockdown?

Herd immunity can happen in two ways:

a) Many people contract the disease and in time build up an immune response to it (natural immunity).
b) Many people are vaccinated against the disease to achieve immunity.

It follows that the likeliest way to achieve herd immunity will through method a) given how close we may already be.  And that relaxing the lockdown will speed this process up once more.  At the same time, we have to reckon with the devastation on the economy and general health of society by continuing a practice that is destroying businesses, destroying livelihoods, destroying families (check the spike in divorces and separations immediately following lockdown lifting in Wuhan).

You are right, it is wishful thinking. I wish we could begin to act rationally and pragmatically for the sake of the overall health of our country. Because lockdown is no longer the rational way forward.

[The Film Director]

There is one footnote though with you being in Scotland where the 'R' value is still thought to be possibly around 0.9 which leaves little room for manoeuvre. London is in the best position at around 0.5 to proceed asap.

Genuine question - I was surprised to hear them say this at the briefing given the comparison between London and Scotland re. population density and demographics.  Is this simply down to how effective the lockdown has been in each case?

[lostandfound]

It is entirely possible that 50% of the population have already been exposed to covid 19 according to Sunetra Gupta (External Link/Members Only).  Her estimate was made on March 19.
 
The worst effects of the virus will be over long before the vaccine and treatment are readily available.  By that point what shape will this country be in if we don't relax lockdown?

Herd immunity can happen in two ways:

a) Many people contract the disease and in time build up an immune response to it (natural immunity).
b) Many people are vaccinated against the disease to achieve immunity.

It follows that the likeliest way to achieve herd immunity will through method a) given how close we may already be.  And that relaxing the lockdown will speed this process up once more.  At the same time, we have to reckon with the devastation on the economy and general health of society by continuing a practice that is destroying businesses, destroying livelihoods, destroying families (check the spike in divorces and separations immediately following lockdown lifting in Wuhan).

You are right, it is wishful thinking. I wish we could begin to act rationally and pragmatically for the sake of the overall health of our country. Because lockdown is no longer the rational way forward.

Expert reaction to the Oxford study is that it makes too many assumptions based on too little data, and using too simplistic a model. Aka wishful thinking.

External Link/Members Only

Prof James Wood, Head of Department of Veterinary Medicine, and researcher in Infection dynamics and control of diseases -
"The results simply should be used to emphasise the need to conduct serological studies in areas where epidemic spread has occurred to determine what is needed in the way of ongoing controls, rather than to infer that large proportions of the populations are already infected.  The current version of the paper does substantially over-speculate and is open to gross over interpretation by others.”

Prof Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, University of East Anglia -
 “Personally, I accept that this model might well generate matches with the observed epidemic trajectories to date, but in my view it should not be given much credibility and should certainly not influence choice of strategies for mitigating the spread of Covid19 or predicting the ultimate size of the epidemic in the UK should it have been left to run its course.”

Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading -
“We need to know much more about the immunology of this virus before we make such confident predictions. It was just over a week ago we were being told that infecting around 60% of the population would be enough to confer herd immunity which would protect everyone else so much more research needs to be done to carefully assess whether these predictions are correct and what level of immunity people have once they have been infected and recovered from the virus.”

I can only repeat what I've already said. Life as we knew it just a couple of months ago is not going to return for the foreseeable future, until vaccine and treatments are widely available. Along with that there is going to be a massive reduction in economic activity compared to BC (before coronavirus).

 

[NIK]

Genuine question - I was surprised to hear them say this at the briefing given the comparison between London and Scotland re. population density and demographics.  Is this simply down to how effective the lockdown has been in each case?

It’s down to population density. More people live in London than the whole of fucking Scotland, including thousands of Scots.
I wonder if they get independence - I wish they would then maybe we would see less of Nicola fucking Sturgeon - will they go back home? 

[The Film Director]

It’s down to population density. More people live in London than the whole of fucking Scotland, including thousands of Scots.
I wonder if they get independence - I wish they would then maybe we would see less of Nicola fucking Sturgeon - will they go back home? 

Well, why has London the LOWER reproduction rate for the virus R - doesn't make sense?

