The continuing 'lockdown' nonsense in the media

[Xtro]

You missed the 5G mast.

If you'd have asked "Did you miss the 5G mast?", that would have been the burning question.   

[Doc Holliday]

If you'd have asked "Did you miss the 5G mast?", that would have been the burning question.   

No he definitely missed it. I had his location tracked on my phone. I can do this because WW has downloaded the NHS app 

[winkywanky]

You missed the 5G mast.

Oh FFS   

[King Nuts]

I think we covered everything  .

Did you tell them about the worst job you ever had?

[winkywanky]

No he definitely missed it. I had his location tracked on my phone. I can do this because WW has downloaded the NHS app 

You fucker, I do indeed have the NHS App on my phone, and I thought my data was safe!

I didn't know you were bloody well in charge of it! 

[winkywanky]

Did you tell them about the worst job you ever had?

Those lobsters were nasty little sods. but Jayne was very, very grateful, and that made it all worthwhile actually

[Xtro]

Did you tell them about the worst job you ever had?

 I thought you was reviving that old sausage factory joke! 

[Blackpool Rock]

Boris is due to tell us tonight what the plans are to start easing the lockdown, so how come it's all over the news this morning and in the Sunday papers 
Never makes sense to me reporting what is going to be said before it's officially said 

Do the Govt intentionally tell the media and allow them to then tell the general public or are they supposed to keep it under wraps until the announcement is made, alternatively does somebody leak this 

Anyway stay at home has been dropped and replaced with stay alert, presumably that mean people can go anywhere and do what they want now without fear of catching it if they remain alert 

Unfortunately people need to be told exactly what they can and can't do otherwise the brakes are off, while older and more at risk groups may still be cautious the younger teen / 20's will just see this as a green light

[King Nuts]

Do the Govt intentionally tell the media and allow them to then tell the general public or are they supposed to keep it under wraps until the announcement is made, alternatively does somebody leak this 

Bit of both, I think. Sometimes stuff gets embargo'd until a certain time. Which is why you sometimes hear on the radio at 7am that something or other has been 'suddenly announced'. No it fucking hasn't. You've been told not to say anything until now.

Other times it's leaked. Got to remember that both sides feed off each other. All media outlets will respect an embargo, else they'll be punished by having info withheld. At the same time, MPs and others want to keep 'in' with certain media outlets, so stuff will always get leaked.

[The Film Director]

Those lobsters were nasty little sods. but Jayne was very, very grateful, and that made it all worthwhile actually

Lobsterisimus bumbikissimus 

[winkywanky]

Boris is due to tell us tonight what the plans are to start easing the lockdown, so how come it's all over the news this morning and in the Sunday papers 
Never makes sense to me reporting what is going to be said before it's officially said

Do the Govt intentionally tell the media and allow them to then tell the general public or are they supposed to keep it under wraps until the announcement is made, alternatively does somebody leak this 

Anyway stay at home has been dropped and replaced with stay alert, presumably that mean people can go anywhere and do what they want now without fear of catching it if they remain alert 

Unfortunately people need to be told exactly what they can and can't do otherwise the brakes are off, while older and more at risk groups may still be cautious the younger teen / 20's will just see this as a green light

I hate this too, and all it does is undermine the official message 

Whether that's because of targeted and purposeful leaks, twats in Cabinet leaking it without authorisation, or newspapers making it up and/or speculating, I have no idea.

But it's fucking stupid because by the time the actual announcement gets made, people have already made their minds up what their response will be. And for many that will be 'I've had enough, I'm doing what I want'  .

[winkywanky]

Lobsterisimus bumbikissimus 

Indeed, those facking great lobsters up Jayne Mansfield's bum. Poor girl.

[lostandfound]

I hate this too, and all it does is undermine the official message 

Whether that's because of targeted and purposeful leaks, twats in Cabinet leaking it without authorisation, or newspapers making it up and/or speculating, I have no idea.

But it's fucking stupid because by the time the actual announcement gets made, people have already made their minds up what their response will be. And for many that will be 'I've had enough, I'm doing what I want'  .

Unfortunately that is our stereotypical national character.

Reminds me of a conference I was at a couple of years ago. An expensive electronic toy was raffled and won by a German guy. I teased him that he would be checking with the authorities when he got back to Germany to see if there was vat to pay on it, because he's German, and he loves to follow rules. I apologised for my joke, but he said, no problem, I was absolutely correct, and he knew that in the pub that night I would have to drink ten pints of lager and get pissed, just because I am a British guy and that is what we do. All in good humour, but with a seed of truth in it.

