Hypersonics and defence economics

[Marmalade]

Sun Tzu, in the ancient classic The Art of War said I think that the first rule of war is to avoid war, but the second one, if war is unavoidable, is to win.

These are just some thoughts -- any experts on the subjects are welcome to correct them. I'm thinking that as Afghanistan was allowed for discussion, defence situation regarding Ukraine is probably allowable (without getting into party politics). If the mods disagree then they are of course welcome to close the thread before it takes off.

The West has poured trillions into Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, places with arguable results but without a major standoff against the other two superpowers. During that time, Russia and possibly China, have developed hypersonic missiles with strike capacities that are hard to defeat while the West is still in the research stage. In other words, the West is not in a great position to engage in a fight with Russia, or Russia and China combined. Now we are in a position with Ukraine, which means much more to Russia (or Mr Putin) than Syria or the other places. Ukraine is not part of NATO, so the West has no obligation (But Poland of course is part of NATO). Sanctions might simply raise the stakes.

If Russia takes Ukraine, the West, among other things, will freeze assets of many Russian oligarchs in the West. Bad for Russia, but might not harm Putin's position and so have limited effect on Russian warmongering.

[Blackpool Rock]

Putin and Xi Jinping are both manipulative cunts but Jinping is a bit more subtle about it as he doesn't want to rock the boat too much and risk disrupting trade with the west.

Putin has his hands on a lot of Europe's bollocks with the threat of shutting off the gas, another reason why i'm so in favour of more renewable energy, despite us not getting hardly any gas from Russia we are still at the mercy of the market that he has a big hand in controlling 

China set to become the worlds biggest economy in the next decade I believe, the west needs to scale back how much cheap shit we buy from them and accept things will cost more as a result.
Despite all the human rights abuses etc that go on in China we all seemingly stick our heads in the sand and ignore it because we want cheap shit 
And poor countries are seemingly queuing up to do deals with China who are raping their countries of resources, these are the same countries who don't / didn't want anything to do with us because of our colonial past when we also did bad things however i'd argue it wasn't frowned upon back then and we have recognised the wrongdoing and evolved past it, China hasn't 

Putin probably feels emboldened as nothing was done about him annexing Crimea 8 years ago, I see that as a test case so he thought he'd mass troops on Ukraine's borders and force wouldn't be met with anything other than a token force in which case he would simply walk straight in 
No idea whether we have enough men and equipment in place to defend it but hopefully he will decide he has a proper fight on his hands and "Pull back from his exercises"

[mr.bluesky]

Sun Tzu, in the ancient classic The Art of War said I think that the first rule of war is to avoid war, but the second one, if war is unavoidable, is to win.

These are just some thoughts -- any experts on the subjects are welcome to correct them. I'm thinking that as Afghanistan was allowed for discussion, defence situation regarding Ukraine is probably allowable (without getting into party politics). If the mods disagree then they are of course welcome to close the thread before it takes off.

Ukraine is not part of NATO, so the West has no obligation (But Poland of course is part of NATO). Sanctions might simply raise the stakes.

This is why it's all about to kick off because Ukraine wants to join NATO. Putin won't put up with a NATO country on its border. Can you imagine what would happen if the USA had air bases in Ukraine within easy striking distance of Russia.

[Squire Haggard]

The US didn't like it when nukes were found close to its border in 1962. Now they, and the West, think that its OK to for Ukraine to join NATO while sharing a land border with Russia. IMO, Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO, in the interests of peace in Europe.

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[spiralnotebook]

Some very good points on here, do we have analysts as members? 
It amuses me that our politicians threaten Russia with retaliation, maybe waiting until it gets warmer so when the gas is pulled we don`t get pensioners freezing to death. Can`t have bad PR besmirching political careers hey.
Being an annoying cunt I would put the point that Putin is being very restrained after years of EU/western provocation, having a NATO military presence next door would give him bad popularity points, hey just like our politicians.

