Horizon Coronavirus Special BBC2 & iPlayer

[winkywanky]

Apologies for not noticing in time to post up in advance, but this programme was very informative about everything to do with Coronavirus and Covid-19: External Link/Members Only

[freeze44]

cheers ww will have a watch

[Strawberry]

Caught the tail end, yes looked very good.

[winkywanky]

The statistical modelling stuff was very interesting.

And the guy from Imperial College London, who've been doing the modelling that the UK govt have been basing their strategy on. They're the ones who warned that if we'd done nothing then 0.5M people would have died in the UK, and 40M people across the world. The graph showing the estimated curve for critically-ill people in the UK against the Intensive Care capacity was a real eye-opener. It showed clearly that only a stringent Lockdown would prevent many, many people being left to die horrible deaths virtually unaided because of hospitals being completely overrun.

The graph that detailed how herd immunity works too.

And at the end, the scientists working on novel ways to produce a vaccine in super-fast time.

Great programme. It was called Part One, so I guess others in the pipeline as time goes on?

[freeze44]

The statistical modelling stuff was very interesting.

And the guy from Imperial College London, who've been doing the modelling that the UK govt have been basing their strategy on. They're the ones who warned that if we'd done nothing then 0.5M people would have died in the UK, and 40M people across the world. The graph showing the estimated curve for critically-ill people in the UK against the Intensive Care capacity was a real eye-opener. It showed clearly that only a stringent Lockdown would prevent many, many people being left to die horrible deaths virtually unaided because of hospitals being completely overrun.

The graph that detailed how herd immunity works too.

And at the end, the scientists working on novel ways to produce a vaccine in super-fast time.

Great programme. It was called Part One, so I guess others in the pipeline as time goes on?

Sounds an interesting watch 

Think I'm right that ICL predict about 20,000 deaths in the UK due to the measures. Unless things start to slow down rapidly that looks very low.

Thought herd immunity debunked due to the nature of the virus?

[winkywanky]

Herd immunity still 'applies' but it carries with it an acceptance of a certain relatively stable mortality rate until such times as a vaccine becomes available, I think.

That's where the economic damage/public acceptance of Lockdown/level of deaths balance has to be worked out.

[Xtro]

Cheers ww.   

I've been watching the MedCram videos, someone posted about on another thread
External Link/Members Only

They give many good sources, including this one recently for modelling (I've linked to the UK but you can change it)
External Link/Members Only

This model predicts - Total deaths - 66,314 (projected by August 4th, 2020)

[paper7]

Pulled it beck, was a very informative programme. Thanks WW.

[winkywanky]

Cheers ww.   

I've been watching the MedCram videos, someone posted about on another thread
External Link/Members Only

They give many good sources, including this one recently for modelling (I've linked to the UK but you can change it)
External Link/Members Only

This model predicts - Total deaths - 66,314 (projected by August 4th, 2020)

Seems rather strange that it predicts no deaths at all between Jun 01 and Aug 01? That's with Social Distancing continuing all through May.

Although in essence I guess it's saying there's 'no danger' after Jun 01.

I can't believe for one minute there won't be though, it won't just stop completely in its tracks  .

[tynetunnel]

It was certainly a most informative programme, straight to each point, explained clearly even for non sciency folk like me, and completely without drama - fact and science based. Without wishing to set anyone off with any bashing of the BBC, this is exactly the reason I’m happy to pay my licence fee. Clear, simple and well explained. Everyone should watch this, especially all the prats who think it’s okay to not practice social distancing

[Xtro]

@winkywanky

They are projected deaths so the maths are doing their thing me thinks. (mean, median and....?)

FAQ- External Link/Members Only
"Our model suggests that – with social distancing maintained throughout – the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June."

And, "At present the forecast, which assumes continued social distancing, only covers the next four months and does not predict how many deaths there may be if there is a resurgence at a later point or if social distancing is not fully implemented and maintained."

I guess social distancing will be lifted here in early May in order to get the economy back on track. In this instance, I doubt the zero death rate will be a reality.

[winkywanky]

It was certainly a most informative programme, straight to each point, explained clearly even for non sciency folk like me, and completely without drama - fact and science based. Without wishing to set anyone off with any bashing of the BBC, this is exactly the reason I’m happy to pay my licence fee. Clear, simple and well explained. Everyone should watch this, especially all the prats who think it’s okay to not practice social distancing

That was certainly a most informative post, straight to each point, explained clearly even for non-intelligent folk like all the prats who think it’s okay to not practice social distancing  .

[Xtro]

It was certainly a most informative programme, straight to each point, explained clearly even for non sciency folk like me, and completely without drama - fact and science based. Without wishing to set anyone off with any bashing of the BBC, this is exactly the reason I’m happy to pay my licence fee. Clear, simple and well explained. Everyone should watch this, especially all the prats who think it’s okay to not practice social distancing

Without bashing the BBC.....Unfortunately, not everyone will get to watch this if they don't have a licence.
I know there are seperate debates about the licence and I don't want to encourage another one here.
Maybe they could waive the fee for a few months so the public can be educated by this organisation.

[David1970]

External Link/Members Only

An article from the NYT about the BBC

[petermisc]

Thought herd immunity debunked due to the nature of the virus?

The idea of doing nothing until herd immunity sorts it out was debunked, as there would be far too many deaths until herd immunity kicked-in.

Herd immunity will kick-in once sufficient people have survived the virus.  If one sufferer meets three people and infects two of them, then the numbers infected will keep increasing.  If one of those three people has already had the virus, so the sufferer only infects one extra person, then the numbers will stabilise.  And once two of those three people has already had it, then the numbers will drop. 

