Highest death toll in Europe

[lostandfound]

Over 32K. Although "international comparisons are not meaningful at this stage", it is not a good look. Boris' Teflon qualities may be tested as never before.

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[hermanmunster]

I think all comparisons have to be taken with a big pinch of salt.  A recent German investigation into their own Covid 19 cases, states that actual cases and deaths could be 10x the official figure.  I feel we are more open than most with regard to the official figures.

[Scotpunter]

There are far too many variables to use this as a true account.

You need to look at population number & population density at the very least to compare it to other Countries. Likewise, if we are counting deaths among care homes, hospitals or those with life limiting illness. Were those deaths actually caused by Corona, or was it just a relatively minor contributing factor.

I think Boris will come out of this looking pretty good. We have these massive Nightingale Hospitals which have seen very little, if any use. We have not seen the breakdown of health services that was seen in other Countries, Italy for example.

[cotton]

Set against the predictions of hundreds of thousands dying and the NHS being overlwhelmed the government actually seems to have acheived its objective of reducing the crisis to manageabvle levels the NHS can cope with.  They just need to equip the NHS properly for the next pandemic cos they seem to be recuring with regularity , least the government should do is properly kit out the NHS. Boris got looked after by the NHS so im sure he appreciates this, he seems quite a reasonable guy.

[NIK]

Perhaps it’s because we’re so overcrowded?
Especially the ‘melting pot’ shithole that used to be London.

[badsin]

Listened to Maajid Nawaz on LBC Saturday 2nd May (can't find a link currently). Basically stating that almost all European countries are recording deaths differently, so comparisons cannot currently be drawn up.
Interesting guests and statisticians, describing the flaws of making comparisons so early on.
However also stated that different countries record deaths differently as well. So you could die of a heart attack, with a covid-19 cough (nothing more) and the death is recorded as covid-19, opposed to dying of a heart attack whilst being infected with Covid-19. I'll try an a find a link.....

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[southcoastpunter]

Yes there are so many variables that needs to be taken into account - the way the figures are made up, who is included in it, population makeup etc etc.

But also i think the "nature/characteristcs" of the British people is a factor We are not as compliant as some of our European neighbours. As such it needed to be getting bad here in the Uk before we collectively would accept lockdown as being necessary. So maybe that is one reason we were a little late starting lockdown.  And already we are seeing a higher number of our population relaxing their compliance with regulations prematurely . We also seem to have a higher degree of scepticism about "big brother" than maybe other nations. I'm on the mainland but The Isle of Wight is in my local area for both TV and radio news and there are a number of local politicians and people having "serious concerns" over the trials of this phone tracking system to alert you if you have been in close proximity to a person shown to be covid19 positive. This is something that can save your life, your family's life and others life - but we have "concerns" for our privacy!! Not sure if other countries would have the same level of concern or be more focused on seeing the important benefit it could bring!

[Blackpool Rock]

Yes there are so many variables that needs to be taken into account - the way the figures are made up, who is included in it, population makeup etc etc.

But also i think the "nature/characteristcs" of the British people is a factor We are not as compliant as some of our European neighbours. As such it needed to be getting bad here in the Uk before we collectively would accept lockdown as being necessary. So maybe that is one reason we were a little late starting lockdown.  And already we are seeing a higher number of our population relaxing their compliance with regulations prematurely . We also seem to have a higher degree of scepticism about "big brother" than maybe other nations. I'm on the mainland but The Isle of Wight is in my local area for both TV and radio news and there are a number of local politicians and people having "serious concerns" over the trials of this phone tracking system to alert you if you have been in close proximity to a person shown to be covid19 positive. This is something that can save your life, your family's life and others life - but we have "concerns" for our privacy!! Not sure if other countries would have the same level of concern or be more focused on seeing the important benefit it could bring!

Yeah that was mooted before we locked down that they thought people would put up with it for 3 weeks then start to get pissed off with it.
The other thing is that if they had locked down earlier and kept the numbers well down then people may have said hardly anyone had it so what's the fuss about. Perhaps even if that had happened people would have looked at how bad it was in Italy etc and said thank goodness we locked down but there's plenty of fuckwits about.

[walras]

The death numbers for every country are likely underestimates but the UK is in the top group in Europe for mortality with Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands and Sweden.

So we are by no means unique but we had the warning from Italy to act fast like Germany, Greece etc. It probably cost 4x the deaths and a longer lockdown.