[Marmalade]

Putin has a point about not wanting NATO missiles on his doorstep just as America didn’t want Ruskie ones in Cuba and that could have been answered by declaring Ukraine an independent state, thereby rejecting its hope of joining NATO. It sounds a simple solution: yet if Russia is allowed to keep annexing countries and regions that is against America’s interests.

There are also strategic concerns. Motor Sich, in the south of Ukraine, manufactures I understand a lot of aircraft engines, particularly ones used in military aircraft. It can dodge sanctions by selling stuff to Belarus intended for Russia but China is also now a customer.

There are many options open to Putin. He can assist the rebels in Eastern Ukraine to achieve breakaway state status. He claims that Russian supporters are being tortured — which seems unlikely — but he might use it as a pretext. If he can push Ukraine towards greater civil war or unrest, he might step in Syria-style to ‘bring about peace’ while killing any opponents. If he attacks Ukraine, the West is neither in a position to defend Ukraine and is unlikely to attack Russian forces directly. The simplest tactic might be for him to depose or assassinate the current Ukraine President and install a pro-Russian leader to rule out joining NATO, garner popularity at home, and have more direct control over Ukraine pipelines and manufacturing. The flow of refugees to the West would be likely further to compound the West’s problems — or rather Europe’s — something that would not overly worry America.

[mradventures]

if they are firing hypersonics, the situation is already nuclear war, so they will also face alot of destruction... (from our "slow" missles

[Watts.E.Dunn]

I think that to some extent Ukrainie and Russia arent that disimiler to Northern Ireland and the neigh on civil war that went on there for years.

Mind you for better or worse a negoiated settlment was reached ..

Still dont think he will "invade" as we might see it, a bit of trouble there here there softly soflly invade monkey...

Unless it was just all a show of strength?...

[maxQ]

The West has poured trillions into Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, places with arguable results but witho
ut a major standoff against the other two superpowers. During that time, Russia and possibly China, have developed hypersonic missiles with strike capacities that are hard to defeat while the West is still in the research stage. In other words, the West is not in a great position to engage in a fight with Russia, or Russia and China combined.

In think a lot of the stories about hypersonic missiles is just the US MIC trying to get an increase in spending, they love to big up their enemy du jour. the US and their allies do have some military issues but its not linked to hypersonics. BTW a missile moving at hypersonic speed in the atmosphere will generate a large amount of heat, not as hard to detect as you might think

Now we are in a position with Ukraine, which means much more to Russia (or Mr Putin) than Syria or the other places. Ukraine is not part of NATO, so the West has no obligation (But Poland of course is part of NATO). Sanctions might simply raise the stakes.

If Russia takes Ukraine, the West, among other things, will freeze assets of many Russian oligarchs in the West. Bad for Russia, but might not harm Putin's position and so have limited effect on Russian warmongering.

I don't think Putin wants to invade the Ukraine, its very rare for a war to go as planned, even if the Russians "win" it would be very expensive, Putin is willing to settle for a federal Ukraine where the Eastern states have a veto over NATO membership, but Zelensky and the neo cons detest Russia (always have, always will) so its doubtful they would ever agree to it

If the Russians do invade IMO the best thing to do is stop at the Dnieper river and take Kiev, then take the area along the Black sea, leave a small rump state in the West where the people who don't want to live in greater Russia can move to

[Doc Holliday]

Putin is in full control. He will invade this week as he cannot back down. Ukraine is fucked, but Russia will struggle to take control of the whole country. Our daily lives are fucked too when the cyber attacks commence. If you though Covid was disruptive?

