Hypersonics and defence economics

[Blackpool Rock]

Exactly. It's easy for us (the West) to be sanctimonious about it when it's not on our doorstep but I wonder how the US would react if Russia created a military alliance with Canada and Mexico.

For the history buffs we all know what happened with Cuba in the 1960's.

So how far back do we go in history 

In Europe as I see it after WW2 Russia seized the opportunity to basically steal countries and form the USSR so these countries never belonged to them anyway 

There then came the cold war with both sides facing each other off and heavily armed right next to each other, the threat was ever present but both sides knew not to tread on each others toes (well at least in Europe anyway)

Next the Berlin wall came down and the failed communist experiment crumbled, stolen countries were left to fend for themselves; turned their backs on their former oppressors and looked West instead

We then had a thawing of the cold war and things were looking up, Russia started to be included in more trade and welcomed to be more included in world / European events such as hosting football finals etc

Then along come Putin with his aim to make Russia great again but his way to do that and restore peoples pride in the country is to basically take back all the former countries they previously occupied


The whole situation in Ukraine wouldn't be like it is if he hadn't amassed so many troops on the border and if he hadn't basically stolen part of the country 8 years ago, but apparently he claims to be the injured party here whose being threatened 

[Marmalade]

I have to admit that in normal times, I forget that RT exists. I've had a look, yesterday and today.

There are people in government asking Ofcom to stop their broadcasting. Their programmes do include disinformation, cleverly presented, and are not balanced — though neither is the BBC.

At a time of national crisis I would agree, as there are a lot of halfwits that would be unduly influenced: but for people interested in analysing the situation — and include even people on this thread — it is hard to get the factual info on Putin’s speeches otherwise. I wouldn’t have googled the Minsk agreements and found the counterarguments had I not glanced at his speeches, or seen some of the complexity of the states he’s calling ‘independent’. Without some understanding of such things, we have to be simplistically for or against.

So far the war looks good for Putin holding on to his position and popularity in Russia. No-one will criticise the guy at the top in wartime for fear of sounding unpatriotic. Even in our own country, Labour’s criticisms of Boris amount to “you should be even more warlike”. Politicians are remembered for their wars — sad fact!

Biden is putting on a tough face and saying every day invasion will be tomorrow or the next day or in a few days (as if Russia couldn’t choose the day??) but we don’t see any gaming of Putin by Biden, and unfortunately Mr Putin knows how to play games.

[lostandfound]

So how far back do we go in history 

In Europe as I see it after WW2 Russia seized the opportunity to basically steal countries and form the USSR so these countries never belonged to them anyway 

There then came the cold war with both sides facing each other off and heavily armed right next to each other, the threat was ever present but both sides knew not to tread on each others toes (well at least in Europe anyway)

Next the Berlin wall came down and the failed communist experiment crumbled, stolen countries were left to fend for themselves; turned their backs on their former oppressors and looked West instead

We then had a thawing of the cold war and things were looking up, Russia started to be included in more trade and welcomed to be more included in world / European events such as hosting football finals etc

Then along come Putin with his aim to make Russia great again but his way to do that and restore peoples pride in the country is to basically take back all the former countries they previously occupied


The whole situation in Ukraine wouldn't be like it is if he hadn't amassed so many troops on the border and if he hadn't basically stolen part of the country 8 years ago, but apparently he claims to be the injured party here whose being threatened 

Yes - I've no sympathy with Putin. Trying to bully the Ukraine into falling under his authoritarian gangster regime is pure evil IMO. His ambition is wider than the Ukraine I believe - he wants to recreate the USSR.

[sir wanksalot]

Yes - I've no sympathy with Putin. Trying to bully the Ukraine into falling under his authoritarian gangster regime is pure evil IMO. His ambition is wider than the Ukraine I believe - he wants to recreate the USSR.

He's a bully, no doubt about it but I very much sense that the Ukraine are pushing hard for the West and the international community to be sucked into a confrontation with Russia

[Marmalade]

Joint attack from Belarus & Russia on the front, tanks crossing the border. Explosions at the main airport from cruise missiles. Explosions around the city. Air raid sirens.

Hidden Image/Members Only

He's a bully, no doubt about it but I very much sense that the Ukraine are pushing hard for the West and the international community to be sucked into a confrontation with Russia

Remember there have been incidents around the U.K. with a Russian ship and Russian plane being seen off U.K./Irish waters and airspace. Russian muscle flexing? That doesn’t happen around America. Is Westminster a loudspeaker for the USA? If things were pushed to extreme …? Sanctions a red flag to the bear but they are not going to make a difference to Ukrainians getting blown up today and this week.