[Strawberry]

Yet here in a low population density we have very high rates, however plenty of tales of travellers returning from Italy going to work in school and whatever social life, or in one case a very local pub quiz, infecting many (word of mouth is 10 at the quiz) in an area of higher age bracket = several immediate deaths not to mention how many they infected.

[Blackpool Rock]

Well, why has London the LOWER reproduction rate for the virus R - doesn't make sense?

I was under the impression that while Scotland has a relatively small population in comparison to the land mass that that population is mainly concentrated in certain areas such as Glasgow and Edinburgh therefore the population density is concentrated

[Blackpool Rock]

No one is denying the virus, just the appropriate policy, much talk of Churchill in the media, but neither he or De Gaulle,  would have taken their country over a cliff for so little.

I wouldn't say the lockdown was for so little, it was predicted that there could be 500K deaths in the UK if CV19 was simply allowed to rip through the population and take it's natural course.
Compare that to WW2 and Britain including crown colonies had just under 450K deaths of which around 67K were civilian, I know a week or so ago it was reported that the death rate in London was higher than during the Blitz

[Strawberry]

I wouldn't say the lockdown was for so little, it was predicted that there could be 500K deaths in the UK if CV19 was simply allowed to rip through the population and take it's natural course.
Compare that to WW2 and Britain including crown colonies had just under 450K deaths of which around 67K were civilian, I know a week or so ago it was reported that the death rate in London was higher than during the Blitz

I find it annoying when people say "Well hardly anyone has died compared to whatever other disease, illness, cause of death", well yes probably because we have lockdown 

[Spencer Fobby]

I wouldn't say the lockdown was for so little, it was predicted that there could be 500K deaths in the UK if CV19 was simply allowed to rip through the population and take it's natural course.
Compare that to WW2 and Britain including crown colonies had just under 450K deaths of which around 67K were civilian, I know a week or so ago it was reported that the death rate in London was higher than during the Blitz

That was Neil Ferguson’s model that predicted that. The results from his previous modelling have shown his modelling tends to wildly overestimate. Meanwhile his behaviour shows that he doesn’t feel the virus is particularly dangerous. He got it. Gave it to colleagues and members of the cabinet. And when recovered, got his mistress round in a flagrant breach of the rules.

[The Film Director]

The results from his previous modelling have shown his modelling tends to wildly overestimate.

What did he estimate re. after the lockdown?  I suspect his estimate (if he made one) will be an underestimate.

[Blackpool Rock]

That was Neil Ferguson’s model that predicted that. The results from his previous modelling have shown his modelling tends to wildly overestimate. Meanwhile his behaviour shows that he doesn’t feel the virus is particularly dangerous. He got it. Gave it to colleagues and members of the cabinet. And when recovered, got his mistress round in a flagrant breach of the rules.

So you're saying that the Govt used information from someone whose models are known to be wildly inaccurate compared to other people in the same field, sorry but that doesn't make sense why they would do that 

[Spencer Fobby]

So you're saying that the Govt used information from someone whose models are known to be wildly inaccurate compared to other people in the same field, sorry but that doesn't make sense why they would do that 

Nobody ever got fired for being too cautious. Look up the history of the foot and mouth mass culling that he was responsible for.  Now widely seen as an overreaction. And SARS. 

[Blackpool Rock]

Nobody ever got fired for being too cautious. Look up the history of the foot and mouth mass culling that he was responsible for.  Now widely seen as an overreaction. And SARS.

Yeah it's a bit damned if you do and damned if you don't though.
Sars, Mers and swine flu all never really came to anything in this country but it was being hyped up in the media, you then end up with the boy who cried wolf scenario where people including me automatically think about CV19 that it won't come to anything.
Apart from this time it actually is a bad one

[Spencer Fobby]

No one sane would dispute that covid19 is a dangerous virus.  It is highly contagious.  It kills.  But fortunately it does not kill everyone - if fact far from it.  The death rate, when the figures are finally able to be accurately studied, is likely to be far lower than originally feared. 
Let's keep our elderly safe, because they are the ones most at risk. But the blunt tool of entire lockdown for all...?

[Doc Holliday]

But the blunt tool of entire lockdown for all...?

There was no other option but you are right it has to end.

