100,000 Covid Test - reality check?

[Jerk Chicken]

Another example of the check being in the post though by the look of it....

Magician Hancock 

[southcoastpunter]

No matter what they do, political bias* in individual members seems to stop people seeing a good effort when it happens. I'm not a lover of Boris and its probably fair to say that our government (and its OUR government whether you voted for them or not) was a bit slow at the start but they have done a pretty good job getting to their testing target. And lets be fair, not many of us had much confidence that they would get anywhere close. So whether its actually 95k or 105k, its a good result.

Lets be grateful that it helps move us a bit closer to Boris being able to easy restrictions - and whilst its still some way off, a small step closer to us being able to resume our hobby.

* anyone who supports  or votes for a particular party will have some form of political basis so its not intended to be a criticism of individual members as such.

[Beamer]

No matter what they do, political bias* in individual members seems to stop people seeing a good effort when it happens. I'm not a lover of Boris and its probably fair to say that our government (and its OUR government whether you voted for them or not) was a bit slow at the start but they have done a pretty good job getting to their testing target. And lets be fair, not many of us had much confidence that they would get anywhere close. So whether its actually 95k or 105k, its a good result.

Lets be grateful that it helps move us a bit closer to Boris being able to easy restrictions - and whilst its still some way off, a small step closer to us being able to resume our hobby.

* anyone who supports  or votes for a particular party will have some form of political basis so its not intended to be a criticism of individual members as such.

 +1 Good post.

[threechilliman]

No matter what they do, political bias* in individual members seems to stop people seeing a good effort when it happens. I'm not a lover of Boris and its probably fair to say that our government (and its OUR government whether you voted for them or not) was a bit slow at the start but they have done a pretty good job getting to their testing target. And lets be fair, not many of us had much confidence that they would get anywhere close. So whether its actually 95k or 105k, its a good result.

Lets be grateful that it helps move us a bit closer to Boris being able to easy restrictions - and whilst its still some way off, a small step closer to us being able to resume our hobby.

* anyone who supports  or votes for a particular party will have some form of political basis so its not intended to be a criticism of individual members as such.

I'd agree. In such a fast moving crisis you're not going to get every decision right. My issue is how prepared we were for this in the first place and what, if anything, we as a nation learn from it.

[hornyguylondon]

No matter what they do, political bias* in individual members seems to stop people seeing a good effort when it happens. I'm not a lover of Boris and its probably fair to say that our government (and its OUR government whether you voted for them or not) was a bit slow at the start but they have done a pretty good job getting to their testing target. And lets be fair, not many of us had much confidence that they would get anywhere close. So whether its actually 95k or 105k, its a good result.

Lets be grateful that it helps move us a bit closer to Boris being able to easy restrictions - and whilst its still some way off, a small step closer to us being able to resume our hobby.

* anyone who supports  or votes for a particular party will have some form of political basis so its not intended to be a criticism of individual members as such.

The 100,000 was always a "stretch" target to motivate people for the best outcome you can get - that's the point of it !

Very few people are 100% objective where politics are concerned - if you are you probably don't vote anyway

[hornyguylondon]

I'd agree. In such a fast moving crisis you're not going to get every decision right. My issue is how prepared we were for this in the first place and what, if anything, we as a nation learn from it.

We weren't prepared but nobody was 100% as it was so unexpected and unknown. You can take a view we should always have more NHS resources which would help generally but how much depends on what the issue is.

We definitely got the lockdown wrong, which had a big effect on our ability to control the virus.

[winkywanky]

I think the BIG test will be how quickly we manufacture 60M or so vaccines (for the UK), once one has been chosen.

That bunch in Oxford seem pretty confident of having a working one by Sept.

I imagine with the various different vaccines being worked on around the world, there'll be sharing of the tech, certainly among 'friends'. But there'll obviously be a bunfight over supplies of whatever one(s) get(s) chosen.

I wonder how this will play out, will 'one magical' vaccine be chosen, for use around the world? Will the WHO be involved in choosing one and trying to in some way to coordinate worldwide production and distribution?

I think perhaps not, I think countries will be (understandably) desperate to sort out their own populations first, and then worry about others later, especially the Third World.