[Blackpool Rock]

Joint attack from Belarus & Russia on the front, tanks crossing the border. Explosions at the main airport from cruise missiles. Explosions around the city. Air raid sirens.

Hidden Image/Members Only

Remember there have been incidents around the U.K. with a Russian ship and Russian plane being seen off U.K./Irish waters and airspace. Russian muscle flexing? That doesn’t happen around America. Is Westminster a loudspeaker for the USA? If things were pushed to extreme …? Sanctions a red flag to the bear but they are not going to make a difference to Ukrainians getting blown up today and this week.

So Putin is invading when he said he wouldn't, apparently he's also said that any bloodshed will be down to Ukraine 

It's all a bit reminiscent of Hitler saying he wouldn't invade Poland etc, "I have in my hand this piece of paper" 

[Marmalade]

Now also video showing tanks just rolling into Ukraine down the main highway. And explosions and firing in multiple cities, widespread attack. Martial law declared through Ukraine.
CNN seems to have the most reporters stationed around the Ukraine.

[Marmalade]

So Putin is invading when he said he wouldn't, apparently he's also said that any bloodshed will be down to Ukraine 

It's all a bit reminiscent of Hitler saying he wouldn't invade Poland etc, "I have in my hand this piece of paper" 

Yeah that occurred to me too, even though the Nazi comparison is overused. (Sky says Putin has used it too, and welcomed 100s of thousands of refugees from Ukraine.)

It is of course more sensible military tactics than announcing your exact intentions so the enemy can prepare. Of course, he says he’s not invading but doing a military exercise to support Russian separatists in Ukraine and only targeting military targets including the airports. The second part of that is so far admitted by journalists in Ukraine but the U.S. says as Russian targeting is not very precise, other places will probably get whacked. Sky says Russia’s gold reserves makes her partially sanction-proof.

[Watts.E.Dunn]

Well Vlad is getting what he wanted a return to the Soviet Union of old:(

Odd as it may seem lets hope he does take Kyiv and quickly and then stop, before too many people get killed, then we can all hope for a diplomatic settlement or a division of Ukraine the east part and the west part like Germany of old..

Not ideal but the real danger is for this to spread or escalate too much and then?..

I don't see him backing down somehow sanctions or not he and his millitary advisirs arent daft, well maybe a bit..

He's thought this through and really who is going to stop him?...

[Jomoore]

He's thought this through and really who is going to stop him?...

Has he thought it through though?  If proper sanctions are imposed and cause pain to the Russian people, maybe Putin will need to be watching his back, not NATO.

[WASA38]

So Putin is invading when he said he wouldn't, apparently he's also said that any bloodshed will be down to Ukraine 

It's all a bit reminiscent of Hitler saying he wouldn't invade Poland etc, "I have in my hand this piece of paper" 

The parallels are sinister and all too clear. Crimea was the new Saar. Donetz/Luhansk the new Sudetenland. Both incursions had a measure of justice in terms of local popular support and were internationally acquiesced to. Now Ukraine is the new pre-1939 Western Europe. It won't stop with the Ukraine; Poland and the Baltic states will be next in line. The disunited United States is turning to isolationism once again.
As a previous contributor here so cogently observed; we are fucked. Our only hope is that some enlightened soul in Moscow manages to assassinate the new megalomaniac would-be Hitler. It seems that his obsequious bully-boy subordinates may actually despise as well as fear him. Sadly, however, military success tends to garner support.

The tumbling value of my assets are the least of my concerns. So much more the outlook for my offspring.

Hope I don't sound too much like Private Frazer.

[Squire Haggard]

It looks like ''we will do more in days ahead on providing Ukraine with defensive weaponry.''  It reminds me of the same pig headed stupidity that led to WW!.  How about not arming Ukraine at all. I've yet to hear a Western leader say that we should listen to the concerns of Russia about having NATO on its border, and not allow Ukraine membership in future, for the sake of peace in Europe.   

[Blackpool Rock]

It looks like ''we will do more in days ahead on providing Ukraine with defensive weaponry.''  It reminds me of the same pig headed stupidity that led to WW!.  How about not arming Ukraine at all. I've yet to hear a Western leader say that we should listen to the concerns of Russia about having NATO on its border, and not allow Ukraine membership in future, for the sake of peace in Europe.