[winkywanky]

We ignore our national differences at our peril. Sadly, that is what the EU is increasingly doing, and it will backfire.

We're not all the same.

As for the British public, well I think it's true that many have lost any sense of deference or responsibility to the whole. And we are unfortunately seeing that during this crisis.

[finn5555]

Hidden Image/Members Only

[winkywanky]

I think this is certainly how some of the public will be reacting to tonight's speech from Boris 

[Chorley]

I hate this too, and all it does is undermine the official message 

Whether that's because of targeted and purposeful leaks, twats in Cabinet leaking it without authorisation, or newspapers making it up and/or speculating, I have no idea.

But it's fucking stupid because by the time the actual announcement gets made, people have already made their minds up what their response will be. And for many that will be 'I've had enough, I'm doing what I want'  .

People have been doing what they want for weeks.  All this will do is give them a green light to be more cuntish than before.  I predict carnage  

[winkywanky]

People have been doing what they want for weeks.  All this will do is give them a green light to be more cuntish than before.  I predict carnage  

I suspect you may be right Chorley  .

Just had some fucking wanker on my local Nextdoor App suggesting breaking Lockdown. I've reported the cunt 

Although it's not a disaster (yet), apparently in Germany the R rate has gone over 1 after their loosening of the Lockdown. Not so bad for them because they're coming from a much lower place, but they're gonna need to nip that right in the bud.

[King Nuts]

People have been doing what they want for weeks.  All this will do is give them a green light to be more cuntish than before.  I predict carnage  

That's the spirit. Everyone else is a cunt, and needs to be told what to do.

[Chorley]

That's the spirit. Everyone else is a cunt, and needs to be told what to do.

Yes,, unfortunately they are, and yes they do. 

[Doc Holliday]

Although it's not a disaster (yet), apparently in Germany the R rate has gone over 1 after their loosening of the Lockdown. Not so bad for them because they're coming from a much lower place, but they're gonna need to nip that right in the bud.

You analyse by test track and trace why and where it has gone up and act accordingly. I understand in Germany the spike is related to care homes and a slaughterhouse? Closing the shops again will not solve that.

This is why South Korea, Taiwan etc have done well.

That said I am not confident the UK has the same capabilities going forward?

[Blackpool Rock]

You analyse by test track and trace why and where it has gone up and act accordingly. I understand in Germany the spike is related to care homes and a slaughterhouse? Closing the shops again will not solve that.

This is why South Korea, Taiwan etc have done well.

That said I am not confident the UK has the same capabilities going forward?

Yeah we still appear to be playing catch up on testing which is still under the promised 100K and we are only just doing a trial on the IOW for a tracing phone app.
We are now taking steps to come out of lockdown but don't have the necessary things in place to avoid a 2nd spike

[NIK]

People have been doing what they want for weeks. 

Of course they have. Lockdown is fake news perpetrated by the media. It makes good copy and saves them having to search for a great deal of other stuff to fill their columns and schedules.

[lostandfound]

Close on 4K new cases yesterday. AIUI they would like new cases to be down to a few hundred to facilitate contract tracing and anything over 1000 will swamp it.

[King Nuts]

Of course they have. Lockdown is fake news perpetrated by the media. It makes good copy and saves them having to search for a great deal of other stuff to fill their columns and schedules.

I know I've said this many times, but journalists are essentially lazy. News comes to them, and not the other way around.

The media's coming out of all this in a very bad light. Other than a small number of notable exceptions, the news media in this country's been infiltrated by socialists for some time, so indignation, spite and a sort of high-minded, 'we know best' attitude always prevails.

And now that we've been offered a thin slice of personal decision-making back, they're all over the place. They can't work it out.

[GreyDave]

People have been doing what they want for weeks.  All this will do is give them a green light to be more cuntish than before.  I predict carnage  

Thats what the Nightinggale Wards are for this period of prepardness ready for the inevitable  2nd wave of it which will hit the all read known target groups. 

Maybe instead of Churchill compassions Borris might be compared to Atlee and his white paper ... it gave us time to prepare... I really hope this is wrong but the State of NewYork is maybe the closest actual real example/model of what happens with a densely populated City area = M25 area here

[Spencer Fobby]

While "Spiked" can often be a deliberate contrarian publication, it is worth listening to Lionel Shriver's interview (a very rational mind in my view) and her take on this pandemic.  For those voices here who want lockdown to stay in place, it's worth listening to other voices sometimes.