So, are big plans being prepared for when a UK vaccine gets the green light, to start pumping out enormous amounts of the stuff? It almost seems like we ought to be preparing what manufacturing capacity we have, now, and in actual fact build new capacity...like enormous new capacity, so that we can start giving people the jab, asap.

We got these new Nightingale Hospitals up and running pretty quick (and thankfully they've barely had to be used at all) but that was always preparing for the worst, we didn't know what numbers of beds would be required, we just threw lots of resources at it.

But with a vaccine, we actually know the number we'll need. It's pretty well the population of the UK.

I hope to fuck we're doing this, there'll be no excuses if we aren't. And wouldn't it be nice for once (after our disastrous start with CV), if we got it right with the vaccine?

[Strawberry]

No matter what they do, political bias* in individual members seems to stop people seeing a good effort when it happens. I'm not a lover of Boris and its probably fair to say that our government (and its OUR government whether you voted for them or not) was a bit slow at the start but they have done a pretty good job getting to their testing target. And lets be fair, not many of us had much confidence that they would get anywhere close. So whether its actually 95k or 105k, its a good result.

Lets be grateful that it helps move us a bit closer to Boris being able to easy restrictions - and whilst its still some way off, a small step closer to us being able to resume our hobby.

* anyone who supports  or votes for a particular party will have some form of political basis so its not intended to be a criticism of individual members as such.

I'm impressed and not a Tory voter, I'm very much aware the government are up against something they have not dealt with before. What was bothering me were the promises  because as already mentioned, (I'm trying not the use that word) it's all new territory. However perhaps what seemed a huge promise has spurred and motivated into action. Who knows but we are here, and we've got through more or less 6 weeks of lockdown (ish).

[Blackpool Rock]

We weren't prepared but nobody was 100% as it was so unexpected and unknown. You can take a view we should always have more NHS resources which would help generally but how much depends on what the issue is.

We definitely got the lockdown wrong, which had a big effect on our ability to control the virus.

That's not necessarily true though as we have had a few pandemics in the last couple of decades which clearly showed these events are likely to be fairly regular, Sars 2002 - 2004 then swine flu 2009 and MERS 2012.

I'm picking up from the news that South Korea and a few other Asian countries were quite well prepared as they were hit badly with Sars so took action for any future outbreaks, 51 Million population with less than 11K confirmed cases and only 248 deaths seems well prepared to me 

Found this which looks to have been published on 12th Feb before the full impact was really known / felt by the West.
It states that the US is the best prepared country to deal with a pandemic followed by the UK and South Korea comes in 9th while Germany isn't in the top 10.
While it does say nowhere is fully prepared it appears that what has actually happened on the ground in different countries has had a drastic effect on the % of population who catch it and die

Just compare what's happened in South Korea (ranked 9th best prepared) 51 Million population with less than 11K confirmed cases and only 248 deaths Vs the US (Best prepared) 328 Million population with 1.11 Million confirmed cases and almost 65K deaths

So on paper countries who looked good haven't fared so well in reality, this can surely be largely down to how the different Governments / authorities reacted to the virus once it hit.
In the US Trump was still denying the existence of the "Fake Virus"  whereas Korea were extensively testing and Quarantining anyone suspected of having it plus using things such as the phone app to monitor contact and warn people if they have had contact with someone who may also have it, Korea hasn't even had to lock down

UK 66 Million population with 177K confirmed cases and 27K deaths
Germany 83 Million population with 164K confirmed cases and less than 7K deaths

Perhaps when there was a pandemic exercise a few years ago which I believe recommended we build stocks of PPE we should have actually stocked up instead of ignoring the advice
 
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[WARSZAWA16]

Has the government's target to test 100,000 people by yesterday really been met though? Of the figure of 122,347 it now turns out that 81,978 tests were actually done and a further 40,369 were posted to homes and other stations and not done.

[hornyguylondon]

That's not necessarily true though as we have had a few pandemics in the last couple of decades which clearly showed these events are likely to be fairly regular, Sars 2002 - 2004 then swine flu 2009 and MERS 2012.

