When it comes to economis you're right. But WG's are demented and egotistical. The market is supply senstivie, rather than demand sensitive. There's always going to be chumps who pay £100 per hh.
The supply problem won't sort itself because we've let the EU and there's no free movement of people. Native WGs aren't willing to do SW on the same level or prices as foreigners. So even if more natives do SW, they'll just charge stupid high prices and give crap services.
The only solution to the price problem is to re-open the borders and let the fit women in.
We've long had this debate as you know chad! I'll summate my thinking;
1 - escorting has a very low barrier to entry versus the high margins on offer. That means supply side recovery could be much quicker than many would anticipate. Remember, Brexit was about creating global Britain, not closing borders. And I must comment, we are starting to see a lot of anecdotal evidence Brazilians coming over, for example. I do agree this is also a supply side issue, but I think recovery in supply in this market could and will be much quicker than other sectors.
2 - We take demand side. Many do not follow monetary policy closely, but essentially this sets demand in the economy. Here, the central bank has now 2 clear choices, neither are good for demand.
a - Central banks continue to tighten policy to tackle inflation, the cost of borrowing continues to increase and many people have reduced amounts of either equity or cash as that what they have will be required to fund the borrowing they have (i'm talking as many fixed rates mortgages end, etc). So, naturally, people have less to spend in the economy and ultimately central banks will tip the economy to recession.
b - Central banks pivot away from fighting inflation, to tackle an economy in recession. Only, inflation is left beyond target. Again, in real terms many people are much worse off as inflation erodes their income and the cost of very basic items in life outpace wage increases.
The point I'm making I see no way in which demand is sustained in either scenario a or b. Demand will fall over the next 12 months and more.
So even with stable supply and falling demand, prices in high margin businesses have to reduce.
In a scenario where supply increases (eg it's quite an easy industry anyone can sign-up for to earn extra cash fast due to the cost of living crisis), and demand reduces, then prices collapse in real terms.
These are economic realities no one will escape.
I believe there are always big whales in every market that sustain a limited number of prices among a limited number of people. However, a millionaire russian in london etc will not sustain an entire market.
My basic position has been the same since late winter. There is no way assests or discretionary spend items will sustain current levels of pricing. The choice in all these asset classes will be very clear, reduce your pricing or go out of business. simple. The reality will hit hard from the autumn.