Appeasement doesn't work though does it

[Marmalade]

Odd as it may seem lets hope he does take Kyiv and quickly and then stop, before too many people get killed, then we can all hope for a diplomatic settlement or a division of Ukraine the east part and the west part like Germany of old..

Not ideal but the real danger is for this to spread or escalate too much and then?..

He's thought this through and really who is going to stop him?...

There’s sense in this that politicians may ignore. They will moralise and, as someone has noted, may find it an opportunity to sell weapons to the Ukrainian government. The reality is it’s on Russia’s doorstep and Russia will win. (The same logic could apply to Israel-Palestine — a quick win would be better that the gradual war of attrition,) The danger is it would embolden Putin to take Poland. He’s already hinted at nuclear war if anyone tries to stop his megalomania.

[Squire Haggard]

Appeasement doesn't work though does it

I dont think that we should be trying to get Russia to accept NATO on its border for the first time in its history. The US did not like nukes near its border in 1962, and the Russians backed down.

[sir wanksalot]

Joint attack from Belarus & Russia on the front, tanks crossing the border. Explosions at the main airport from cruise missiles. Explosions around the city. Air raid sirens.

Hidden Image/Members Only

Remember there have been incidents around the U.K. with a Russian ship and Russian plane being seen off U.K./Irish waters and airspace. Russian muscle flexing? That doesn’t happen around America. Is Westminster a loudspeaker for the USA? If things were pushed to extreme …? Sanctions a red flag to the bear but they are not going to make a difference to Ukrainians getting blown up today and this week.

I hold my hands up as I called it wrong. I didn't think Putin would invade and assumed it was just what you suggested, Russian muscle flexing.

Worrying times (like we haven't had enough of them these last two years). The NATO countries bordering Ukraine worry me as all it takes is one misstep by Putin and this conflict bleeds over into a NATO country...............then it is game on

[sir wanksalot]

The parallels are sinister and all too clear. Crimea was the new Saar. Donetz/Luhansk the new Sudetenland. Both incursions had a measure of justice in terms of local popular support and were internationally acquiesced to. Now Ukraine is the new pre-1939 Western Europe. It won't stop with the Ukraine; Poland and the Baltic states will be next in line. The disunited United States is turning to isolationism once again.
As a previous contributor here so cogently observed; we are fucked. Our only hope is that some enlightened soul in Moscow manages to assassinate the new megalomaniac would-be Hitler. It seems that his obsequious bully-boy subordinates may actually despise as well as fear him. Sadly, however, military success tends to garner support.

The tumbling value of my assets are the least of my concerns. So much more the outlook for my offspring.

Hope I don't sound too much like Private Frazer.

I would like to hope that any NATO member country is off limits to Putin as that changes the landscape entirely. Make no mistake about it, any incursion or attack, intentional or accidental will bring us into direct conflict with Russia and a reasonable man would know this. The question is...........is Putin conducting this campaign based out of some twisted reason or has he just gone bat shit crazy?

If you read Putin's list of demands from a few weeks ago one of his requests was that NATO withdraw troops and arms from Eastern Bloc NATO partners. This leaves me with a feeling of utter dread in my stomach if Putin has indeed made this demand a "red line".

 

[GingerNuts]

I dont think that we should be trying to get Russia to accept NATO on its border for the first time in its history. The US did not like nukes near its border in 1962, and the Russians backed down.

Latvia and Estonia are already NATO members and border Russia.

If Russia effectively annexes Ukraine then Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland will also be NATO neighbours.

[Squire Haggard]

Latvia and Estonia are already NATO members and border Russia.

If Russia effectively annexes Ukraine then Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland will also be NATO neighbours.

I'm guilty of not checking the map carefully enough. Latvia and Estonia do share a border with Russia.

If Russia annexes Ukraine, then its new ''neighbours''  will be NATO members, but they will make the choice. They clearly do not want Ukraine as a NATO member.

[Doc Holliday]

Ukraine will surrender by the weekend. Putin is pretty untouchable in the short term. Longer term is anyone's guess, but he really does hold the upper hand?

The world and Europe especially, is pretty fucked up at present.

[Matrix]

Word on the street is that Taiwan is next...

[Blackpool Rock]

I dont think that we should be trying to get Russia to accept NATO on its border for the first time in its history. The US did not like nukes near its border in 1962, and the Russians backed down.