I'm picking up from the news that South Korea and a few other Asian countries were quite well prepared as they were hit badly with Sars so took action for any future outbreaks, 51 Million population with less than 11K confirmed cases and only 248 deaths seems well prepared to me 

Found this which looks to have been published on 12th Feb before the full impact was really known / felt by the West.
It states that the US is the best prepared country to deal with a pandemic followed by the UK and South Korea comes in 9th while Germany isn't in the top 10.
While it does say nowhere is fully prepared it appears that what has actually happened on the ground in different countries has had a drastic effect on the % of population who catch it and die

Just compare what's happened in South Korea (ranked 9th best prepared) 51 Million population with less than 11K confirmed cases and only 248 deaths Vs the US (Best prepared) 328 Million population with 1.11 Million confirmed cases and almost 65K deaths

So on paper countries who looked good haven't fared so well in reality, this can surely be largely down to how the different Governments / authorities reacted to the virus once it hit.
In the US Trump was still denying the existence of the "Fake Virus"  whereas Korea were extensively testing and Quarantining anyone suspected of having it plus using things such as the phone app to monitor contact and warn people if they have had contact with someone who may also have it, Korea hasn't even had to lock down

UK 66 Million population with 177K confirmed cases and 27K deaths
Germany 83 Million population with 164K confirmed cases and less than 7K deaths

Perhaps when there was a pandemic exercise a few years ago which I believe recommended we build stocks of PPE we should have actually stocked up instead of ignoring the advice
 
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Oh I agree we should build stocks of PPE and also be more self sufficient to manufacture essentials when it's every country for themselves.
 Interesting point regarding country preparedness and I think we're in agreement that we weren't 100% prepared and early decisions cost us when the virus was at it's most virulent.
The scientific/medical experts also need a serious review as they seem to be a few steps behind other countries in everything they recommended 
Oh and someone needs to get a grip on China - too many of these pandemics are originating there 

[hullad]

They did not hit the target they never evenue got close. 122,347 minus 40,736
home testing kits sent out, with no idea when those will be actually tested leaves 81;611.   

81,611 tests where carried out.......

27, 510 dead and we all know that does not include deaths from covid 19 in care homes ,hospices and at home. The figure is almost certainly over 30;000 maybe a lot  higher. The figures are fiddled to disguise a catalogue of failings, you have to be fairly stupid to even half believe what the are telling us.

We will pass Italy with deaths soon enough and we will be the worst in Europe. There has to be a reason for this maybe not now, but it has to be sorted out and lessons learned.

[robsmith149]

They did not hit the target they never evenue got close. 122,347 minus 40,736
home testing kits sent out, with no idea when those will be actually tested leaves 81;611.   

81,611 tests where carried out.......

27, 510 dead and we all know that does not include deaths from covid 19 in care homes ,hospices and at home. The figure is almost certainly over 30;000 maybe a lot  higher. The figures are fiddled to disguise a catalogue of failings, you have to be fairly stupid to even half believe what the are telling us.

We will pass Italy with deaths soon enough and we will be the worst in Europe. There has to be a reason for this maybe not now, but it has to be sorted out and lessons learned.

The figures do include deaths in all settings now, that's why there was a 6000+ jump in deaths the other day, only uk belgium france and ireland add all deaths at the minute i believe.

[smiths]

A classic case of government spin. 100,000 TESTS were not done by and including 30/4, about 40,000 of that was just sending kits out NOT having the tests done by that stage. Obviously this was to make Hancocks pledge look like it was met, it wasn't.

However, I do think having this goal helped mobilise things so we are where we are now, quicker than we would of been otherwise. And that is still too slow, Germany are miles ahead of us though I read some reports of their virus death rate rising since they lifted some of their lockdown measures.

[Blackpool Rock]

A classic case of government spin. 100,000 TESTS were not done by and including 30/4, about 40,000 of that was just sending kits out NOT having the tests done by that stage. Obviously this was to make Hancocks pledge look like it was met, it wasn't.

However, I do think having this goal helped mobilise things so we are where we are now, quicker than we would of been otherwise. And that is still too slow, Germany are miles ahead of us though I read some reports of their virus death rate rising since they lifted some of their lockdown measures.

Yes and what's the betting that the postal kits get double counted once the kits are actually analysed 

It is also concerning that Germany who were being praised for their effective testing regime do appear to have another spike in cases since easing lockdown

[Colston36]

"Lies, damned lies and statistics" I see Mr. Hancock cheated yesterday by pretending the tests sent out actually occurred. It's a shame we don't have a good opposition.

