STIs Transmission probabilities and percentages in UK

[Jason]

There are some pathetic utter morons out there who exercise bareback sex with prostitutes and even advocate it by bringing examples of that catching HIV is less likely than getting hit and killed by a car or a thunderbolt. Although it is true that HIV is difficult to catch the other nasty STIs are VERY PROBABLE to catch especially within a high risk bareback community.

To formally prove what we all sensible punters know I decided I do a little probability calculation of the transmission of each major STI (gathering data from NHS) and here are the results: 

1. Probability of STI transmission from an infected female to a non-infected male from one unprotected vaginal sex intercourse:
Genital Herpes(if not suppressed):  30% 
Genital Herpes(if suppressed) : 10%               
Gonorrhea: 25% 
Chlamydia:  20% 
Syphilis:  20%   
HPV/Genital Warts:  10%  (suppression does not reduce the average risk)
Hepatitis B: 5% 
HIV (if the infected person is NOT in antiretroviral therapy): 0.05%
HIV (if the infected person is in antiretroviral therapy): 0.002%

2. Percentages of UK female population aged 18-25 that are infected with STIs (at any given day):
Genital Herpes: 21%  (84%)
Gonorrhoea: 3%   (12%)                               
Chlamydia: 10%  (40%)                             
Syphilis: 0.04%   (0.16%)
HPV/Genital Warts:  26%  (100%)
Hepatitis B: 0.02%  (0.08%)
HIV: 0.1%  (0.4%)

Note:
For high risk groups (e.g. bareback prostitutes) the percentages are multiplied by 4. The percentages of infected women who belong to high risk groups are shown in brackets.

3. Overall probability of catching an STI from one encounter of unprotected vaginal intercourse with a person of unknown (to you) STI status:
Genital Herpes(if not suppressed):  6.3%   (25.2%)
Genital Herpes(if suppressed):  2.1%  (8.4%)
Gonorrhea: 0.75%  (3%)
Chlamydia:  2%  (8%)
Syphilis: 0.008%   (0.032%)
HPV/Genital Warts: 2.6%  (10%)
Hepatitis B: 0.001%  (0.004%)
HIV(if NOT in antiretroviral therapy): 0.00005%  i.e. 1 in 2 million  (0.0002% i.e. 1 in 500 thousand)
HIV (if in antiretroviral therapy): 0.000002%  i.e. 1 in 50 million!!! (0.000008 i.e. 1 in 12.5 million)

Notes:
(i) I assume that the woman either does not know her status or she knows it and still continues to have sex (with or without medication). For the curable STIs this is totally irrelevant as the infected person can still transmit the infection until the medication ends (in which case she will be fully cured anyway).
(ii) In brackets it is the probability within a high risk group

4. Probability of catching an STI if you have 10 unprotected intercourses with prostitutes offering bareback:
Genital Herpes: 94.5%  (if not suppressed)
Genital Herpes: 58.4%  (if suppressed)                   
Gonorrhoea: 7.3% 
Chlamydia: 18.3% 
Syphilis: 0.32%   
HPV/Genital Warts: 65% 
Hepatitis B: 0.04% 
HIV: 0.002%  (i.e. 1 in 50 thousand) (if the not in antiretroviral therapy )
HIV: 0.0008% (i.e. 1 in 125 thousand) (if in antiretroviral therapy)

As you can see if you gamble with your life it is extremely likely to “win” plenty of nasty STIs (Herpes, HPV, Chlamydia and Gonorrhoea). You might also get “very lucky” and even “win” HIV. Yes getting hit and killed by car is 1 in 8000 but many people do get killed by cars every single day. Also the probability of royal flush in poker is only 1/649,740=0.00015%, yet in a large casino it does happens every week.

I would like to conclude with the obvious:
DO NEVER GET COMPLACENT AND ALWAYS USE CONDOMs.

Sources:
1. External Link/Members Only
2. External Link/Members Only
3. External Link/Members Only
4. External Link/Members Only

[cjkanye02]

Those numbers do sound high. They must be very hard to transmit via OWO or RO as I've never caught anything after 250+ punts.

Herpes worries me as there is no way to protect against it, but it seems very rare in the community right? If these numbers are accurate it would spread like wildfire.

[Jason]

These numbers are for unprotected VAGINAL intercourse. Also HPV cannot be diagnosed unless there are visible warts and you rarely get tested for Genital herpes and most of the times is asymptomatic. 