But weren't most of the countries bordering the USSR Nato before it crumbled 
I haven't checked so just assuming that's how it was

[Blackpool Rock]

I would like to hope that any NATO member country is off limits to Putin as that changes the landscape entirely. Make no mistake about it, any incursion or attack, intentional or accidental will bring us into direct conflict with Russia and a reasonable man would know this. The question is...........is Putin conducting this campaign based out of some twisted reason or has he just gone bat shit crazy?

If you read Putin's list of demands from a few weeks ago one of his requests was that NATO withdraw troops and arms from Eastern Bloc NATO partners. This leaves me with a feeling of utter dread in my stomach if Putin has indeed made this demand a "red line".

I'm pretty sure Putin was a soldier in East Germany when the wall came down, certainly he was in the military and I believe it's no secret that he was mighty pissed off about their demise.

I previously drew comparison to Hitler which I don't like doing but all the parallels are here again, Hitler bore a grudge about his country losing the previous war 20 or so years prior and it took that long for him to be in a position to do anything about it.

Seems to me Putin has a deep seated grudge and burning desire to "Right a wrong" that he has in his mind, it's also known that he wants to restore "pride" in his country

[Marmalade]

Here’s a worst case scenario:

External Link/Members Only

[Squire Haggard]

But weren't most of the countries bordering the USSR Nato before it crumbled 
I haven't checked so just assuming that's how it was

From memory, I think that all or most of them were.  Putin said a few days ago that he was unhappy about the former USSR bordering countries joining NATO years ago. It looks like further NATO expansion, Ukraine, is a last straw for him.

[timsussex]

But weren't most of the countries bordering the USSR Nato before it crumbled 
I haven't checked so just assuming that's how it was

Depends on how you measure
Poland Hungary East germany etc were part of a buffer zone separating Nato from Russia
- Of course they were all controlled to a varying degree by the good old USSR

[Blackpool Rock]

Depends on how you measure
Poland Hungary East germany etc were part of a buffer zone separating Nato from Russia
- Of course they were all controlled to a varying degree by the good old USSR

Yes I always thought of any communist country as being "Russian" but technically they weren't actually part of the USSR.
Poland was however part of the Warsaw pact and had Nukes stationed there by Russia, same in East Germany who were faced off with US nukes in the West, don't think Hungary had any stationed there but ultimately Russia / The USSR / Warsaw pact was basically bordered by Nato and vice versa

[Marmalade]

What a big difference between East-West on saying/doing. The West is talking big about what it will do, but which basically amount to sanctions, forgetting the power of Moscow to unleash retribution in terms massive cyberhacks and withholding gas supplies. America is talking it up big (sleepy Joe fashion), but short of all-out nuclear war it will be Europe that takes the fall. Again. Moscow, sensibly from a military viewpoint, doesn’t need to announce all its plans to the world, just gets on with them. It doesn’t have to care too much about popular opinion: it rules by fear.

CNN (far right as it may be) has excellent coverage, including reporting from Moscow where we see protestors being arrested and charged with criminal offences. The Economist points out shortages that the U.K. will experience simply from the effective destruction of Ukraine. One on-the-fence interview I saw on AJ with Libya, broadly sympathetic to the West but didn’t go over the top in anti-Russian rhetoric, pointing out that under international agreements Ukraine had antagonised Russia by not sticking to the Minsk agreement (the host then cut Libya off).

At least Ukrainian refugees will be easier to integrate in the West than those from the fallout of Iraq: but the numbers, again, will likely be a headache.

[Jomoore]

I'm pretty sure Putin was a soldier in East Germany when the wall came down...

He was a KGB agent stationed in E. Germany with direct links to the Stasi.

[Jomoore]

At least Ukrainian refugees will be easier to integrate in the West than those from the fallout of Iraq: but the numbers, again, will likely be a headache.

Interesting that Ukrainian refugees will largely be women and children, whereas from muslim countries it's mainly men, leaving the women and children behind.   

[Marmalade]

All good points.

Much as I admire CNN's reporting from inside Russia and the Ukraine, they have also taken time out to attack Trump, specially quoting him out of context as if he were a Putin sympathiser.
Looking at the U.S. foreign policy under Trump, even while his home policy was in ruins, foreign pocy started no new wars and reached a detente of sorts with foreign powers.
Just in contrast to how the aging Biden has handled it (or his handlers have handled it)...