External Link/Members Only

[winkywanky]

You analyse by test track and trace why and where it has gone up and act accordingly. I understand in Germany the spike is related to care homes and a slaughterhouse? Closing the shops again will not solve that.

This is why South Korea, Taiwan etc have done well.

That said I am not confident the UK has the same capabilities going forward?

Bearing in mind events from 80yrs ago, I sincerely hope there's no link there... (sorry, that's really bad taste).

Indeed, if they can be sure that's where the rise is, it's two specific areas where they can concentrate their efforts, and it means that the problem isn't in the wider community.

I'm not holding my breath, but we've been talking about this in the UK recently, having a traffic light system and localising it as much as possible, and the forthcoming NHS App (the one that was tracking my evry move    ) would be instrumental in that.

I wonder whether the Krauts have had such an App?  It seems to me that they're so well on top of things, they might not need one.

[winkywanky]

Actually, even if the spike in Germany were from mainly Care Homes, for the national R number to go up that much it would mean many, many deaths in them? I'm thinking of the Care Home population as a percentage of the overall population.

If they really did suddenly have such a big surge in Care Home deaths, that would be a big blow to them after having such a relatively good start with CV (insofar as you can call any amount of deaths good).

[King Nuts]

While "Spiked" can often be a deliberate contrarian publication, it is worth listening to Lionel Shriver's interview (a very rational mind in my view) and her take on this pandemic.  For those voices here who want lockdown to stay in place, it's worth listening to other voices sometimes.

External Link/Members Only

Good interview. Am a fan of Spiked, and Brendan nails it more often than he doesn't.

[Doc Holliday]

Bearing in mind events from 80yrs ago, I sincerely hope there's no link there... (sorry, that's really bad taste).

I probably should have used the term 'meat processing plant' rather than slaughterhouse 

Actually, even if the spike in Germany were from mainly Care Homes, for the national R number to go up that much it would mean many, many deaths in them? I'm thinking of the Care Home population as a percentage of the overall population.

If they really did suddenly have such a big surge in Care Home deaths, that would be a big blow to them after having such a relatively good start with CV (insofar as you can call any amount of deaths good).

R can and should be estimated in a combination of ways. The number of deaths remains low but that will always lag behind, so the first indicator is a rise in the number of positive cases which is what has happened. Germany has a good regional structure and if there is a surge in a particular region then just that region will analyse why and put the brakes on accordingly and as appropriate. For example you may shut down the processing plant increase testing in the workers and get them to self isolate etc. Whilst the figures will affect the national R value the reality is that it is likely to be just a regional spike.

There was a similar worry about a spike in Germany at the beginning of May which declined again quickly. If you go here External Link/Members Only and look at the daily new cases graph you will see that as of yesterday the spike over just over 1000 daily cases appears to have dropped back down to the previous low level of a week previously?

[Doc Holliday]

  For those voices here who want lockdown to stay in place ...

Is there actually anyone who wants lockdown to stay in place?

[Dick Cheese]

Is there actually anyone who wants lockdown to stay in place?

Piers Morgan(Mr Angry) 

[Spencer Fobby]

Is there actually anyone who wants lockdown to stay in place?

Apparently (from memory, so forgive the lack of links) over 50% of the population believe lockdown was not tight enough and only 10% believe it should be eased.  This was on the news yesterday (Sky or Ch4/BBC I think) and obviously was a poll held before last night's announcements.
I remember the 10% figure because I was surprised and disappointed to find I was in such a small minority according to that poll.

[winkywanky]

I probably should have used the term 'meat processing plant' rather than slaughterhouse 

R can and should be estimated in a combination of ways. The number of deaths remains low but that will always lag behind, so the first indicator is a rise in the number of positive cases which is what has happened. Germany has a good regional structure and if there is a surge in a particular region then just that region will analyse why and put the brakes on accordingly and as appropriate. For example you may shut down the processing plant increase testing in the workers and get them to self isolate etc. Whilst the figures will affect the national R value the reality is that it is likely to be just a regional spike.

There was a similar worry about a spike in Germany at the beginning of May which declined again quickly. If you go here External Link/Members Only and look at the daily new cases graph you will see that as of yesterday the spike over just over 1000 daily cases appears to have dropped back down to the previous low level of a week previously?

Apparently their R number is 1.1, so it's just tipped over the undesired '1'.

If they had a spike of 1000 daily cases, with perhaps a Mean figure of 500 cases a day over the course of a week (?) I guess that might play out as an extra 350 deaths, not desirable but no a disaster either. That's with 1% mortality rate but of course the figure would be a lot higher if the extra infections were largely in the elderly in Care Homes.