The transmission from OWO is much lower than from penetration (for HIV is virtually non-existent) and from RO is extremely low. What I propose is to always use condoms for PENETRATION sex. And although I personally often do receive OWO I never understood why it is so overhyped. For me there is very little difference in the sensation especially if you use normal condoms as opposed to “extra safe”. To me the only logical explanation for those punters who complain about absence of OWO seems to be that they cannot get it up otherwise. I can be wrong but I believe that that’s the primary reason for someone to want OWO.

[Strawberry]

Those numbers do sound high. They must be very hard to transmit via OWO or RO as I've never caught anything after 250+ punts.

Herpes worries me as there is no way to protect against it, but it seems very rare in the community right? If these numbers are accurate it would spread like wildfire.

75% of the adult population is supposed to have been exposed to the herpes virus. This american website claims 90% of the US population have been exposed to either HSV-1 or 2. External Link/Members Only

Specialist herpes website claims 75% exposure to HSV-1 by the age of 50, and that genital herpes symptoms can be result of HSV-1 contact via oral sex. External Link/Members Only

[smiths]

These numbers are for unprotected VAGINAL intercourse. Also HPV cannot be diagnosed unless there are visible warts and you rarely get tested for Genital herpes and most of the times is asymptomatic. 

The transmission from OWO is much lower than from penetration (for HIV is virtually non-existent) and from RO is extremely low. What I propose is to always use condoms for PENETRATION sex. And although I personally often do receive OWO I never understood why it is so overhyped. For me there is very little difference in the sensation especially if you use normal condoms as opposed to “extra safe”. To me the only logical explanation for those punters who complain about absence of OWO seems to be that they cannot get it up otherwise. I can be wrong but I believe that that’s the primary reason for someone to want OWO.

You said it, for you there is very little difference between OW and OWO, for me there is irrespective of the condom used so you are wrong as far as i am concerned. Plus i have zero interest in having my cock sucked through a condom, a wank would be more fun.

As to STI facts and figures i take them with a huge pinch of salt personally, no one knows how many people actually bother to get checked out at all. That includes WGs and punters as well as others of course.

Knowing that i have no idea of the actual risk i am taking with an individual WG who doesnt advertise she offers BB who i can avoid obviously. So i punt taking the risks i am prepared to take and do the best i can do, go to the GUM to get myself checked out quartely.

[Jason]

You said it, for you there is very little difference between OW and OWO, for me there is irrespective of the condom used so you are wrong as far as i am concerned. Plus i have zero interest in having my cock sucked through a condom, a wank would be more fun.

As to STI facts and figures i take them with a huge pinch of salt personally, no one knows how many people actually bother to get checked out at all. That includes WGs and punters as well as others of course.

Knowing that i have no idea of the actual risk i am taking with an individual WG who doesnt advertise she offers BB who i can avoid obviously. So i punt taking the risks i am prepared to take and do the best i can do, go to the GUM to get myself checked out quartely.

The percentages of infected population were derived from the diagnosed cases but also taking into account the percentage of the population that got tested. I also considered the probability for someone to visit a clinic in the light of symptoms vs no symptoms and what is the probability an STI to be asymptomatic. That was very critical and I am confident about these estimates being correct with 0.01% accuracy.

As for OWO I was aware about your view on it but I rarely see anyone else sharing it. I am actually curious to hear further views on OWO from others. For me the only reason I punt with girls offering OWO/CIM is not because of the service itself but because I observed it is a good indicator of whether proper French kissing is on offer. It is VERY VERY VERY seldom to find a girl that offers only OW but does offer FK with tongue.

[smiths]

The percentages of infected population were derived from the diagnosed cases but also taking into account the percentage of the population that got tested. I also considered the probability for someone to visit a clinic in the light of symptoms vs no symptoms and what is the probability an STI to be asymptomatic. That was very critical and I am confident about these estimates being correct with 0.01% accuracy.

As for OWO I was aware about your view on it but I rarely see anyone else sharing it. I am actually curious to hear further views on OWO from others. For me the only reason I punt with girls offering OWO/CIM is not because of the service itself but because I observed it is a good indicator of whether proper French kissing is on offer. It is VERY VERY VERY seldom to find a girl that offers only OW but does offer FK with tongue.

Many have posted about wanting OWO in the time i have been a member on here.