[sparkus]

In think a lot of the stories about hypersonic missiles is just the US MIC trying to get an increase in spending, they love to big up their enemy du jour. the US and their allies do have some military issues but its not linked to hypersonics. BTW a missile moving at hypersonic speed in the atmosphere will generate a large amount of heat, not as hard to detect as you might think


I don't think Putin wants to invade the Ukraine, its very rare for a war to go as planned, even if the Russians "win" it would be very expensive, Putin is willing to settle for a federal Ukraine where the Eastern states have a veto over NATO membership, but Zelensky and the neo cons detest Russia (always have, always will) so its doubtful they would ever agree to it

If the Russians do invade IMO the best thing to do is stop at the Dnieper river and take Kiev, then take the area along the Black sea, leave a small rump state in the West where the people who don't want to live in greater Russia can move to

Probably the most sensible comments I've ever read on UKP.

[Marmalade]

In think a lot of the stories about hypersonic missiles is just the US MIC trying to get an increase in spending, they love to big up their enemy du jour. the US and their allies do have some military issues but its not linked to hypersonics. BTW a missile moving at hypersonic speed in the atmosphere will generate a large amount of heat, not as hard to detect as you might think

I don't think Putin wants to invade the Ukraine, its very rare for a war to go as planned, even if the Russians "win" it would be very expensive, Putin is willing to settle for a federal Ukraine where the Eastern states have a veto over NATO membership, but Zelensky and the neo cons detest Russia (always have, always will) so its doubtful they would ever agree to it

If the Russians do invade IMO the best thing to do is stop at the Dnieper river and take Kiev, then take the area along the Black sea, leave a small rump state in the West where the people who don't want to live in greater Russia can move to

I think your points about Putin are a considerable possibility -- though it could mean his 'invasion' takes an unconventional form.

Regarding hypersonics, I think there is more evidence on the ground. The West is a couple of years behind Russia on hypersonics. Russia has already demonstrated launch capability, underlines by a launch in the last 24hrs. Tracking them might not be too big a problem (the West after all is, I understand, ahead on quite a lot of tracking methods) but stopping them seems to me to be another issue altogether. Commanders have merely a fraction of the response time associated with most existing weapons and are reliant on satellites for precise tracking, plus the intercept needs to get the hypersonic in its boost phase before it begins glide maneuverability. China's one additionally can go over the South Pole and reach the USA from a direction where the country has neither ground-based radar nor perfect coverage from infra-red satellites that can spot rocket engines. So the military, reasonably in many ways perhaps, wants an increase in spending to offer an equivalent deterrent rather than amping up unproven defence systems.

I've been looking at info from The Economist, which has a pretty good research division, though there's an article here that suggests that although the US is behind Russia and China not everyone in the military agrees that getting their hypersonics up to speed is the best use of money.

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There's an article from Science magazine suggesting America is developing another defence system but that again expected to take several years to be up and running -- nice pictures though.
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What are the "other military issues" you speak of that America has?

[FiveKnuckles]

was looking at the map of the black sea,  logically Putin would want invade the section below Maruipol to connect with Crimea.

Keep an eye on Moldova, with some assistance from Russia/Belarus they could end up with a nice section by the sea and prosper.

[maxQ]

What are the "other military issues" you speak of that America has?

If the US or NATO can't impose its will on Afghan goat herders, they won't be able to defeat Russia/China anytime soon, Chelsea Manning was allowed to join the US Army, the Russians would have told him, NYET

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The fish rots from the head

[mr.bluesky]

Putin is in full control. He will invade this week as he cannot back down. Ukraine is fucked, but Russia will struggle to take control of the whole country. Our daily lives are fucked too when the cyber attacks commence. If you though Covid was disruptive?

Does that mean we won't be able to access ukpunting or wordle 

[Doc Holliday]

Does that mean we won't be able to access ukpunting or wordle 

I'm sure Stapler has left malware already 

Conventional warfare is massively expensive and the Russian economy is in no position to sustain it. Nobody would intentionally go down the Nuclear route unless deranged (which Putin is not)

But Cyber is the new Nuclear in terms of deterrent. Russia has developed this route. It is inexpensive and effective and does not in itself kill millions and pollute the planet. It is an almost perfect deterrent.