So many stats!   

[King Nuts]

Is there actually anyone who wants lockdown to stay in place?

I think the state-hugging, tax-consuming public sector are happy for it to roll on for ever. The media, of course, are all onside too.

[winkywanky]

I think the state-hugging, tax-consuming public sector are happy for it to roll on for ever. The media, of course, are all onside too.

That's somewhat of an over-simplification, but ultimately we live in a democracy so the govt must overall reflect the desires of the nation. With a big caveat that there needs to be good explanation of strategy of course.

In times such as these, the media are always going to be a mouthpiece of the govt to the extent that they, responsibly, state what the govt wants the public to do. What they must also do of course though, is to represent dissenting voces and alternative opinions, and I have to say I think they are doing that.

[Doc Holliday]

Apologies Spencer I actually meant on UKP in line with your original post. I should have made that clearer

  For those voices here who want lockdown to stay in place,

Apparently (from memory, so forgive the lack of links) over 50% of the population believe lockdown was not tight enough and only 10% believe it should be eased.  This was on the news yesterday (Sky or Ch4/BBC I think) and obviously was a poll held before last night's announcements.
I remember the 10% figure because I was surprised and disappointed to find I was in such a small minority according to that poll.

I find that 10% figure very hard to believe? What was the question? Within my small circle of the world it certainly is not the case ... although everyone wants it controlled not just 'instant'.

EDIT There is one caveat in my statement in that those who work in the NHS are very scared of removing lockdown, because some of them have to deal with the consequences. They mostly accept it should happen though because we are at the point now of much collateral health damage irrespective of economic consequences.

[NIK]

I think the state-hugging, tax-consuming public sector are happy for it to roll on for ever. The media, of course, are all onside too.

Well the media certainly seem to be enjoying it. The talentless twats on my local BBC radio station are revelling in their status as 'key workers' bringing comfort, company and information to the plebs.

[Xtro]

Well the media certainly seem to be enjoying it. The talentless twats on my local BBC radio station are revelling in their status as 'key workers' bringing comfort, company and information to the plebs.

Don't tune in too often NIK!  We don't want you getting brainwashed as well.   

[winkywanky]

Apparently their R number is 1.1, so it's just tipped over the undesired '1'.

If they had a spike of 1000 daily cases, with perhaps a Mean figure of 500 cases a day over the course of a week (?) I guess that might play out as an extra 35 deaths, not desirable but no a disaster either. That's with 1% mortality rate but of course the figure would be a lot higher if the extra infections were largely in the elderly in Care Homes.

So many stats!   

Doh, thanks for the heads-up by PM Doc  , I got my decimal point in the wrong place   

With an assumed mortality rate of 1%, clearly 3500 extra cases would result in approx 35 extra deaths, NOT 350  .

Although as I opined, if they were in Care Homes then the likelihood that the number would be much higher, quite possibly a lot higher than my incorrect figure of 350  .

[PS don't be afraid to pull me up openly on the board Doc, I won't shout at you because you actually know what you're talking about  ]

[winkywanky]

Don't tune in too often NIK!  We don't want you getting brainwashed as well.   

Unlikely Nik would fall under the foul spell of the evil BBC Local Radio, IMO 

 

[Doc Holliday]

With an assumed mortality rate of 1% ...

Another unknown figure which will vary from country to country.

We have been promised some initial results from the ONS serological survey next week. This may narrow it down further?

Working backwards, if we take say 35,000 UK deaths at a rate of 1% then we would expect around 3.5 million to have been infected so far?

If we adopt the flu figure of 0.1% fatality then that would equate to 35 million people having been infected.

There has been mention of a figure of around 10% of the population been infected which would mean around 6.7 million. This will of course vary regionally per head of population but I understand that variation is part of the study.

That in turn would extrapolate to a fatality rate of between 0.5 to 0.6%

The true fatality rate will only be known a very long way down the line, but if it turns out only 10% have been infected we would be a very long way from any herd immunity, even assuming we do actually develop some natural immunity?

One to watch?

[winkywanky]

Another unknown figure which will vary from country to country.

We have been promised some initial results from the ONS serological survey next week. This may narrow it down further?

Working backwards, if we take say 35,000 UK deaths at a rate of 1% then we would expect around 3.5 million to have been infected so far?

If we adopt the flu figure of 0.1% fatality then that would equate to 35 million people having been infected.