[KentAde]

I'm with smiths on this one. Been punting over 25 years, and never have covered oral, and for the last 4-5 years always seek CIM on punts and have never caught a STI. Last check of mine was last month. Maybe I'm lucky.....

PS Married aswell.....

[smiths]

I'm with smiths on this one. Been punting over 25 years, and never have covered oral, and for the last 4-5 years always seek CIM on punts and have never caught a STI. Last check of mine was last month. Maybe I'm lucky.....

So thats you in addition to me then at least.

[Jason]

I am not against OWO and as I said it is relatively low risk activity and I do often receive it. But for me its absence is not a deal breaker as it is not something that makes a substantial difference nor it makes the entire experience any better. French kissing on the other hand –albeit for me not a deal breaker either- does change/improve the entire experience significantly and therefore it is a decisive factor.
 
Assuming 2 girls offering excellent service delivery; one super-gorgeous girl who offers OW (and FK) and one cute girl who offers OWO/CIM/Swallow (and FK), I would always pick up the former unfazed by the OWO/CIM/Swallow offered by the latter. And I am sure I am not the only one thinking this way.

[sarahjayneleeds]

I am not against OWO and as I said it is relatively low risk activity and I do often receive it. But for me its absence is not a deal breaker as it is not something that makes a substantial difference nor makes the entire experience any better. French kissing on the other hand –albeit for me not a deal breaking either- does change/improve the entire experience significantly and therefore it is a decisive factor.
 
Assuming 2 girls offering excellent service delivery; one super-gorgeous girl who offers OW (and FK) and one cute girl who offers OWO/CIM/Swallow (and FK), I would always pick up the former unfazed by the OWO/CIM/Swallow offered by the latter. And I am sure I am not the only one thinking this way.

So do you mean you see it as less risk because the first one doesn't do CIM and swallow?

[Luke]

I think he means less risk and fk

[sarahjayneleeds]

I think he means less risk and fk

Yeah I think the FK was in both it doesn't mean anything anyway I don't offer CIM or swallow but pre-cum is usually present regardless so I can't see how the risk is reduced unless it's OW.

[mattylondon]

There are some pathetic utter morons out there who exercise bareback sex with prostitutes and even advocate it by bringing examples of that catching HIV is less likely than getting hit and killed by a car or a thunderbolt.

Look, you may think they're morons. I may even agree with you that people who do this, especially with let's face it, very promiscuous women such as prostitutes are taking a big risk. And many punters are very promiscuous too. I guess most of us are but not on the same level as a prostitute, of course. However, both parties are adults, so let them decide as adults what they want to do and with who.

What's the point of all these figures? You're not going to change a single person's view on this. People will do and enjoy what they want to do. People are well aware of the risks. For many, with regards to owo, it's about risk to reward. I'm prepared to take the risk with owo because quite frankly, I'd rather wank myself off rather than be sucked through a condom. No thanks. Most sensible people know that they probably shouldn't do bareback penetration, but in the heat of the moment things happen. It happens on a Friday and Saturday night too, just the same.

And most people know very well that bareback sex in general feels better, with a trusted women, hence the temptation and extremely high demand for it in punting. There are people on here who say they'd never do it. Have never done it. I think a lot of people, including prossies are lying. I know dozens of prostitutes who've offered me it, behind closed doors. Depends on many factors. No punter's experience is the same.

I see this sort of thread on SAAFE and wonder if that's where it belongs or on an NHS forum. 

[Jason]

So do you mean you see it as less risk because the first one doesn't do CIM and swallow?

No I meant that I would favour the better looks over the unprotected oral services. And no I don't consider the girls offering OWO/CIM riskier than those offering only OW because after all I can choose to use a condom if I want to (something that would make the risks virtually equal to those offering  only OW). Perhaps sometimes I would dismiss girls offering “swallow” because this is indeed a riskier activity – (and entirely pointless/overhyped in my view as it takes place after ejaculation).

However in my experience absence of OWO strongly correlates with absence of proper FK, so after all, I do end up often favouring girls providing OWO/CIM and dismissing those who do not because I assume that they would also not FK properly. To select a girl offering only OW I must be sure that FK is indeed provided although there are exceptional cases where the combination of price, looks and service delivery are so good that may convince me to overlook the absence of FK. A bit complicated selection process I would say. 