Trump signed off on anti-tank missile sales to Ukraine, successfully urged more NATO members to meet defense spending responsibilities, and approved sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.

"The reason people are talking about Trump is because everyone knows that Putin didn't dare move on Ukraine when he was in power for a reason," The Federalist's Mollie Hemingway claimed. "Trump was tougher on Russia where it mattered, including bolstering our energy production and reducing Russian leverage over Western Europe, but not needlessly provocative such as by pushing NATO expansion to Russia's border. Biden has done the opposite of Trump in foreign policy and the result is that in less than a year, Putin felt empowered to do what he's doing now."

All hypothetical, but I think it's a very long time since America had a worthy leader. When it comes to choosing between two worst options, the bottom of their barrel seems to know no limit. I predicted when Biden took power that he would be good for America and bad for the rest of the world. So far that does maybe seem to have the case. Putin on the other hand is a 'strong' leader, militarily and at home, yet ideologically unsound: and now he has put his own interests, grumbles and determination for a place in history over and above the interests of the Russian people.

[sir wanksalot]

But weren't most of the countries bordering the USSR Nato before it crumbled 
I haven't checked so just assuming that's how it was

If you mean Poland, DDR, Hungary, Czechoslavakia etc were bordered with NATO member countries then yes, they were. The difference then compared to now was that the USSR considered these countries as buffer zones but if you look at NATO membership today then you can kind of see where Putin's concerns lie. Poland, the Baltic states and even Turkey all surround Russia.

I consider myself to be a reasonable, level headed guy but if I was President of Russia I would also be getting a little twitchy at the prospect of Ukraine getting NATO membership.

[Blackpool Rock]

If you mean Poland, DDR, Hungary, Czechoslavakia etc were bordered with NATO member countries then yes, they were. The difference then compared to now was that the USSR considered these countries as buffer zones but if you look at NATO membership today then you can kind of see where Putin's concerns lie. Poland, the Baltic states and even Turkey all surround Russia.

I consider myself to be a reasonable, level headed guy but if I was President of Russia I would also be getting a little twitchy at the prospect of Ukraine getting NATO membership.

The thing is any bits not invaded quickly will now probably be signed up quickly 

[sir wanksalot]

The thing is any bits not invaded quickly will now probably be signed up quickly 

Regarding NATO membership there's not really many more "bits" to sign up. Belarus, Ukraine and Finland are the only three left on Russia's borders that haven't signed up and Ukraine have been pestering to join for some time.

Interesting article on the BBC website "With hindsight, and there's starting to be a lot of that, some politicians and academics are saying that Nato should perhaps have changed its whole approach after the Berlin Wall came down - it should have avoided humiliating Moscow by taking its old satellites in Eastern Europe on board, and lining them up in a way that seemed to Putin's Russia to be confrontational.

The mere suggestion that Ukraine might one day join Nato (even though it has always been regarded as unlikely) enraged the Kremlin, and helped persuade President Putin that he must deal with Ukraine once and for all."

[WASA38]

Putin knows full well that NATO presents no threat at all to Russia; this is all too clear now but has not done so for many years. His real concern is having a  former USSR province morphing into a successful democracy on his doorstep and the example that presents to his own oppressed population.

We can at least hope that Russia will be completely ostracized by international sporting authorities and that the population will be mightily pissed off .
I see that Vettel, albeit  being held in low regard here, has declared that no GP racing should go ahead in Russia and that if it did, he for one would not attend.

[sparkus]

Putin knows full well that NATO presents no threat at all to Russia; this is all too clear now but has not done so for many years. His real concern is having a former USSR province morphing into a successful democracy on his doorstep and the example that presents to his own oppressed population.

We can at least hope that Russia will be completely ostracized by international sporting authorities and that the population will be mightily pissed off .
I see that Vettel, albeit  being held in low regard here, has declared that no GP racing should go ahead in Russia and that if it did, he for one would not attend.

Exactly that.  Though the comedy of errors broadcasts from his bunker also suggest he's trying to maintain some kind of grip on his inner circle and state apparatus.

[Squire Haggard]

A good article. Putin looks like even more of a cunt in his early days. i hope somebody gets the bastard with Polonium tea. 

''This feels very much like the end of an era. In November 1989, when the Berlin Wall came down, we believed that the old division of the world into East versus West was just history. Because the ideological conflict between capitalism and Communism had evaporated, there was a feeling that we were all basically on the same side.