There has been mention of a figure of around 10% of the population been infected which would mean around 6.7 million. This will of course vary regionally per head of population but I understand that variation is part of the study.

That in turn would extrapolate to a fatality rate of between 0.5 to 0.6%

The true fatality rate will only be known a very long way down the line, but if it turns out only 10% have been infected we would be a very long way from any herd immunity, even assuming we do actually develop some natural immunity?

One to watch?

So many questions are still unanswered, still so much we don't know about Covid-19 and how far it's spread. As we keep being told, and it's undoubtedly true, we won't really know what the hell went on until it's all over  .

The natural immunity thing is very scary, if we can't develop a real and/or lasting immunity from having suffered from it previously, we're pretty deep in the shit. I'm assuming if that's the case, similarly it will be even harder to develop a universal vaccine? That really would be a nightmare scenario.

Personally, I'm just hanging on to the possibility of the much-fabled Oxford vaccine becoming a real prospect by September, and then rolled out asap to the whole UK population, perhaps before the year is out? I realise that's very optimistic.

One thing I found very interesting regarding that: when they announced a couple of weeks ago that they'd given the vaccine to some volunteers, obviously there's a control group given a placebo as well as those given the vaccine, the groups are of equal size and the same average age range presumably. The obvious question on my lips as a layman, was will you then expose both groups to Covid-19 to get a fast result as to whether it works or not? But of course no, this would be unethical and it goes against the Hippocratic Oath I guess...instead, those people are simply allowed to go back into the population and pick it up or otherwise, by natural means of 'accidental exposure'.

While that's ethical (and of course, actually more meaningful from an epidemiological POV) I did wonder whether there might be some hardcore volunteers at Porton Down that we didn't know about, who might simply be exposed to Covid-19, having been given the vaccine?

[winkywanky]

Another thing I became aware of recently...those reports of people who'd recovered from Covid-19, then going on to test positive some time later. This did raise the very undesirable spectre of being able to catch it again, and in short time, too.

Apparently those positive tests are now thought to have been due to dead, viral 'remnants' being cleared from the lungs, after the infection had been killed off by the immune system in the normal way.

Or are there infact proven cases of people really being reinfected?

[Blackpool Rock]

So many questions are still unanswered, still so much we don't know about Covid-19 and how far it's spread. As we keep being told, and it's undoubtedly true, we won't really know what the hell went on until it's all over  .

The natural immunity thing is very scary, if we can't develop a real and/or lasting immunity from having suffered from it previously, we're pretty deep in the shit. I'm assuming if that's the case, similarly it will be even harder to develop a universal vaccine? That really would be a nightmare scenario.

Personally, I'm just hanging on to the possibility of the much-fabled Oxford vaccine becoming a real prospect by September, and then rolled out asap to the whole UK population, perhaps before the year is out? I realise that's very optimistic.

One thing I found very interesting regarding that: when they announced a couple of weeks ago that they'd given the vaccine to some volunteers, obviously there's a control group given a placebo as well as those given the vaccine, the groups are of equal size and the same average age range presumably. The obvious question on my lips as a layman, was will you then expose both groups to Covid-19 to get a fast result as to whether it works or not? But of course no, this would be unethical and it goes against the Hippocratic Oath I guess...instead, those people are simply allowed to go back into the population and pick it up or otherwise, by natural means of 'accidental exposure'.

While that's ethical (and of course, actually more meaningful from an epidemiological POV) I did wonder whether there might be some hardcore volunteers at Porton Down that we didn't know about, who might simply be exposed to Covid-19, having been given the vaccine?

I was watching an episode of QI the other night and this sort of thing came up, years ago doctors did infect patients to see if vaccines worked and a boy was given cow pox then infected with small pox to test the theory by Edward Jenner.

Can't remember the other examples they gave but someone won the Nobel prize after discovering a cure using a human guinea pig, these days however you would be struck off, the only exception is if you experiment on yourself
 

[winkywanky]

I was watching an episode of QI the other night and this sort of thing came up, years ago doctors did infect patients to see if vaccines worked and a boy was given cow pox then infected with small pox to test the theory by Edward Jenner.

Can't remember the other examples they gave but someone won the Nobel prize after discovering a cure using a human guinea pig, these days however you would be struck off, the only exception is if you experiment on yourself

I remember that one, and it worked  .

Having said that, it may just be that you never heard about the 200 kids from the Poorhouse who he killed with his other experiments   

Interesting about the self-testing. The last known case of that was apparently a certain Dr. Jekyll...