Russia has developed the means to infiltrate our social media platforms to give it greater influence globally in terms of disruption and misinformation. It also has the ability to attack infrastructure which the west is highly susceptible to (utilities, transport, banking etc). In turn Putin has established almost total overall control over Russia's own infrastructure making it more resilient to counter attack due to its centrally controlled defensive capability. We do not have that.

In recent years Russia has already been testing its capability on Ukraine. When it invades it will undoubtedly launch a massive cyber attack in conjunction with troops on the ground.

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He has us over a barrel.

[Doc Holliday]

'Cobra' (season 2) is worth a watch. Yes its fictional and may or may not exaggerate, but it demonstrates how cyber is the new deterrent (without spoiling the ending  )

[Thephoenix]

Putin is in full control. He will invade this week as he cannot back down. Ukraine is fucked, but Russia will struggle to take control of the whole country. Our daily lives are fucked too when the cyber attacks commence. If you though Covid was disruptive?

You're not often wrong Doc, but I hope you are this time.

[Doc Holliday]

You're not often wrong Doc, but I hope you are this time.

I'm often wrong and I also hope this is one of them 

Whilst we cannot believe what the US is telling us, if reports are correct about the Russian Field Hospitals being now fully set up and operational, including blood supplies etc then there is no reason to do that for 'sabre rattling' but is more indicative of definite intent? It has cost Russia a pretty penny to mobilise like this. Putin cannot just dismantle it all and return to barracks without having 'won' something.

[mr.bluesky]

I'm often wrong and I also hope this is one of them 

Whilst we cannot believe what the US is telling us, if reports are correct about the Russian Field Hospitals being now fully set up and operational, including blood supplies etc then there is no reason to do that for 'sabre rattling' but is more indicative of definite intent? It has cost Russia a pretty penny to mobilise like this. Putin cannot just dismantle it all and return to barracks without having 'won' something.

Your absolutely right Doc why go through all the expense of setting up field hospitals if it was only an exercise 

[mills_and_bhuna]

After Iraq and Iran I'm amazed that anyone still trusts the US and anything that comes from their intelligence services.
Practically every foreign adventure they get involved in makes things worse.
And I have to listen to our pathetic posturing neoliberal excuse for a sovereign state gonalong with it.

[timsussex]

a week ago on radio4 an analyst said that Russia wants to strengthen ties with China so wont invade while the winter Olympics are on

They are just finishing - watch this space

[maxQ]

Your absolutely right Doc why go through all the expense of setting up field hospitals if it was only an exercise 

At this point the Russians have made money on the whole thing due to the rise in energy prices

[maxQ]

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Well worth a read

[Squire Haggard]

Live Kiev webcam, with sound.  There are others on YouTube.

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[Doc Holliday]

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Well worth a read

As are the counter arguments in comments ..thanks. The reality is that, as many commentators have said, nobody really knows whether they will invade other than Putin.

What will happen should they invade is also unknown. The balance of probability is it will be over quickly, but as was said earlier, nothing can be certain in war.

[sir wanksalot]

I don't think Russia will invade.

Putin is playing classic Russian wargames. Prod, provoke and assess the reaction. Say what you want about the Ruskies but they are far more adept at trying to shape the geo political landscape than we can ever manage.

The West is responding in kind by adopting the recent trend of hysteria-icing (I know it's not a word ) something that hasn't actually happened.

Let's not forget how many wars the US has gotten involved in with the aim of "regime change". There is no right or wrong side just different perspectives.

My worry is that Russia (and China) are playing the long game with China being especially calculating by their foreign economic policy.

[PepeMAGA]

While the US are behind on hypersonic missiles (we think) they are ahead on missile defence... Which may not be effective against hypersonics, Russia and China don't have the same level of defence against conventional icbms, so in some ways they are cancelled out again.