Genuine question - I was surprised to hear them say this at the briefing given the comparison between London and Scotland re. population density and demographics.  Is this simply down to how effective the lockdown has been in each case?

As Matt Hancock would say "Thank you Film Director that is a incredibly important question" then he would babble on about something he has no understanding of instead of referring it to the 'experts', who are under instructions not to say too much ..... if indeed they know the answers.

Scotland like many other areas is at least a week behind London. They do have centres of high density population such as Glasgow but that probably doesn't fully explain it. They do however have a particular problem with care homes. The number of hospital admissions and therefore deaths has fallen, though not I think at the same rate as south of the border? However the latest deaths in Scotland's care homes now slightly exceed those in hospitals and are around 40% of the overall total.

The government when asked are consistently refusing to give estimated R values for hospitals and care homes although the Jolly Green Giant from the ONS at yesterdays' briefing was a little more forthcoming and despite saying he didn't have the figures in front of him, gave an indication that community spread was quite low and the R values were being distorted upwards by hospital and especially care home transmission. This is hardly new and happens every winter with Flu.

The worrying data he appeared to hint at was a total estimate of 20,000 new cases a day. This is really far too high for track and trace to cope with and leaves us in a poor position to avoid a second peak. There is no doubt in my mind we should have locked down a week earlier but should we like other European countries have had a more severe lockdown? I don't know.

The curves for the various areas of the UK have reached the plateau but are only reducing at a very low rate and that seems unlikely to change and it is as good as it will get so we must gradually begin the lockdown relaxation process.

[Beamer]

No one sane would dispute that covid19 is a dangerous virus.  It is highly contagious.  It kills.  But fortunately it does not kill everyone - if fact far from it.  The death rate, when the figures are finally able to be accurately studied, is likely to be far lower than originally feared.     
Let's keep our elderly safe, because they are the ones most at risk. But the blunt tool of entire lockdown for all...?

Why will the figures for the death rate be lower than feared???
What science is this based on?

[The Film Director]

There was no other option but you are right it has to end.

As Matt Hancock would say "Thank you Film Director that is a incredibly important question" then he would babble on about something he has no understanding of instead of referring it to the 'experts', who are under instructions not to say too much ..... if indeed they know the answers.

Scotland like many other areas is at least a week behind London. They do have centres of high density population such as Glasgow but that probably doesn't fully explain it. They do however have a particular problem with care homes. The number of hospital admissions and therefore deaths has fallen, though not I think at the same rate as south of the border? However the latest deaths in Scotland's care homes now slightly exceed those in hospitals and are around 40% of the overall total.

The government when asked are consistently refusing to give estimated R values for hospitals and care homes although the Jolly Green Giant from the ONS at yesterdays' briefing was a little more forthcoming and despite saying he didn't have the figures in front of him, gave an indication that community spread was quite low and the R values were being distorted upwards by hospital and especially care home transmission. This is hardly new and happens every winter with Flu.

The worrying data he appeared to hint at was a total estimate of 20,000 new cases a day. This is really far too high for track and trace to cope with and leaves us in a poor position to avoid a second peak. There is no doubt in my mind we should have locked down a week earlier but should we like other European countries have had a more severe lockdown? I don't know.

The curves for the various areas of the UK have reached the plateau but are only reducing at a very low rate and that seems unlikely to change and it is as good as it will get so we must gradually begin the lockdown relaxation process.

Cheers - I'm still surprised at the London estimate of 0.5 

[Doc Holliday]

Cheers - I'm still surprised at the London estimate of 0.5 

I am also surprised at the rapid rate of decline in the figures for London which in turn will produce a current lower R value.  I don't know why? Could it be that as they were definitely late going into lockdown it has led to many more people becoming infected generally and a greater herd immunity?

We are still waiting on the ONS epidemiological antibody survey, which will give us a better indication of how many have already been infected. That said they are hinting to expect this figure to still be fairly low and certainly nowhere near the 50% figure discussed above?