I was talking yesterday to a friend who is a doctor at the main Bristol hospital.

He said the place, having made room for a flood of cases, was practically empty, for two reasons.

1.   The hypochondriacs who waste the hospital’s time and NHS money are so frightened they’re staying away.

2.   All non-urgent operations have been cancelled.

He also said you should ignore all the figures quoted as they’re utterly inaccurate. But I imagine you all know that.

[Doc Holliday]

The figures do include deaths in all settings now, that's why there was a 6000+ jump in deaths the other day, only uk belgium france and ireland add all deaths at the minute i believe.

Actually whilst the daily deaths total does now include all settings, it only includes those who have had a positive test. It does not include those who will have Covid 19 on the death certificate who have not had a positive test. There is therefore a backlog on the real total where Covid 19 appears on the death certificate and will beprovided by ONS. However as more people get tested, especially in care home settings, the daily total should become nearer the mark. However we need to consider all cause mortality excess deaths as below,

Whilst all countries record deaths in different ways, probably the only way to ultimately compare countries is to compare total excess mortality per country over a long period and way down the line when hopefully the pandemic has 'settled'. That said I believe many more European countries than those you have listed include community deaths? What we do know from the data across all countries is that around 50% of deaths are occurring outside Hospitals mainly in care homes.

There is quite a good (albeit lengthy) summary here which explains the complexity of it quite well. It also mentions interesting data such as in the first 3 weeks in April saw more people die of Covid 19 than did on UK roads in the last 12 years.

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Finally I think credit should be given for achieving the test total.  Give an ambitious target to the Private commercial sector and it will strive to achieve it. Rely solely on the public sector including Government and Public Health/NHS and it will fail as it did in the early stages.

Let's not forget the Army expertise either ... if only we had more of them.

[Doc Holliday]

Yes and what's the betting that the postal kits get double counted once the kits are actually analysed 

They won't be counted twice.

[Steelworker]

Setting the ambitious target was smart and achieved the important and impressive result of getting lots more testing capacity. In many situations where there is inordinate pressure to hit a target, data often are distorted to appear to hit it. The press massively increase this pressure by focusing on the actual number, almost looking forward to reporting on failure. And the politicians are experts at distortion. Let’s hope continuing to hammer down infection rate and no nonsense strategy and decisions on the speed and isolation of contact tracing bears many fruits to allow a much more relaxed new norm until effective therapeutics or vaccine or both. 

When this is reviewed at the end via excess deaths factored by age profile, the government will undoubtedly be seen culpable for a 10-14 delay in deciding to lockdown couple with no immediate ramping of test capability much earlier than that. South Korea did just that and need nowhere near 100,000 tests a day with hugely fewer cases and deaths.

[hornyguylondon]

I was talking yesterday to a friend who is a doctor at the main Bristol hospital.

He said the place, having made room for a flood of cases, was practically empty, for two reasons.

1.   The hypochondriacs who waste the hospital’s time and NHS money are so frightened they’re staying away.

I assume the doctors comment is tongue in cheek as it may also be because they're bloody scared of catching something worse and dying.

[hornyguylondon]

Setting the ambitious target was smart and achieved the important and impressive result of getting lots more testing capacity. In many situations where there is inordinate pressure to hit a target, data often are distorted to appear to hit it. The press massively increase this pressure by focusing on the actual number, almost looking forward to reporting on failure. And the politicians are experts at distortion. Let’s hope continuing to hammer down infection rate and no nonsense strategy and decisions on the speed and isolation of contact tracing bears many fruits to allow a much more relaxed new norm until effective therapeutics or vaccine or both. 

When this is reviewed at the end via excess deaths factored by age profile, the government will undoubtedly be seen culpable for a 10-14 delay in deciding to lockdown couple with no immediate ramping of test capability much earlier than that. South Korea did just that and need nowhere near 100,000 tests a day with hugely fewer cases and deaths.

Concur, set your targets high and people strive to get close or maybe achieve it, we'll be better placed for it.

The initial lockdown delay was crucial to contain the virus at it's most virulent and I blame the SAGE experts for ignoring the experience of other countries who were ahead of us. However, the Government takes the decisions so is ultimately accountable for the outcome.