[Marmalade]

“If they had to choose between the Eurasian Customs Union and the European Union, 24% in Eastern Ukraine (including Kharkiv Oblast) preferred the ECU and 20% preferred the EU (in Donbas: 33% for the ECU, 21% for the EU).” (External Link/Members Only)

Add to that the large resources apparently poured into Crimea by Russia after annexation and the long-standing fighting in the East of the country, the previous president’s allegiance to Russia, and the new president’s alleged inexperience, we can maybe glimpse some of Russia’s leverage. Their massive show of force could inspire disillusioned Ukrainians (or Russian saboteurs) faithful to the old regime to commit acts of violence which Kiev — especially looking at its record in the past few years — is incapable of putting down. Others may not like Russian influence but they don’t exactly have much ties with the West. If Russia escalates and Biden responds, possibly with covert operations, the demographic scenario could look more VietNam than Northern Ireland.

[Marmalade]

So Putin says Kyiv planning 'nuclear weapons' ...
Doubtless he got his info from the same chap that leaked the information about Iraq.
External Link/Members Only
 

[sir wanksalot]

So Putin says Kyiv planning 'nuclear weapons' ...
Doubtless he got his info from the same chap that leaked the information about Iraq.
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He surmised it from the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany who said that if Ukraine cannot join NATO then they will have to find other means to defend themselves i.e. nuclear weapons.

Like most things in politics there isn't always a good guy and a bad guy

[bodybuilder1997]

Mainstream media have been labelling Russia the bogeyman that’s been wanting to nuke all of Europe for the past few decades. Almost the same way we’ve been told Middle East is full of terrorists that wants to bomb the west.
Wars that we’ve been involved in have only served the ultra elite and neocons that rake in billions of our hard earned tax money yet we’re constantly fooled to believe it is for our security and safety.

Now we have neo cons prodding Russia, and threatening Nuclear war on our continent all because USA is slowly losing its hegemony power and the ultra elite will not give that up even if it costs the live of millions of innocent folk. I think it’s sad Europe have no backbone to even allow American ultra elite dictate war proceedings when USA itself is kept safely away thousands of miles away.

USA know that if it doesn’t go to war with Russia **soon** , China and Russia for sure will destroy American hegemony which it should do imo. With NOrd Stream 2 all but finished and belt and road almost complete, these two huge projects which benefit the common people at the expensive of the ultra elite , will surely bring a multipolar and equal  world 🌍

If we were to go to war Russia, the only losers would be common people like us. If we were to lose the war, we will die. But if we “win” , what do we gain?

[timsussex]

a week ago on radio4 an analyst said that Russia wants to strengthen ties with China so wont invade while the winter Olympics are on

They are just finishing - watch this space

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wheres the "I told you" Emoji ?

[Blackpool Rock]

Mainstream media have been labelling Russia the bogeyman that’s been wanting to nuke all of Europe for the past few decades. Almost the same way we’ve been told Middle East is full of terrorists that wants to bomb the west.
Wars that we’ve been involved in have only served the ultra elite and neocons that rake in billions of our hard earned tax money yet we’re constantly fooled to believe it is for our security and safety.

Now we have neo cons prodding Russia, and threatening Nuclear war on our continent all because USA is slowly losing its hegemony power and the ultra elite will not give that up even if it costs the live of millions of innocent folk. I think it’s sad Europe have no backbone to even allow American ultra elite dictate war proceedings when USA itself is kept safely away thousands of miles away.

USA know that if it doesn’t go to war with Russia **soon** , China and Russia for sure will destroy American hegemony which it should do imo. With NOrd Stream 2 all but finished and belt and road almost complete, these two huge projects which benefit the common people at the expensive of the ultra elite , will surely bring a multipolar and equal  world 🌍

If we were to go to war Russia, the only losers would be common people like us. If we were to lose the war, we will die. But if we “win” , what do we gain?