[GreyDave]

Absolutely this.
Particularly when you realise the Oxbridge mafia takeover of media, politics and political media management which is a big fuck off merry go round of posh twats who are all mates and help each other get jobs when they inevitably fuck up being whatever they were doing previously 

The Main people breaking these lock down rules    Then when media lies to us and slips up we are the nasty people tring to down the BBC and others

[Beamer]

Just seen this.....
"Manchester City and England defender Kyle Walker says he feels he is "being harassed" after it was reported he had broken social distancing rules again:" 
The twat has lost the plot, his England place and probably the Man City 1st eleven spot......all richly deserved.

[Xtro]

Yeah it's a bit damned if you do and damned if you don't though.
Sars, Mers and swine flu all never really came to anything in this country but it was being hyped up in the media, you then end up with the boy who cried wolf scenario where people including me automatically think about CV19 that it won't come to anything.
Apart from this time it actually is a bad one

Wasn't swine flu a conspiracy between big pharma and the WHO?

.........
We are still waiting on the ONS epidemiological antibody survey, which will give us a better indication of how many have already been infected. That said they are hinting to expect this figure to still be fairly low and certainly nowhere near the 50% figure discussed above?

Don't the antibody tests give a high percentage of false negatives and therefore cannot give accurate rates of previous infection?

I heard somewhere that some patients were admitted to hospital (respiratory problems), tested positive, got treated, tested negative and were sent home. Some returned to hospital with infection associated with endothelial system (strokes, thrombosis) and died quickly thereafter.

[Wadebridge]

... I couldn't stop laughing.
Don't they understand the lockdown/social distancing is a myth maintained by the media?
As I said there were vehicles galore out the other day. More roadworks than you can shake a stick at with about 20 workmen working closely together. Indeed in all my life I have never seen so many temporary traffic lights locally.
I walked past some industrial units, all of which had many cars in their car parks with people evidently working as normal. One of my great nephews who works for a small 'hole in the corner' engineering firm in another town has had to go to work throughout on pain of losing his job.
When are the media going to come into the real world and stop exaggerating the 'lockdown'?

This'll no doubt be why Sheffield was mentioned on the news the other day as being one of the 'hotspots' for the virus as well as 'The North West', which has overtaken previous hot spot urban areas like London, Birm/Wolves. No doubt that many people in Manchester are behaving the same as in Sheffield.

There is one footnote though with you being in Scotland where the 'R' value is still thought to be possibly around 0.9 which leaves little room for manoeuvre. London is in the best position at around 0.5 to proceed asap.

Seriously, you surely don't believe any of this crap do you?
The government has been lying from day one. Over (a) its preparedness for a pandemic, (b) its 'stockpiles' of useable and not expired PPE, (c) suppressing the scale of deaths by until recently only reporting hospital deaths and not care home deaths and community deaths (at home), (d) its testing statistics,  capacity and rollout. 100,000 tests my arse. It had dropped to under 70,000 only yesterday.
There's never been any effective monitoring at airports of imported cases coming into the country. Even now in mid May other countries stare on in disbelief at the UK's complacent and lethargic attitude at airports and elsewhere with regard to containment.
So it's clear to me that Parliament is lying ... okay, being 'economical with the truth', with regard to the true R-zero value too.
If Scotland with its much smaller population (9 million) thinks the R-zero is close to 1 (0.9) then imo it's ridiculous to think that England (population 50 million) and with the behaviour that Nik describes in Sheffield, has a R-zero of 0.5. It's complete and utter cobblers.
Other countries like Germany who for weeks have kept new cases in their 00's rather than 000's, yesterday saw their new cases jump to we'll over 1,000 again. The reason obviously is the slight relaxing of lock down and opening up of their economy again. Yet its total number of active cases is something like 35,000. And it is in a much better position to measure fluctuations in the R-zero with its regional local testing setups and its claim of 500,000 tests a day.  Its handling at airports has also been in line with most countries taking the threat of imported cases seriously.
This is a much better position than the UK's total active cases of 180,000.
The UK was arrogant, complacent, lethargic, thought it knew best when the warnings were coming from Spain and Italy, and we are now paying the price. A much, much longer lock down, and one that will probably evaporate as more and people can't stand it any longer.
And no amount of lies and bending of the truth by the Government, to make the situation seem better than it is, will wash with most people who watch the news day by day.

[Spencer Fobby]

very interesting that BBC news night featured a film that was sceptical about the lockdown response External Link/Members Only