Look, you may think they're morons. I may even agree with you that people who do this, especially with let's face it, very promiscuous women such as prostitutes are taking a big risk. And many punters are very promiscuous too. I guess most of us are but not on the same level as a prostitute, of course. However, both parties are adults, so let them decide as adults what they want to do and with who.

What's the point of all these figures? You're not going to change a single person's view on this. People will do and enjoy what they want to do. People are well aware of the risks. For many, with regards to owo, it's about risk to reward. I'm prepared to take the risk with owo because quite frankly, I'd rather wank myself off rather than be sucked through a condom. No thanks. Most sensible people know that they probably shouldn't do bareback penetration, but in the heat of the moment things happen. It happens on a Friday and Saturday night too, just the same.

And most people know very well that bareback sex in general feels better, with a trusted women, hence the temptation and extremely high demand for it in punting. There are people on here who say they'd never do it. Have never done it. I think a lot of people, including prossies are lying. I know dozens of prostitutes who've offered me it, behind closed doors. Depends on many factors. No punter's experience is the same.

I see this sort of thread on SAAFE and wonder if that's where it belongs or on an NHS forum.

Those who exercise bareback vaginal sex with prostitutes are morons. There is no debate on that. But there also the utter morons who advocate it by saying bullshits like “look catching an STI is as probable as getting hit by a car so there is no difference between bareback and crossing a road”. Well not only their argument is a fallacy but it is also much more probable than they think and even more probable within a bareback community. Also some people do get complacent despite knowing it is wrong. This thread is different from the NHS or SAAFE ones as the former just gives general diagnose and often confusing for the reader figures and the latter are discussion by whining prossies and not taken seriously.

[mattylondon]

 
Those who exercise bareback vaginal sex with prostitutes are morons. There is no debate on that. But there also the utter morons who advocate it by saying bullshits like “look catching an STI is as probable as getting hit by a car so there is no difference between bareback and crossing a road”. Well not only their argument is a fallacy but it is also much more probable than they think and even more probable within a bareback community. Also some people do get complacent despite knowing it is wrong. This thread is different from the NHS or SAAFE ones as the former just gives general diagnose and often confusing for the reader figures and the latter are discussion by whining prossies and not taken seriously.

I wouldn't argue with any of your observations in general but you do realise that you have no idea what that prostitute is doing behind closed doors with other punters or any sexual partners she may have, don't you? For all you know, just before she met you she was having bareback sex with the last regular or some other guy. And likewise, the same applies to that punter.

I could argue that any sex with a woman as sexually promiscuous as a prostitute is a potentially risky enterprise. Of course there are big differences in sexual risks, depending on what you do, so I agree. Perhaps better advice is for those who are that concerned, just make sure they protect themselves by being checked regularly because you sure as hell cannot legislate for what the prostitute gets up to. Or perhaps even better, stop punting prostitutes. 

I'm just of the opinion that you're initial post, whilst well intentioned, won't change a single person's behaviour on a punting forum.

[Jason]

I wouldn't argue with any of your observations in general but you do realise that you have no idea what that prostitute is doing behind closed doors with other punters or any sexual partners she may have, don't you? For all you know, just before she met you she was having bareback sex with the last regular or some other guy. And likewise, the same applies to that punter.

I could argue that any sex with a woman as sexually promiscuous as a prostitute is a potentially risky enterprise. Of course there are big differences in sexual risks, depending on what you do, so I agree. Perhaps better advice is for those who are that concerned, just make sure they protect themselves by being checked regularly because you sure as hell cannot legislate for what the prostitute gets up to. Or perhaps even better, stop punting prostitutes. 

I'm just of the opinion that you're initial post, whilst well intentioned, won't change a single person's behaviour on a punting forum.

This thread is against bareback vaginal sex; not about the risks of punting nor about the risks of OWO. The main advice is to not listen to the barebacker's bullshits and never get complacent and always use condoms for penetration sex. As for me exactly because I punt on a weekly basis I advocate safe punting.

[vt]

Cheers for the info Jason, confirms what I already believed re Bareback. Stay safe guys!

[random]

I am not against OWO and as I said it is relatively low risk activity and I do often receive it. But for me its absence is not a deal breaker as it is not something that makes a substantial difference

OWO compared to OW doesn't seem to make a big difference to me either. I've found that the technique is much more important. If it's OW then as you say the type of condom and how it's put on is also a factor.