[Blackpool Rock]

The death numbers for every country are likely underestimates but the UK is in the top group in Europe for mortality with Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands and Sweden.

So we are by no means unique but we had the warning from Italy to act fast like Germany, Greece etc. It probably cost 4x the deaths and a longer lockdown.

Yeah for most countries the true or truer estimates will probably only be known once the whole thing is over and the statisticians have gone over the data, they still don't really know how many people dies from the 1918 Flu Pandemic but records and recording weren't anywhere near as good as we have these days.

Of course our % of deaths vs diagnosed may look worse as only those being hospitalised were being tested

[badsin]

Testing is always going to be key in working out the varying numbers, and death rates. Without that it's futile.

[NIK]

They're on about this again in the media. Germany has a higher population but fewer deaths, blah, blah. What they don't ever say is that England has a higher population per square mile.   

[Blackpool Rock]

They're on about this again in the media. Germany has a higher population but fewer deaths, blah, blah. What they don't ever say is that England has a higher population per square mile.   

Your right that these things tend to be worse in densely populated areas such as London or anywhere where people are crammed in and living on top of each other but i'm sure South Korea is also densely populated and they have fared much better thanks to early and clear actions

[Hobbit]

I wouldn't believe the stats. Most of these are made up. I know for a fact through a story I heard from a friend whose relative passed away in hospital due to some issue which wasn't Coronavirus related and because the funeral was going to take up to 15 days, the medical staff at the hospital offered to put down on their death certificate that they died of Covid-19 to speed up the funeral. Now, I don't know how true that story is but it did come from a very reliable source. I'm just wondering how many more doctors are doing this or have been over the past few weeks.

[Doc Holliday]

I wouldn't believe the stats. Most of these are made up. I know for a fact through a story I heard from a friend whose relative passed away in hospital due to some issue which wasn't Coronavirus related and because the funeral was going to take up to 15 days, the medical staff at the hospital offered to put down on their death certificate that they died of Covid-19 to speed up the funeral. Now, I don't know how true that story is but it did come from a very reliable source. I'm just wondering how many more doctors are doing this or have been over the past few weeks.

Total bollox

[winkywanky]

I wouldn't believe the stats. Most of these are made up. I know for a fact through a story I heard from a friend whose relative passed away in hospital due to some issue which wasn't Coronavirus related and because the funeral was going to take up to 15 days, the medical staff at the hospital offered to put down on their death certificate that they died of Covid-19 to speed up the funeral. Now, I don't know how true that story is but it did come from a very reliable source. I'm just wondering how many more doctors are doing this or have been over the past few weeks.

Make your mind up, within two sentences you've totally contradicted yourself 

[Hobbit]

Make your mind up, within two sentences you've totally contradicted yourself 

I don't think so. I wouldn't be surprised if it was happening. Like I said, it came from a very reliable source and he generally doesn't make these things up. So I am inclined to believe him, so for me, it's a fact but who knows..

[Doc Holliday]

I don't think so. I wouldn't be surprised if it was happening. Like I said, it came from a very reliable source and he generally doesn't make these things up. So I am inclined to believe him.

Have you any idea how strict death certification is post Shipman? The story is nonsense.

[Hobbit]

Have you any idea how strict death certification is post Shipman? The story is nonsense.

I don't know. You have more knowledge on that than me. I'm just going by what I heard from someone who I trust. They may be wrong, I don't have evidence, but that is what someone told me and I am inclined to believe them to some degree.

[winkywanky]

I don't think so. I wouldn't be surprised if it was happening. Like I said, it came from a very reliable source and he generally doesn't make these things up. So I am inclined to believe him, so for me, it's a fact but who knows..

You did contradict yourself. But I get your gist.

Even if what you were saying were true, do you honestly think it would happen frequently enough to skew the statistics coming out of the epidemic? I think you need a reality check.

[Hobbit]

You did contradict yourself. But I get your gist.

Even if what you were saying were true, do you honestly think it would happen frequently enough to skew the statistics coming out of the epidemic? I think you need a reality check.

No. It certainly wouldn't be happening that often but what I said was and meant, was that I wouldn't put it past some people doing that for whatever reason. It's something we will never know until 5 or 10 years later.

[winkywanky]

No. It certainly wouldn't be happening that often but what I said was and meant, was that I wouldn't put it past some people doing that for whatever reason. It's something we will never know until 5 or 10 years later.

But you said: I wouldn't believe the stats. Most of these are made up.

Sorry to keep picking holes in your story and all that...   

