The government wanted to go down the 'herd immunity' route but got spooked by the model that predicted huge amounts of deaths if they did this. Then the government said we would not test but then back tracked to say they would now. I know we have had this debate before ww but my view is that a healthy dose of critic and questioning is a good thing.
The model that spooked them is just that and maybe right or not but agree it's generally accepted to be right. Time will tell.
Re the health service point, then I think the USA is likely to suffer so badly due to their horrid system where we are better prepared than them but far behind Germany. Imagine what it will be like in third world countries!!
I do think the lockdown needs to end quickly and testing is the answer and the examples from other countries that follow the high testing and tracking route confirm that. Our government fucked up on this point and were behind due to that. That's bad for everyone, and health and the economy will suffer more than should have.
The herd immunity thing, yes there does appear to have been a change of tack.
Testing? I suspect that just as with masks, they knew there was no way they'd ever get hold of enough, certainly by the time they changed tack anyway.
There was certainly a realisation that there would be swathes of death and an overrun NHS if they didn't take more action.
From what I can make out, Germany had a head-start with testing because the enormous Pharma company Roche are based there, they had all the tools at their fingertips.
Interestingly, Sweden are where we were two weeks ago and they haven't taken big measures yet. I saw on Newsnight last night that the politicians aren't even getting involved yet, their scientists are effectively making the decisions. But they've seen what's happened elsewhere and some are starting to lose their nerve. That will be very interesting. The other thing to consider is that Germans and Swedes will do as they are told and be a bit more rational about it. The exact opposite of Mediterraneans like Italy and Spain, where on an individual and personal level they were all still kissing and hugging and coffee-shop-ing. Us Brits are somewhere in-between that I think. Yes, it does make a difference, national 'character'.
Yes, everyone knows testing is the answer now, but now we are in a queue for scarce resources because everywhere wants test kits. This will now be a limiting factor for us.
So yes, if we'd done more, earlier, we'd probably be in a better position. But we are where we are.