As soon as I see a post open with the words "mainstream media" I despair at the crock that will follow 

So what's your answer then just let Russia and China do exactly what they want and the whole world lives happy ever after 

[sir wanksalot]

As soon as I see a post open with the words "mainstream media" I despair at the crock that will follow 

So what's your answer then just let Russia and China do exactly what they want and the whole world lives happy ever after 

 

Times have changed. I don't think it's necessary for powers to use military means to extend influence and power. China has been very aggessive in reaching into the corners of the globe without a drop of blood being spilt.

The West are too greedy to turn Chinese money away

[Blackpool Rock]

Times have changed. I don't think it's necessary for powers to use military means to extend influence and power. China has been very aggessive in reaching into the corners of the globe without a drop of blood being spilt.

The West are too greedy to turn Chinese money away

Yes cyber crime / hacking etc are the new covert cold war tactics and China; N Korea; Russia et al appear to know this and are putting a lot of effort into it but of course it's probably a very cost effective way of creating a lot of damage.

The West needs to get their heads together and have a joint strategy to stop the enemy but as you say individually every country wants to buy cheap shit and continues to stick it's head in the sand 

[Squire Haggard]

I was wanting to hear the views of someone from Moscow. Unfortunately the stupid cow on Sky News kept butting in, and talking over him. WTF is the point of inviting someone to speak, then continuously stopping him? He's probably got a better understanding of the situation than she has. 

From 11.38ish he's not allowed to speak.

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PS he was Vyacheslav Nikonov
First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs. I think he knows more than she does about the crisis.

[bodybuilder1997]

Yes cyber crime / hacking etc are the new covert cold war tactics and China; N Korea; Russia et al appear to know this and are putting a lot of effort into it but of course it's probably a very cost effective way of creating a lot of damage.

The West needs to get their heads together and have a joint strategy to stop the enemy but as you say individually every country wants to buy cheap shit and continues to stick it's head in the sand 

Oh dear me 🤦‍♂️
Remind me which country has been responsible for most civilian deaths in the last twenty deaths ?

[Blackpool Rock]

Oh dear me 🤦‍♂️
Remind me which country has been responsible for most civilian deaths in the last twenty deaths ?

China 

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[lostandfound]

I see the FTSE is back in +ve territory. I guess they've concluded it's not really an invasion - yet.

And the spirit of Stapler is alive and well it seems. 

Mind, if you look on Twitter it's like an alternative universe with all the Russian trolls pitching in.

[Marmalade]

Look at the bigger picture. Two big powers, one less reserved about using strong arm tactics.

East Ukraine has been waging civil war for several years. Russia going in heavily will probably greatly reduce human rights but might also reduce the cumulative ongoing death toll by sheer exertion of power. If they do it well, the East Ukrainians will eventually thank them, as did the Crimeans. That will weaken any ‘democratic’ poll from Kiev, which will eventually accept its lot if Russia leaves western Ukraine alone for a bit. The West will carry on saber-rattling with sanctions then eventually negotiate.

EU populaces are not keen on accepting Ukraine into the EU. Formally, Ukraine doesn’t have the permanent democracy, sustainable rule of law, and a sustainable market economy to fulfil EU entry conditions. Ethnically, the large proportion are Russians. The main religion is Eastern Orthodox Christianity, which although not problematic does not blend easily with RC. The main push for EU or NATO membership comes from the bureaucrats.

[maxQ]

The West needs to get their heads together and have a joint strategy to stop the enemy but as you say individually every country wants to buy cheap shit and continues to stick it's head in the sand 

Do we have to view them as enemies, just because the neo cons hate Russia doesn't mean we all have to, same with China

Opposing both Russia and China has just pushed them together, the west might have been able to deal with them separatly, but once they started working together they can't be beat at this point

[Blackpool Rock]

Do we have to view them as enemies, just because the neo cons hate Russia doesn't mean we all have to, same with China

Opposing both Russia and China has just pushed them together, the west might have been able to deal with them separatly, but once they started working together they can't be beat at this point

