The Gambling Thread

[Blackpool Rock]

I often post on the football thread about how I like a bet but i'm thinking it perhaps derails the thread a bit and it would be good to have a stand along thread so here goes 

Ideally people will feel they can share a few tips and reasons why they are tipping their selections and also post up in advance what they have bet on rather than just posting after the event about how much they've won
After the event hero's need to be called out as Bullshitters and glory hunters, we need warts and all

Anyway i'm looking at this weeks Prem footy and a what would have been a few juicy games if certain teams form hadn't recently dipped a bit, tomorrow sees -
Notts Forest Vs Arsenal which could have been a game to see who stayed in contention to win the Prem a few weeks ago
Spurs Vs Man City could still be a good game but nothing to really play for

Anyway the other good game IMO is Liverpool Vs Newcastle, I tend to bet on correct scores but these 2 teams have had a fair few high scoring encounters over the years, remember the 4-3 results back to back 25-30 years ago and both tems just seem to go for it when they play each other.
Newcastle's last 3 games have all produced 4 or 5 goals and 2 of Liverpool's last 4 games have produced 4 goals

My tip is to look at the goal markets and back over 3.5 goals which is about 6/5
I'm also going to do increasingly smaller amounts on over 4.5 goals at about 3/1
Over 5.5 goals at about 7/1 (small bet)
Over 6.5 goals at about 18/1 (very small bet)

Basically if you can get 4 goals then you've won and every extra goal pays a really good bonus 

[chrishornx]

that takes a lot of working out

[Blackpool Rock]

that takes a lot of working out

It's actually quite simple and I rounded the numbers to make it easier but if you were to place -
£50 on over 3.5 goals (so 4 or more goals) @ 6/5 then it would return £110 if there were 4 or more goals
£20 on over 4.5 goals @ 3/1 then it would return £80 if there were 5 or more goals
£10 on over 5.5 goals @ 7/1 then it would return £80 if there were 6 or more goals
£5 on over 6.5 goals @ 18/1 then it would return £95 if there were 7 or more goals

Total stake £85 with returns of -
£0 if only 3 goals or less
£110 if exactly 4 goals so £25 profit
£190 if exactly 5 goals so £105 profit
£270 if exactly 6 goals so £185 profit
£365 if 7 goals or more so £280 profit

In addition to both side having been involved in recent games with a lot of goals I note that the last 2 encounters between these sides have both produced 6 goals with a 4-2 and a 3-3

Anyway i've done my bets on betfair exchange and most were taken at the higher prices that I wanted, since then the prices have dropped so i'm showing a theoretical profit before kick off.

I've also done a few correct scores on the 1st half score so should be OK if there are 2 or 3 goals scored in the 1st half

Since my money is now on no doubt this game will defy the odds and finish 0-0 

[chrishornx]

I shall watch the game with interest

[chrishornx]

how is the bet going BR?

[Blackpool Rock]

how is the bet going BR?

It's not 

Looked good when a fairly early goal went in but only 1 shot on target between both sides in the 1st half

Edit - Just watched the highlights on MOTD and only 3 shots on target between both sides all game, surprised as it looked like a good free flowing and attacking game from both sides

[scutty brown]

money
plughole
disappearing
down

place the above words in correct sequence.........

[Blackpool Rock]

money
plughole
disappearing
down

place the above words in correct sequence.........

You pay your money and you take your chance, i'm currently about £500 in profit this season despite last nights loss, as a rule of thumb I normally make around £2K per season or tournament such as the Euros / world cup, occasionally I lose overall but not often

[anonymouse72]

I like to have a play on the goals market in play and also the next and anytime goal scorer. It's amazing how much value can be had in the second half of a game. Bet365 show the stats for shots on target etc and there are so many footy stats websites out there now. It's just having the time to sit there and analise. Weekends are better when there are so many games across Europe in play.

[Blackpool Rock]

I previously posted on the football thread a few weeks ago about a bet I placed on Burnley to beat Southampton in the FA cup, my reasoning was that Burnley just aren't conceding goals and Southampton can't score so a perfect storm apart from Burnley aren't exactly prolific scorers themselves, anyway I made a decent profit with a Burnley 1-0 win 

I see that Burnley play away in the early KO at Preston tomorrow in the FA cup, Burnley have kept something like 12 clean sheets in a row and Preston don't score or concede many either, they met each other a couple of weeks ago and played out a dull as ditch water 0-0

I've put some cash on the 90 minute result being under 1-5 goals so a 0-0 or a 1-0 win either way will do it, price is about 6/4 get on it 

[Blackpool Rock]

Last FA cup game tonight, I meant to post this yesterday but forgot, anyway Forest at home to Ipswich were about 5/8 for the win in 90 minutes which seemed like a generous price seeing as Ipswich only have 1 draw in their last 6 Prem games

I only got on it this morning and the price was dropping so I got 7/10 however it's been backed down to 1/2 now

[Malvolio]

Not going too well since you started this thread.  Out of interest, how much would you typically bet on a match?

[Blackpool Rock]

Not going too well since you started this thread.  Out of interest, how much would you typically bet on a match?