Unless you want to jump in with the conspiracy brigade (the fucking nutters) I would tend to believe the stats we receive from govt sources. We are actually quite good at this kind of thing (unlike having enough PPE and co-ordinating an effective response quickly, it has to be said).

[Hobbit]

But you said: I wouldn't believe the stats. Most of these are made up.

Sorry to keep picking holes in your story and all that...   

Unless you want to jump in with the conspiracy brigade (the fucking nutters) I would tend to believe the stats we receive from govt sources. We are actually quite good at this kind of thing (unlike having enough PPE and co-ordinating an effective response quickly, it has to be said).

Okay, clearly I didn't write it down properly as I contradicted myself. Apologies. So what I mean is: I don't believe the stats to be fully real as for example if it says 20,000 people have died of Covid-19, they may not have died from it but may have had Covid. Also, some doctors may be putting it down when they don't even have it, like that person I mentioned. It could be happening, who knows, I wouldn't rule it out.

Also if you watch the governmental briefings every day you will see that they are very careful with their words and always say "an x number of people have died after being tested positive for Covid-19". They never say they have died of it. Which to me creates a sense of ambiguity that has been there since the beginning.

[winkywanky]

How is that ambiguous, when they're stating something more clearly by saying that?  Whatever benchmark you use, you keep using the same benchmark, then it's as meaningful as it can be.

It is all an imprecise science, all they can do is state as many perceived facts as they can, in the clearest way.

If there's any obfuscation they get questioned on it, and this has been the case with whether they acted fast enough etc.

But that's all water under the bridge and will be the subject of endless post-mortems when the time comes.

In the meantime, all they can do is number crunch the daily stats and base future actions on them.

[The Film Director]

Was it a 'bloke down the pub' who said it 

[Scotpunter]

Your right that these things tend to be worse in densely populated areas such as London or anywhere where people are crammed in and living on top of each other but i'm sure South Korea is also densely populated and they have fared much better thanks to early and clear actions

Without doubt, Having closed the borders and placed the entire country into lockdown earlier would of lowered the speed & spread of the disease. However, I believe those high risk people who died would still have caught it, just at a later date. South Korea may well find that they end up having a second wave & have a high mortality rate at that point.

Again, using your South Korea example. I think it would of been an incredibly hard sell to convince the UK public to lockdown prior to what happened in Italy. When it was still only causing issues in Asia, it seemed far removed from our own lives. It was only around a week from the news of Italy's health service being unable to cope that we started our lockdown.

[ProtocolDroid]

They're on about this again in the media. Germany has a higher population but fewer deaths, blah, blah. What they don't ever say is that England has a higher population per square mile.   

Yep -- slightly:

Population density Germany: 232 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 83

Population density UK: 282 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 433

Population density South Korea: 503 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 5

Population density Italy: 206 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 485

Population density Sweden: 24 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 291

Population density France: 117 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 391

Population density Belgium: 383 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 720

Population density Netherlands: 488 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 304

Population density Spain: 91 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 553

[NIK]

Yep -- slightly:

Population density Germany: 232 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 83

Population density UK: 282 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 433

Population density South Korea: 503 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 5

Population density Italy: 206 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 485

Population density Sweden: 24 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 291

Population density France: 117 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 391

Population density Belgium: 383 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 720

Population density Netherlands: 488 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 304

Population density Spain: 91 persons/sq km
Deaths per million: 553

You quote UK density figures. If you just count England - particularly the South East it would be much higher.
Scotland, both Irelands and Wales have much lower density figures because many of them live in England!

[ProtocolDroid]

You quote UK density figures. If you just count England - particularly the South East it would be much higher.
Scotland, both Irelands and Wales have much lower density figures because many of them live in England!

Population density in Germany varies hugely as well from state to state, with that of Berlin being comparable to Greater London: External Link/Members Only

[ProtocolDroid]

I think all comparisons have to be taken with a big pinch of salt.  A recent German investigation into their own Covid 19 cases, states that actual cases and deaths could be 10x the official figure.  I feel we are more open than most with regard to the official figures.

Source please? If you mean the Daily Mail article below, you need to read it again, and focus on what it says about cases as opposed to the death rate:

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I feel we are more open than most with regard to the official figures.

We can all "feel" whatever we like, but I don't see any evidence that the Germans or any other west European government, for instance, are being less open than the UK.

[badsin]

Was it a 'bloke down the pub' who said it 

😂🤣😂