[Stapler]

That was certainly a most informative post, straight to each point, explained clearly even for non-intelligent folk like all the prats who think it’s okay to not practice social distancing  .

Maybe they have read this :

External Link/Members Only

[petermisc]

Without bashing the BBC.....Unfortunately, not everyone will get to watch this if they don't have a licence.
I know there are seperate debates about the licence and I don't want to encourage another one here.
Maybe they could waive the fee for a few months so the public can be educated by this organisation.

As far as I am aware, you don't need to have a licence in order to watch iplayer.  I can't recall ever having had to enter my address or licence details to watch it.  But you can't watch it through a non-UK ISP, even if you do have a licence.

Unfortunately the kind of people who believe the 5G/C19 kind of conspiracy theory are unlikely to watch anything the BBC says, let alone believe it.

I know an SP with Russio-ethnic background, who gets her news from Russian news sources.  For a year or more after the Salisbury incident, she was being fed news about other chemical poisoning incidents that were happening in the UK, that the BBC and other UK news were "covering up".  For example, there was a bad smell that some Battersea residents complained about that got a minor mention in the local news, that the Russian news headlined as a major chemical incident that was being covered up.  Trying to persuade her that this was pure Russian "false news" was pointless.   Once someone believes that something is being covered-up, it is almost impossible to reason with them.  Any source that says something different must inherently be part of the cover-up, and anyone who doesn't believe is obviously a sheep who believes the kind of thing the BBC says.

I am seriously concerned that if people are burning 5G masts now, how long will it be before they are burning witches again.

[petermisc]

Maybe they have read this :

External Link/Members Only

In which case, they should read this:
https://www.ukpunting.com/index.php?topic=276886.msg2842701#msg2842701

[daviemac]

As far as I am aware, you don't need to have a licence in order to watch iplayer.  I can't recall ever having had to enter my address or licence details to watch it.  But you can't watch it through a non-UK ISP, even if you do have a licence.

Yes you do need a licence to watch iplayer.

How has the law changed?
Previously, only viewers who were watching shows live (as they were being broadcast) needed a licence.

That meant it was legal to watch content after broadcast via iPlayer without paying the annual licence fee.

From Thursday, people need a TV licence to download or watch almost all on-demand and catch-up programmes on iPlayer.

External Link/Members Only

[Strawberry]

As far as I am aware, you don't need to have a licence in order to watch iplayer.  I can't recall ever having had to enter my address or licence details to watch it.  But you can't watch it through a non-UK ISP, even if you do have a licence.

Unfortunately the kind of people who believe the 5G/C19 kind of conspiracy theory are unlikely to watch anything the BBC says, let alone believe it.

I know an SP with Russio-ethnic background, who gets her news from Russian news sources.  For a year or more after the Salisbury incident, she was being fed news about other chemical poisoning incidents that were happening in the UK, that the BBC and other UK news were "covering up".  For example, there was a bad smell that some Battersea residents complained about that got a minor mention in the local news, that the Russian news headlined as a major chemical incident that was being covered up.  Trying to persuade her that this was pure Russian "false news" was pointless.   Once someone believes that something is being covered-up, it is almost impossible to reason with them.  Any source that says something different must inherently be part of the cover-up, and anyone who doesn't believe is obviously a sheep who believes the kind of thing the BBC says.

I am seriously concerned that if people are burning 5G masts now, how long will it be before they are burning witches again.

The law and rules have changed, some years ago it was possible to have a TV without a licence or watch iplayer. I found this out when cancelling my licence the advisor told me so long as the TV was not connected to an aerial I could use it to watch DVDs, also at that time iplayers did not require a licence. All I had to do was tell them I wasn't watching live TV with my set, and expect an inspector at any time. An inspector did turn up once in I think 8 years, popped his head around the door said "I can see you aren't watching live TV how long do you want signing off for?"

These days however a licence is required to watch iplayers.

[Xtro]

The law and rules have changed, some years ago it was possible to have a TV without a licence or watch iplayer. I found this out when cancelling my licence the advisor told me so long as the TV was not connected to an aerial I could use it to watch DVDs, also at that time iplayers did not require a licence. All I had to do was tell them I wasn't watching live TV with my set, and expect an inspector at any time. An inspector did turn up once in I think 8 years, popped his head around the door said "I can see you aren't watching live TV how long do you want signing off for?"

These days however a licence is required to watch iplayers.

That's an infringement on your privacy. Tell them nothing.

[winkywanky]

Without bashing the BBC.....Unfortunately, not everyone will get to watch this if they don't have a licence.
I know there are seperate debates about the licence and I don't want to encourage another one here.
Maybe they could waive the fee for a few months so the public can be educated by this organisation.

Or perhaps the govt will choose not to bring in non-payment being a criminal offence?

I think a grand total of about FOUR people got prosecuted last year for this, and the govt fully realise that if they decriminalise not paying your licence fee, then people will start doing exactly that, in droves, thereby starving the BBC of money.

It's just another way for the govt to kick the BBC in the balls to try and finish it off, without having enough of its own balls to properly consult the public about the future of the BBC.

(The most recent method of kicking it in the balls was as we know, was shafting the BBC by trying to make it deal with the demographic timebomb of being liable for free licence fees for the over-75s. A bit like making your energy provider pay the winter fuel allowance).

[winkywanky]

Maybe they have read this :

External Link/Members Only

As you well know Mr. Trollster, this was dealt with elsewhere  .