The trouble was, for Vladimir Putin, the one-time KGB officer based in East Germany, the collapse of the old Soviet Union seems to have morphed into a bitter personal resentment which grew worse as the years went by. The fact that Ukraine, once a key part of the USSR, broke away from the Russian Federation was an insult to everything Putin believed in.''

External Link/Members Only

[sparkus]

A good article. Putin looks like even more of a cunt in his early days. i hope somebody gets the bastard with Polonium tea. 

''This feels very much like the end of an era. In November 1989, when the Berlin Wall came down, we believed that the old division of the world into East versus West was just history. Because the ideological conflict between capitalism and Communism had evaporated, there was a feeling that we were all basically on the same side.

The trouble was, for Vladimir Putin, the one-time KGB officer based in East Germany, the collapse of the old Soviet Union seems to have morphed into a bitter personal resentment which grew worse as the years went by. The fact that Ukraine, once a key part of the USSR, broke away from the Russian Federation was an insult to everything Putin believed in.''

External Link/Members Only

Don't discount also China watching every move here by the West, as it also has decades of resentment and humiliation to contend with over Taiwan.

While Putin was preparing to poison his ex-colleague in a London restaurant he had a dry run by poisoning pro-NATO Viktor Yushchenko during the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election.

Given their tendencies towards cyber crime and kompromat, perhaps this thread is being eagerly read in some state facility there.

[Whiteknight]

It looks like ''we will do more in days ahead on providing Ukraine with defensive weaponry.''  It reminds me of the same pig headed stupidity that led to WW!.  How about not arming Ukraine at all. I've yet to hear a Western leader say that we should listen to the concerns of Russia about having NATO on its border, and not allow Ukraine membership in future, for the sake of peace in Europe.

That's my thought too 

[Blackpool Rock]

Regarding NATO membership there's not really many more "bits" to sign up. Belarus, Ukraine and Finland are the only three left on Russia's borders that haven't signed up and Ukraine have been pestering to join for some time.

Interesting article on the BBC website "With hindsight, and there's starting to be a lot of that, some politicians and academics are saying that Nato should perhaps have changed its whole approach after the Berlin Wall came down - it should have avoided humiliating Moscow by taking its old satellites in Eastern Europe on board, and lining them up in a way that seemed to Putin's Russia to be confrontational.

The mere suggestion that Ukraine might one day join Nato (even though it has always been regarded as unlikely) enraged the Kremlin, and helped persuade President Putin that he must deal with Ukraine once and for all."

Sorry by "Bits" I actually meant the bits of Ukraine that aren't under Putins control could be fast tracked into Nato, Belarus is very pro Russian so no chance of them joining Nato anytime soon

Russia now needs to be treated like a pariah state until they get fed up and over throw Putin, talk about him having to make sure some of those around him are still in line.
Perhaps with modern technology a lot of Russians are a bit more enlightened these days, apparently those who follow the state sponsored media agree with Putin but many who use satellite media don't

Crimea was the start and he basically didn't suffer or get stopped which allowed him to think he could take more bits of Ukraine.
The next steps will be to secure those areas then start to put more and more Russian speaking and supporting people into other neighbouring areas before invading them on the basis that most of the people speak and support Russia.
It just continually creeps every few years 

[lostandfound]

Putin knows full well that NATO presents no threat at all to Russia; this is all too clear now but has not done so for many years. His real concern is having a  former USSR province morphing into a successful democracy on his doorstep and the example that presents to his own oppressed population.

Yes - exactly. Under 40s in Russia have little memory of the Iron Curtain and look at this situation and think wtf?!

A western armed insurgency in Afghanistan after the Russian invasion preceded the fall of the Soviet Empire.

Russia will put a puppet govt in Kiev but how will they control the second biggest country in Europe with Western armed resistance?

[Blackpool Rock]

Putin knows full well that NATO presents no threat at all to Russia; this is all too clear now but has not done so for many years. His real concern is having a  former USSR province morphing into a successful democracy on his doorstep and the example that presents to his own oppressed population.

We can at least hope that Russia will be completely ostracized by international sporting authorities and that the population will be mightily pissed off .
I see that Vettel, albeit  being held in low regard here, has declared that no GP racing should go ahead in Russia and that if it did, he for one would not attend.

