Well to continue with the guestimate game-I think Lister is probably overestimating. The oft quoted figure of 80,000 for England and Wales comes (as he says) from a survey of GUM clinics by Kinnel et al (1999) and includes those based on the streets and indoors and not only women but men and transsexuals.
In an updated study done last year the number was further refined to 72,800 (see Belinda Brookes-Gordon explaining the methodology (
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It is unclear if the numbers are those in regular contact with the service-or if one-off visits are also counted. It is likely however that this is an overestimate of those in prostitution on any day and closer to those who have been in prostitution over a year or more.
An alternative way to get an estimate of the number of prostitutes is to monitor advertisements. This used to be done by counting small ads in the papers and making assumptions about how many were behind each ad. This was the method used by project Acumen (
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Nowadays of course most advertise on AW (apart from those working in brothels, walk-ups Saunas, parties and escort agencies) (see here see Nicola Smith and Sarah 1 Kingston (2015) Policy-Relevant Report: Statistics on Sex Work in the UK, 7 October 2015, University of Birmingham and Lancaster University
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External Link/Members Only Fog A 2014 b import.io Gender differences amongst sex workers online
External Link/Members Only where there is a guestimate of around 54,000 sex workers. So the numbers “guessed” at by Lister seem on the high side.
You must remember that AW provides a number who are working over a short period whereas those estimates from GUM clinics will give larger numbers as those are accumulated over a year or more. So 3 Romanians who rotate and each stay 4 months each will count as one on AW-and were they to attend clinics-would count as three.
Turning to the assumptions about the number of clients per day that Lister uses again these are on the high side-as are the assumptions that girls work each day and every week in the year. Survey data suggests that 2-3 clients a day is more normal and over a week the most common number of clients is in the range 1-10 ( see
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If we plug these modified numbers (number of working girls and number of clients per week) into Lister’s assumptions we get closer to a more reasonable estimate as to the proportion of men who punt.