Thing is it appears to me that we have tried extending the hand of friendship but they just view it as us being soft and continue to advance their causes.
It may be that we were actually better off before the Berlin wall came down 
At least there was a known bad situation with a standoff / stalemate

[maxQ]

Thing is it appears to me that we have tried extending the hand of friendship

But thats just not how the Russians see it, every time another country close to them joins NATO they get more worried about western intentions, they were promised NATO would not expand eastwards, on top of that they see countries close to Russia being attacked, Serbia, Syria, Libya, Iraq, soon Iran. do you actually beleive the US is run by hippy peaceniks, well its not. they will butcher millions if they think they can get away with it

[Marmalade]

I was wanting to hear the views of someone from Moscow. Unfortunately the stupid cow on Sky News kept butting in, and talking over him.

Indeed it’s annoying trying just to hear what the different parties are saying. I tried flicking between Sky and RT news at 10 and both sides spout a lot of what ifs and then the party line.

RT had reporting from the disputed region whereas Sky was standing on the border and words filled with dread but not many facts rather than ‘someone said’ etc. RT had several peasant-type talking heads in Donbass itself all saying at least there will now be order and we won’t be getting bombed. Although Donbass is heavily pro-Russian there was no attempt at balance either.

Looked up the Minsk agreement, which Russia says Kiev has violated (which it probably has) and is therefore no longer applicable yet the Agreement looked eminently reasonable (Switzerland wasps signatory, not America). Sky overall was more helpful than the BBC I felt, which was keen to get onto things we can see, like floods.

A big problem is that Ukraine doesn’t have a stable democracy. The Minsk Agreement assured greater degrees of autonomy but it was signed by the previous, pro-Russian President, not the pro-Western current President. Putin puts forth eminently reasonable-sounding arguments, quoting laws and agreements, but the West believes he shit-stirred the conflict in Donvass in the first place.

[sparkus]

I wonder what Sergei makes of all this

[sir wanksalot]

But thats just not how the Russians see it, every time another country close to them joins NATO they get more worried about western intentions, they were promised NATO would not expand eastwards, on top of that they see countries close to Russia being attacked, Serbia, Syria, Libya, Iraq, soon Iran. do you actually beleive the US is run by hippy peaceniks, well its not. they will butcher millions if they think they can get away with it

Exactly. It's easy for us (the West) to be sanctimonious about it when it's not on our doorstep but I wonder how the US would react if Russia created a military alliance with Canada and Mexico.

For the history buffs we all know what happened with Cuba in the 1960's.

[mr.bluesky]

I wonder what Sergei makes of all this

He's probably been called up to serve the motherland ( like stapler)

[Squire Haggard]

Indeed it’s annoying trying just to hear what the different parties are saying. I tried flicking between Sky and RT news at 10 and both sides spout a lot of what ifs and then the party line.

RT had reporting from the disputed region whereas Sky was standing on the border and words filled with dread but not many facts rather than ‘someone said’ etc. RT had several peasant-type talking heads in Donbass itself all saying at least there will now be order and we won’t be getting bombed. Although Donbass is heavily pro-Russian there was no attempt at balance either.

Looked up the Minsk agreement, which Russia says Kiev has violated (which it probably has) and is therefore no longer applicable yet the Agreement looked eminently reasonable (Switzerland wasps signatory, not America). Sky overall was more helpful than the BBC I felt, which was keen to get onto things we can see, like floods.

A big problem is that Ukraine doesn’t have a stable democracy. The Minsk Agreement assured greater degrees of autonomy but it was signed by the previous, pro-Russian President, not the pro-Western current President. Putin puts forth eminently reasonable-sounding arguments, quoting laws and agreements, but the West believes he shit-stirred the conflict in Donvass in the first place.

I have to admit that in normal times, I forget that RT exists. I've had a look, yesterday and today.

[Watts.E.Dunn]

We could stop this now where it hertz, em stop seeing their wimmen!, imagine all those dames moaning at old Vlad eh;?...