OK it's a moot point perhaps but does Putin know that Nato is no threat or in his own head does he genuinely think we are 
I know that we aren't going to attack Russia but then I think with my Western democracy hat on, Putin on the other hand apart from having an axe to grind about the demise of the Soviet empire thinks differently.
What I would say is that if he does genuinely feel we are a threat to Russia then he's quite insecure but then again that's the sort of paranoid trait that defines so many dictators

As for having Ukraine as a sucessful democracy on it's border well yes they do produce an awful lot of wheat / grain amongst other things, not sure how good their economy is but certainly it won't be improved with Russia in charge.
Take a look at the former East Germany, it's had lots of money pumped in over the last 30 years but still isn't up to the standard of the West, just shows how run down and backward the Soviet controlled countries were

[Blackpool Rock]

Yes - exactly. Under 40s in Russia have little memory of the Iron Curtain and look at this situation and think wtf?!

A western armed insurgency in Afghanistan after the Russian invasion preceded the fall of the Soviet Empire.

Russia will put a puppet govt in Kiev but how will they control the second biggest country in Europe with Western armed resistance?

I'm sure it was mentioned earlier that there had been protests in 56 Russian cities about the war and 1000's of arrests, bearing in mind this is a country where protests are banned

[sir wanksalot]

OK it's a moot point perhaps but does Putin know that Nato is no threat or in his own head does he genuinely think we are 
I know that we aren't going to attack Russia but then I think with my Western democracy hat on, Putin on the other hand apart from having an axe to grind about the demise of the Soviet empire thinks differently.
What I would say is that if he does genuinely feel we are a threat to Russia then he's quite insecure but then again that's the sort of paranoid trait that defines so many dictators

As for having Ukraine as a sucessful democracy on it's border well yes they do produce an awful lot of wheat / grain amongst other things, not sure how good their economy is but certainly it won't be improved with Russia in charge.
Take a look at the former East Germany, it's had lots of money pumped in over the last 30 years but still isn't up to the standard of the West, just shows how run down and backward the Soviet controlled countries were

If Putin invades or attacks another NATO country then we are at war otherwise NATO will be seen to be a toothless alliance. We would have to declare war against Russia.

My hope is that he isn't that arrogant or detached from reality to consider doing so but from what I've read he's been behaving like a paranoid despot during the pandemic. He doesn't use the internet or a computer apparently. He gets his information presumably from his advisors and as can often happen with dictators his advisors will tell him what he wants to hear.

Let's not forget how the international community reacted to Putin grabbing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. We all celebrated that occasion by participating in the World Cup in Russia only a few years later.

[lostandfound]

OK it's a moot point perhaps but does Putin know that Nato is no threat or in his own head does he genuinely think we are 
I know that we aren't going to attack Russia but then I think with my Western democracy hat on, Putin on the other hand apart from having an axe to grind about the demise of the Soviet empire thinks differently.
What I would say is that if he does genuinely feel we are a threat to Russia then he's quite insecure but then again that's the sort of paranoid trait that defines so many dictators

As for having Ukraine as a sucessful democracy on it's border well yes they do produce an awful lot of wheat / grain amongst other things, not sure how good their economy is but certainly it won't be improved with Russia in charge.
Take a look at the former East Germany, it's had lots of money pumped in over the last 30 years but still isn't up to the standard of the West, just shows how run down and backward the Soviet controlled countries were

Also rich in natural resources.

External Link/Members Only press.

With Ukraine added, Russia is a commodities superpower. Ukraine also the poorest country in Europe. With Western investment could be very rich given its natural resources and huge size.

Yep - many commentators reckon Putin has lost it. Apparently a recluse due to security fears, even more so as he shields from covid. Alone with his paranoid delusions and dreams of empire.

He's a blast from the past - this war is like something from 100 years ago.

[Marmalade]

So how far back do we go in history 

In Europe as I see it after WW2 Russia seized the opportunity to basically steal countries and form the USSR so these countries never belonged to them anyway 

I find it’s very hard to be purely objective about things. We talk of the Roman Empire “conquering” countries — which has a slight air of approval or manliness: but if we consider what they did to Greek culture we might say “stole” or “raped” or “overthrew” all of which suggest something more slimy — at least by our own moral standards which on the whole we judge to be very much better than those of communist governments. In times of crisis, patriotism even demands it. We shouldn’t sit tinkering even “as Rome burns” if caught up in it.

So far, it is only affecting us tangentially, upsetting us morally, and threatening to hurt us in our pockets: but watching the scenes of misery, bravery despair and panic in Kiev I cannot help but feel for those people there. 