[lostandfound]

I suspect when Hancock committed to the 100K target his industrial partners had already committed to putting in place large scale test processing in big laboratories - feasible because that's what they do and it was well understood by them, especially given a blank cheque. That would be the capacity side of things.

Actually being able to do testing - ie getting samples to the labs and the results back out - is a lot harder because it requires good logistics, and that bit was always likely to fall down, which it has. At least for now. I'm sure a lot of hard work is going into making the logistics work, not least because the failings are being reported.

[Thephoenix]

Obviously statistics are just numbers...... It's how they're interpreted and used that's important.

All I know is that there are three types of people in the world.

........Those that can count, and those that can't.

[catweazle]

.....and according to the news today a significant proportion of people booking a testing appointment didn't bother to actually turn up.

As an aside, once it was opened up to over-65s, with a symptom l booked mine ,(right age band a persistent cough,). Got an appointment for the next day, with a wide choice of times.

Went along, bit of a queue, but including driving 20 miles each way, was there and back in 90 minutes. Was texted the result (negative hurrah) less than 48 hours later.

[Beamer]

.....and according to the news today a significant proportion of people booking a testing appointment didn't bother to actually turn up.

As an aside, once it was opened up to over-65s, with a symptom l booked mine ,(right age band a persistent cough,). Got an appointment for the next day, with a wide choice of times.

Went along, bit of a queue, but including driving 20 miles each way, was there and back in 90 minutes. Was texted the result (negative hurrah) less than 48 hours later.

Pleased that it was negative for you 

[catweazle]

Pleased that it was negative for you 

   
This is what they send you, post-test:
NHS      


Dear Catweazle

Your recent COVID-19 test has been processed and has come back NEGATIVE.

If you are a key worker, please contact your employer about returning to work. If you are not a key worker, please inform the key worker in your household of this result and ask them to contact their employer.

[Wadebridge]

A request if you please ....

Is somebody able to explain today's 'Total Tests', and 'Tests Per 1m Population' figures for the UK from the Coronavirus Pandemic website.
It states 67,231,066 for the first figure, and 987,424 for the second figure.

Given that we have a population of almost 68 million people that would imply that almost everyone living in these islands has had a covid test.

I can say for sure that I haven't yet had a covid test to determine if I have antibodies, nor have I ever been contacted by email, phone, or letter, advising me to book a test.

I have filled in an online request for an elderly family member who was contacted by letter, but the website terminated the request promptly and responded with 'we cannot continue with this request' when I answered that the patient was at risk of increased bleeding to the appropriate  question.
I would imagine that also rules out a lot of other elderly patients on anticoagulation medicine and such like.

[PhelTGrik]

A request if you please ....

Is somebody able to explain today's 'Total Tests', and 'Tests Per 1m Population' figures for the UK from the Coronavirus Pandemic website.
It states 67,231,066 for the first figure, and 987,424 for the second figure.

Given that we have a population of almost 68 million people that would imply that almost everyone living in these islands has had a covid test.

I can say for sure that I haven't yet had a covid test to determine if I have antibodies, nor have I ever been contacted by email, phone, or letter, advising me to book a test.

I have filled in an online request for an elderly family member who was contacted by letter, but the website terminated the request promptly and responded with 'we cannot continue with this request' when I answered that the patient was at risk of increased bleeding to the appropriate  question.
I would imagine that also rules out a lot of other elderly patients on anticoagulation medicine and such like.

The 67 million tests is total tests to date, given that the working/at risk population of the UK is about 1/3rd of the total (off the top of my head) it's like saying on average, the adults that are out and about because they have to be, or are at risk for covid (about 23mil), have had about 3 tests each. That's assuming an even distribution, I know someone who is in and out of hospital a lot who has had 28 swabs since March.

The tests per million population is more of a "ratio tested" metric...so from the figures above I would infer that if you took a sample size of 1mil, the rate at which we're doing tests means 10% of them have been tested. Which is from a surveillance of spread perspective is not the best reflection on testing reach and capacity.