Ha ha yeah looks like all my tips have gone tits up but anyone who gambles will know you have to ride out those runs of losses and i'm still in profit this season so I don't view it as being my money, thought I was OK when Forest scored a 2nd last night until it got ruled out 

The amount I bet on a game really depends what i'm betting on, if I bet correct scores which is my usual bet then it would typically be somewhere between £200 and £300 spread over a number of scores and more recently i've also been doing the half time score.
I recently had the best possible result where my score came in at half time then there weren't any goals in the 2nd half so I won at full time too, doesn't happen often but it's a good payday when it does

[anonymouse72]

Do you ever use Soccerstats website? Well worth a look and you can subscribe to the whole ad free and full access for a fiver a month.

[Blackpool Rock]

Do you ever use Soccerstats website? Well worth a look and you can subscribe to the whole ad free and full access for a fiver a month.

I tend to do the same / similar things with correct scores where I bet on the big games between certain teams, occasionally I also start betting on other things if something stands out or there appears to be a pattern like Burnley keeping clean sheets and not scoring many themselves

[chrishornx]

really not going well BR

looking forward to your next 'tip'

[Blackpool Rock]

really not going well BR

looking forward to your next 'tip'

Well Burnley play again tonight away at Cardiff, the price for 1 goal or under was 2/1 but has dropped quite a bit this morning down to 9/5

[chrishornx]

Well Burnley play again tonight away at Cardiff, the price for 1 goal or under was 2/1 but has dropped quite a bit this morning down to 9/5

another loss?  Where next BR ?

[Blackpool Rock]

I don't really follow horses but the Gold cup gets off in about 2 minutes, the favourite is only 1/2 and there are 9 runners so if you were to lay him to win say £20 then you'd only be risking £10 but have all of the other 8.

Just thinking there was a race earlier in the week where the favourite fell and then the other fancied horse also fell meaning something won at about 25/1

[chrishornx]

I don't really follow horses but the Gold cup gets off in about 2 minutes, the favourite is only 1/2 and there are 9 runners so if you were to lay him to win say £20 then you'd only be risking £10 but have all of the other 8.

Just thinking there was a race earlier in the week where the favourite fell and then the other fancied horse also fell meaning something won at about 25/1

100/1 winner earlier today BR trust you had it - first race over hurdles great result

[Blackpool Rock]

100/1 winner earlier today BR trust you had it - first race over hurdles great result

Didn't see it as I was out punting earlier

[chrishornx]

Didn't see it as I was out punting earlier

lucky boy

[Blackpool Rock]

Last FA cup game tonight, I meant to post this yesterday but forgot, anyway Forest at home to Ipswich were about 5/8 for the win in 90 minutes which seemed like a generous price seeing as Ipswich only have 1 draw in their last 6 Prem games

I only got on it this morning and the price was dropping so I got 7/10 however it's been backed down to 1/2 now

So I lost on this FA cup tie when Forest were at home to Ipswich as the 90 minute result was a draw, they play again today in the league apart from Ipswich are at home this time.
Forest are a shade over even money for the win which does seem a decent price coming off the back of beating Man City 

[Blackpool Rock]

So I lost on this FA cup tie when Forest were at home to Ipswich as the 90 minute result was a draw, they play again today in the league apart from Ipswich are at home this time.
Forest are a shade over even money for the win which does seem a decent price coming off the back of beating Man City 

Forest 3-0 up at half time, looking promising 

[anonymouse72]

Forest 3-0 up at half time, looking promising 

Bet365 pay out if your team go 2.0 up. Always worth considering on singles

[Blackpool Rock]

Bet365 pay out if your team go 2.0 up. Always worth considering on singles

Not used my Bet365 account for about 8 or 10 years now, I didn't know that about paying out at 2-0 up but logically the odds on the win will be less to account for it.
I did get my money back on correct score bets a few times with their "Bore draw" offer that they certainly used to do

Anyway I got a decent payout on Forest today which more than makes up for my loss last time, also Burnley was under 2.5 goals for the 2nd game in a row 

[jeanphillipe]

Not used my Bet365 account for about 8 or 10 years now, I didn't know that about paying out at 2-0 up but logically the odds on the win will be less to account for it.
I did get my money back on correct score bets a few times with their "Bore draw" offer that they certainly used to do

Anyway I got a decent payout on Forest today which more than makes up for my loss last time, also Burnley was under 2.5 goals for the 2nd game in a row 

I mostly gamble once or twice a week.  Sometimes on Wednesday and mostly on Saturday. And I gamble very rarely when uk football season is over.

I usually mix up over/under , BTTS , and outright wins

On Saturdays I stake 100 on what I consider safe but good value options to build a x10 ish acca. With mixed results , they hit maybe 3 out of 10 times. Takes 4 - 8 selections the less the better. E.g this season brentford has been a banker for me on BTTS vs strong teams and over 2.5 vs other teams. Birningham city to win has been another solid option. Liverpool over goals etc you can even select over 1.5 if the oddsare atleast 1/4

And then 20 - 30 quid on a crazy one with 20 +selections... these never come in... I have had probably 2 or 3 hit in 5 years lol. But the payout is huge. I had one come in for over 15k.