[Watts.E.Dunn]

I find it’s very hard to be purely objective about things. We talk of the Roman Empire “conquering” countries — which has a slight air of approval or manliness: but if we consider what they did to Greek culture we might say “stole” or “raped” or “overthrew” all of which suggest something more slimy — at least by our own moral standards which on the whole we judge to be very much better than those of communist governments. In times of crisis, patriotism even demands it. We shouldn’t sit tinkering even “as Rome burns” if caught up in it.

So far, it is only affecting us tangentially, upsetting us morally, and threatening to hurt us in our pockets: but watching the scenes of misery, bravery despair and panic in Kiev I cannot help but feel for those people there. 

Indeed and what might anyone do if they a were in the Ukrainine presidents position?

He's up against superoir military power, he hasnt got any realistic hope of holding out againt what he's up against, so it seems as sad and  distastefull as it is the longer it goes on for the more of his countrymen are going to get killed.

Lord alone knows what Putin might do, i wouldnt put him past using battlefield Nukes if he felt they were needed to shock the Ukrainianis to give in:(

Brave words from the Ukrainian leaders and defiant too, but the aggressor is a massive country thats directly connected to yours!, this isnt Afganistain where the attacker is a long way away its next bloody door!.

And really what does Putin want?, he's not going the restore the old Soviet union, he may be after Belerus and the Ukraine together and with that he's got a huge area and already he's one of the largerst countres on earth!. He seems to want to be remmbered as the man who restored russia to what it was once, he could make Russia great in a differing directions he not only needs to move on like the west europe and suchlike has done but it seems the rest of the world!....

[Marmalade]

Indeed it’s difficult. We felt for people to in Syria, in Afghanistan: but people in Kiev are so much closer to what we call those of a normal European city — it is easier to identify with their desperate situation. We’ve maybe traded with people there, on Amazon or elsewhere. Kiev, before the attack, looked like a normal European city. The Ukrainian representative at the United Nations has spoken with such great dignity. Their president, knowing the odds, hasn’t fled. If the rumoured hyperbaric missiles are used the subways are unlikely to protect the people from a horrific death. The people believe in and take such pride in their country that their courage will be remembered and respected. Anyone who has ever suffered at all must be able to sense their pain, but also their integrity. The Russian foreign minister has sneakily invoked the comparison with Iraq.

What does Putin want? American Intelligence reported bafflement, believing that if he takes Ukraine, he will not be able to maintain his hold and an occupation. Either he has made a massive miscalculation (he has formidable weapons which he may feel frustrated have neither been used or recognised) or he is after something else. The former is possible but incompatible with what we know of him. Perhaps it is a grudge that the former Ukraine President who was friendly to Russia was displaced by one that was not. The other, rather unthinkable possibility than no-one wants to mention is that he might actually want to spark a world war.

There’s not much more we can do. Briefly, I am slightly puzzled over the SWIFT banking sanctions issue — which I think the EU has refused to sign up to.

[Kelvin Smyth]

As with other comments it's difficult to see how this (in the long run) will actually work out in Russia's favour.

Occupying the country was always going to be the "easy" part considering the disparity in the size of the two armies. Having said that the invasion appears to be meeting stiff resistance from the Ukrainians and (from the limited information we are being provided) the Russians are suffering losses.

Holding a country the size and population of Ukraine will be the difficult part. The remnants of the Ukrainian army will simply disperse into the civilian population and carry out a prolonged guerrilla campaign. Ukraine has long borders with NATO countries (which Russia does not have the troops to control) so supplying the resistance with suitable weapons will be impossible to prevent. I wouldn't be surprised if western special forces were deployed to advice/train the resistance.

The Russians have short memories as the very same scenario panned out when they invaded Afghanistan, and the western supply of stinger (hand held surface to air) missiles turned out to be the game changer, that eventually persuaded the Russians that they could not hold the country.

I predict that exactly the same scenario will (eventually) play out in Ukraine. The sad part being that the Ukrainians will have horrendous suffering and civilian and military casualties in the process.

When the Russian military deaths reach a tipping point, they will pull out claiming they have achieved their goal of demilitarized the country. 

Whether Putin survives this through the Russian population deposing him (or more likely the Russian military deciding he is a liability) is anyone's guess.       

[lostandfound]

The optics are awful for Russia. Obvs Putin doesn't care or he would not have embarked upon this venture. But the rest of his nation?


Although Putin would obviously wish things had gone faster, hence the rant yesterday addressed at the Ukranian army.