As you're probably aware the test kits involve swabbing well up into the nasal passage and there's a lot of somewhat easily damaged blood vessels around (assuming you try to use the swab like some kind of bore brush/ram rod) there so given the unsupervised nature of the test kits it's probably a risk mitigation not to send a kit out to someone at risk of excessive bleeding.

[Watts.E.Dunn]

Well Boris and matt H are Politicians they are talkers, bulshitters, sometimes lawyers they are not doctors scienceists and engineers they are advised by them but even then this is a difficult thing to reasearch and treat etc we have never had a virus like this one on this scale with no normal inbuilt immunity like we have for flu, most all of any age have a smattering of antiboides for a number of Flu variants.

Its no wonder the situation for South Korea and New Zealand is differnt, they are small countries on the way to nowhere, one in the middle of nowhere! The UK is a core hub for transport.

And the big variable, us the public not as well behaved as when we need be or ought be!..

[hillingdonpete]

If the Government was really serious about containing the virus
Why has it not closed places of worship?  It made a catastrophic error in not closing Schools, Colleges and Universities in LD2

How can you ask the people to behave in a certain way ,when another policy is so obviously wrong?

[Blackpool Rock]

If the Government was really serious about containing the virus
Why has it not closed places of worship?  It made a catastrophic error in not closing Schools, Colleges and Universities in LD2

How can you ask the people to behave in a certain way ,when another policy is so obviously wrong?

It will come down to freedom of being able to choose your religion and worship etc being a "Human right" so they don't want to stop people being able to trot along to wherever and pray to their brand of sky fairy etc for fear of being called oppressive etc

External Link/Members Only

[Watts.E.Dunn]

Religion is important to a lot of people! There is a balance to be struck to containing the virus and the mental wellbeing of the public, which isnt that easy as may be known!..

[hillingdonpete]

You also have the right to Personal Liberty.


Why infringe one and not the other? What's the agenda?

[hillingdonpete]

Religion is important to a lot of people! There is a balance to be struck to containing the virus and the mental wellbeing of the public, which isnt that easy as may be known!..

We should be concerned about the mental wellbeing of someone who believes in a god???

I would suggest that the mental wellbeing was already compromised.

[daviemac]

Religion and politics in one thread that's supposed to be about testing for COVID.   

[Wadebridge]

@PhelTGrik, thanks very much fella, for taking the time to explain for me how you believe these statistics have been derived..
 

The 67 million tests is total tests to date, given that the working/at risk population of the UK is about 1/3rd of the total (off the top of my head) it's like saying on average, the adults that are out and about because they have to be, or are at risk for covid (about 23mil), have had about 3 tests each. That's assuming an even distribution, I know someone who is in and out of hospital a lot who has had 28 swabs since March.

Interesting. 
Okay thank you, if you personally know of someone who has been tested that many times for covid I can begin to see how this figure can start to appear so large.

The tests per million population is more of a "ratio tested" metric...so from the figures above I would infer that if you took a sample size of 1mil, the rate at which we're doing tests means 10% of them have been tested. Which is from a surveillance of spread perspective is not the best reflection on testing reach and capacity.

Again thank you for a very lucid and precise explanation for this second figure.

I appreciate your answer, and taking the time to respond buddy.  :

[Kinkylondongent]

I have now had 14 tests , one for antibodies the rest all at home lateral flow tests. All negative .

[scutty brown]

I have now had 14 tests , one for antibodies the rest all at home lateral flow tests. All negative .

Front line medical staff are now taking daily lateral flow tests, while tech/support/backroom staff are being tested twice a week.
This rapidly builds the numbers.
May change though, given that we're all getting vaccinated

[Pedalwall]

I'm on the Oxford Vaccine Trial - signed up last summer. I have to do a weekly swab test so probably account for nearly 30 of that total. Thankfully all negative so far. Provide a degree of reassurance each week.

[Kinkylondongent]

Front line medical staff are now taking daily lateral flow tests, while tech/support/backroom staff are being tested twice a week.
This rapidly builds the numbers.
May change though, given that we're all getting vaccinated

All staff in my trust are testing every 4 days , and this continues even though most of us have now been vaccinated .

[scutty brown]

All staff in my trust are testing every 4 days , and this continues even though most of us have now been vaccinated .

So different rules for different trusts.........it is apparent that stocks of the lateral flow kits are running short